2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[tiger_deF]

The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

That is just not a great look for the first potential MDR system. A wall of strong mid-to-upper shear with a sharp trough or cutoff as it moves NE of the Lesser Antilles has stayed persistent between 72 and 144 hrs over the past day or two of operational runs. May have to pay attention to the MDR setup if perhaps a second system can organize behind the first, where it could slip into better upper support or pocket of favorablility. But my enthusiasm is very much lacking so far for the first.

And one thing that has made its presence known the last few years is the TUTT!  And we have them here once again quite apparent in the fcst.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well

The ITCZ is suppressed by a few deg farther S than normal for this time of year.  That is generally a sign things are not good in the MDR.

[cptcatz]

And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, cptcatz said:

And just like that GFS goes poof for everything. As Green Day once said, wake me up when El nino ends.

12Z UKMET still has a low end TS:

12Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.2N 36.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2026 48 10.2N 36.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 13.08.2026 60 10.9N 38.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 13.08.2026 72 11.0N 41.4W 1009 30
0000UTC 14.08.2026 84 11.5N 44.1W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 96 12.8N 46.9W 1009 33
0000UTC 15.08.2026 108 14.4N 50.2W 1010 36
1200UTC 15.08.2026 120 15.8N 54.2W 1011 39
0000UTC 16.08.2026 132 17.6N 57.5W 1009 41
1200UTC 16.08.2026 144 18.9N 60.8W 1008 41
0000UTC 17.08.2026 156 20.0N 63.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 17.08.2026 168 21.4N 66.5W 1008 35

—————

Edit: 0Z 8/11 UKMET:

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.9N  36.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.08.2026   36  10.9N  36.6W     1011            25
    0000UTC 13.08.2026   48  10.6N  38.8W     1009            30
    1200UTC 13.08.2026   60  11.2N  41.5W     1009            31
    0000UTC 14.08.2026   72  11.9N  44.6W     1009            31
    1200UTC 14.08.2026   84  13.0N  48.1W     1010            33
    0000UTC 15.08.2026   96  14.2N  52.2W     1011            33
    1200UTC 15.08.2026  108  15.7N  55.8W     1011            36
    0000UTC 16.08.2026  120  16.9N  60.6W     1010            34
    1200UTC 16.08.2026  132  17.6N  64.0W     1010            33
    0000UTC 17.08.2026  144              CEASED TRACKING

[NorthHillsWx]

Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no 

[GaWx]

 The further E AOI is now Invest 92L.

 UKMET: just S of PR as a dissipating minimal TS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 38.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 36 10.5N 38.6W 1010 26
1200UTC 13.08.2026 48 11.4N 41.6W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.08.2026 60 11.8N 44.6W 1011 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 72 12.8N 48.1W 1011 30
0000UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.0N 51.9W 1011 33
1200UTC 15.08.2026 96 15.3N 56.1W 1011 36
0000UTC 16.08.2026 108 16.2N 60.5W 1010 34
1200UTC 16.08.2026 120 17.0N 64.2W 1010 35
0000UTC 17.08.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

[vortex95]

On 8/10/2026 at 3:53 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no 

The wind shear "barrier" along 20N is quite impressive.  So 92L and what is behind it don't stand a chance once they gain more latitude.

93L well to the N in the basin is likely a TD/weak TS now.  Sheared, but LLCC has become more defined and convection is persisting E of the center, plus its fast forward motion is likely augmenting the winds on the S quad.  NHC gives it 40/40 but it could be declared at any time.  It's small and will not last long if it becomes a TC.

[GaWx]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located around 700 miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development during the next few days, and a
tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[GaWx]

Invest 92L:
0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 27
0000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 28
0000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 30
1200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 29
0000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

 The TW following 92L is also making some noise on the models and is now a lemon although the 0Z UKMET has it just as a TW moving similarly to 92L into the E Caribbean:

8AM TWO:

Now up to 20/30:

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some 
development of this system during the next several days while it 
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.