2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[tiger_deF]

The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

That is just not a great look for the first potential MDR system. A wall of strong mid-to-upper shear with a sharp trough or cutoff as it moves NE of the Lesser Antilles has stayed persistent between 72 and 144 hrs over the past day or two of operational runs. May have to pay attention to the MDR setup if perhaps a second system can organize behind the first, where it could slip into better upper support or pocket of favorablility. But my enthusiasm is very much lacking so far for the first.

And one thing that has made its presence known the last few years is the TUTT!  And we have them here once again quite apparent in the fcst.

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well

The ITCZ is suppressed by a few deg farther S than normal for this time of year.  That is generally a sign things are not good in the MDR.