2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[tiger_deF]

The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

That is just not a great look for the first potential MDR system. A wall of strong mid-to-upper shear with a sharp trough or cutoff as it moves NE of the Lesser Antilles has stayed persistent between 72 and 144 hrs over the past day or two of operational runs. May have to pay attention to the MDR setup if perhaps a second system can organize behind the first, where it could slip into better upper support or pocket of favorablility. But my enthusiasm is very much lacking so far for the first.

And one thing that has made its presence known the last few years is the TUTT!  And we have them here once again quite apparent in the fcst.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well

The ITCZ is suppressed by a few deg farther S than normal for this time of year.  That is generally a sign things are not good in the MDR.

[cptcatz]

And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, cptcatz said:

And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.

12Z UKMET still has a low end TS:

12Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.2N 36.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 48 10.2N 36.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 60 10.9N 38.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 13.08.2026 72 11.0N 41.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 14.08.2026 84 11.5N 44.1W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 96 12.8N 46.9W 1009 33
0000UTC 15.08.2026 108 14.4N 50.2W 1010 36
1200UTC 15.08.2026 120 15.8N 54.2W 1011 39
0000UTC 16.08.2026 132 17.6N 57.5W 1009 41
1200UTC 16.08.2026 144 18.9N 60.8W 1008 41
0000UTC 17.08.2026 156 20.0N 63.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 17.08.2026 168 21.4N 66.5W 1008 35

—————

Edit: 0Z 8/11 UKMET:

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.9N  36.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.08.2026   36  10.9N  36.6W     1011            25
    0000UTC 13.08.2026   48  10.6N  38.8W     1009            30
    1200UTC 13.08.2026   60  11.2N  41.5W     1009            31
    0000UTC 14.08.2026   72  11.9N  44.6W     1009            31
    1200UTC 14.08.2026   84  13.0N  48.1W     1010            33
    0000UTC 15.08.2026   96  14.2N  52.2W     1011            33
    1200UTC 15.08.2026  108  15.7N  55.8W     1011            36
    0000UTC 16.08.2026  120  16.9N  60.6W     1010            34
    1200UTC 16.08.2026  132  17.6N  64.0W     1010            33
    0000UTC 17.08.2026  144              CEASED TRACKING

[NorthHillsWx]

Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no 

[GaWx]

 The further E AOI is now Invest 92L.

 UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 26
1200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 36
0000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 34
1200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 35
0000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

[vortex95]

On 8/10/2026 at 3:53 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no 

The wind shear "barrier" along 20N is quite impressive.  So 92L and what is behind it don't stand a chance once they gain more latitude.

93L well to the N in the basin is likely a TD/weak TS now.  Sheared, but LLCC has become more defined and convection is persisting E of the center, plus its fast forward motion is likely augmenting the winds on the S quad.  NHC gives it 40/40 but it could be declared at any time.  It's small and will not last long if it becomes a TC.

[GaWx]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located around 700 miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development during the next few days, and a
tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[GaWx]

Invest 92L:
0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 28
0000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 29
0000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

 The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon although the 0Z UKMET has it just as a TW moving similarly to 92L into the E Caribbean:

8AM TWO:

Now up to 20/30:

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some 
development of this system during the next several days while it 
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[NorthHillsWx]

93L likely became a brief tropical storm overnight based on the LLC seen on visible this morning but since that time convection has been ripped well to east of center. Might be a numbers booster in post season analysis 

[smokeybandit]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

93L likely became a brief tropical storm overnight based on the LLC seen on visible this morning but since that time convection has been ripped well to east of center. Might be a numbers booster in post season analysis 

I call them emotional support named storms.

[GaWx]

C

27 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

I call them emotional support named storms.

Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

C

Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.

Based on current presentation this might be the rare and infamous single advisory storm 

[WxWatcher007]

I ended up creating threads for Cristobal and 92L. Probably going to need one for a future 93L at some point given the models shifting attention to that wave. Not a surprise as often the lead waves end up being sacrificial for the trailing ones in marginal to hostile environments. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty surprising to see this much MDR activity in a strong nino in August. Heck even some recent Augusts with La Niña couldn’t produce in MDR 

[GaWx]

The E MDR AOI is now Invest 94L.

[NorthHillsWx]

I know it’s always overzealous with the tropics but the recent GFS run shows 4 separate MDR systems in a row including 94L and 92L, the current invests. While Caribbean shear and the TUTT over SW Atlantic persists this active wave could really boost season numbers tho I doubt any get far west or very strong 

[cptcatz]

I feel like this is the first August in many years where there are healthy waves coming off Africa without Saharan dust, and yet they can't do anything because of the crazy shear. If that shear wasn't there, this could have been an impressive August that we haven't seen in a while. Oh well.

[GaWx]

For the first run in many days, the UKMET (12Z) has no Atlantic basin TC.

[qg_omega]

On 8/12/2026 at 6:52 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

Pretty surprising to see this much MDR activity in a strong nino in August. Heck even some recent Augusts with La Niña couldn’t produce in MDR 

https://x.com/ryanweather/status/2088279380971680057?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like that activity was a mirage. A lot of waves, but extremely hostile conditions. We'll need to see if any of those seedlings can survive into the western Atlantic I guess, but even there conditions don't look great. Might need to wait for better climo to arrive before any breakthrough is possible. 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like that activity was a mirage. A lot of waves, but extremely hostile conditions. We'll need to see if any of those seedlings can survive into the western Atlantic I guess, but even there conditions don't look great. Might need to wait for better climo to arrive before any breakthrough is possible. 

Total whiff by models, but testament to just how hostile the basin is with El Niño roaring 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Total whiff by models, but testament to just how hostile the basin is with El Niño roaring 

And totally expected.  Plume after plume of dust, a lot of subsidence and shear to knock back even the most robust looking wave that rolls of Africa.  Caribbean looks to be shut down for at least the next 2-3 weeks and likely longer. Hard to imagine any meaningful ACE getting racked up in that area.  Anything of note I think will have to come out of the SW Atlantic or maybe the Gulf.  CSU ACE of 50 is starting to look generous.  Even with peak Climo coming into view if we don't see some relaxation in the hostile atmospheric conditions I would not expect much.  We'll see what things look like as we move into September but August looks to remain very quiet.  

[Windspeed]

I am not confident we will see substantial ACE accrued in the Atlantic Basin this year. We may get a TC that finds its way into the right synoptic pattern at the right time to become a hurricane, regardless of land threat, but I do not forsee any long tracking systems remaining powerful for a duration that would stack ACE points. There will just be too much airmass expanding away from the Pacific from the mid-to-upper levels shearing off whatever might develop in the Atlantic MDR.

[bigtenfan]

While I do understand that even in a hostile El Nino year, a storm can sneak through  and create  widespread destruction, as a SE Florida homeowner I am very happy to be reading these posts.

What I find most amazing is that here we are on August 16 and the main 2026 Atlantic season thread is only 6 pager so far.

[TheDreamTraveler]

On 8/16/2026 at 4:07 AM, Windspeed said:

I am not confident we will see substantial ACE accrued in the Atlantic Basin this year. We may get a TC that finds its way into the right synoptic pattern at the right time to become a hurricane, regardless of land threat, but I do not forsee any long tracking systems remaining powerful for a duration that would stack ACE points. There will just be too much airmass expanding away from the Pacific from the mid-to-upper levels shearing off whatever might develop in the Atlantic MDR.

Climatology always finds a way to break free even from the most hostile conditions. I'm sure we'll see at least one long tracking hurricane in the next 1 1/2 months. We had Joaquin in 2015 and that one was originally forecast to pull another hurricane Sandy into the east coast but that eventually didn't pan out. Joaquin was able to find the perfect spot to turn into a high end category 4 and hang around for a while. 

[Windspeed]

Climatology always finds a way to break free even from the most hostile conditions. I'm sure we'll see at least one long tracking hurricane in the next 1 1/2 months. We had Joaquin in 2015 and that one was originally forecast to pull another hurricane Sandy into the east coast but that eventually didn't pan out. Joaquin was able to find the perfect spot to turn into a high end category 4 and hang around for a while. 

A long-tracking hurricane? Maybe. Perhaps a few long-tracking TCs regardless. One that remains powerful enough to stack ACE? There in lies the problem, or lack of a problem, depending on perspective. Yes, Joaquin occurred during an El Niño season. But you should read up on that TC's meteorological history. Joaquin did not form in the MDR, nor was it even associated with an AEW. That particular TC formed out of a retrograding mid-to-upper cutoff interacting with a remnant surface trough. Despite its stall and eventual high-end intensity, such a system doesn't happen with frequency even during active seasons. My previous post is merely stating, sure, climatology might get us a hurricane, or even a few of them this season. I just doubt we'll see any CV majors cross the MDR and rack up significant ACE with walls of shear. Something might develop, may even flirt with hurricane status, or become a hurricane, but it will probably struggle to reach or maintain major status very long, if at all, to pump up those numbers. Mind you, these comments should also not be confused with significant landfalls or impacts. That could still occur. Yada, yada, yada, it only takes one. At any rate, we're quickly approaching the heart of the season. We shall see.

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Climatology always finds a way to break free even from the most hostile conditions. I'm sure we'll see at least one long tracking hurricane in the next 1 1/2 months. We had Joaquin in 2015 and that one was originally forecast to pull another hurricane Sandy into the east coast but that eventually didn't pan out. Joaquin was able to find the perfect spot to turn into a high end category 4 and hang around for a while. 

Andrew in Aug 1992 was among the "luckiest" intense hurricanes I have seen.  It struggled for days N of the Caribbean due to an upper low.  In fact, one could argue it actually lost its sfc circulation for a time as recon found only 1015 mb pressure!  FL winds were still near hurricane-force though due to gradient from high pressure to the N, so they keep it going.

But then the upper low moved away to the SW and a strong 500 mb high built due N, resulting in nearly ideal conditions, and we saw what happened.

1992 was a "quiet" hurricane season overall, but reanalysis has shown 4-5 systems that were at least of min TS strength (two hurricanes) that were never declared operationally.  They will all likely get added once the reanalysis project reaches this year.