2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Stormchaserchuck1]

An El Nino is likely to develop by the Summer of 2026. The ENSO subsurface is very warm

Since 1985, the most extreme ENSO subsurface anomalies for this time of the year, 8/10 (80%) became favored warm/cold ENSO state later that year. 

The CPC on March 12 has put up an El Nino watch for 2026:

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

They are giving an 80% chance that August-Sept-Oct (peak Hurricane season) will be El Nino

In 1995, a positive phase to the AMO cycle began, and a major uptick in Atlantic Hurricane activity occurred. 

Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states (using the RONI):

El Nino (7 years): 12.1 TS, 5.0 Hurr, 2.6 MH

Neutral (11 years): 16.1 TS, 8.0 Hurr, 3.4 MH

La Nina (13 years): 17.4 TS, 8.4 Hurr, 4.3 MH

Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

El Nino has been associated with much lower activity, and that occurs back to 1950 and before. 

Since 1995, Strongest 3 El Nino's (ASO>+1.2): (3 years): 10.3 TS, 3.7 Hurr, 1.7 MH

Since 1995, Weakest 4 El Nino's (ASO<+1.1): (4 years): 13.5 TS, 6.0 Hurr, 3.3 MH

So, there has been a pretty big difference between the El Nino being weaker or stronger for the Hurricane season in terms of total activity. It's important to monitor ENSO going forward, current projections are probably right around +1.0 ASO RONI. 

AMO

CPC AMO Index stopped updating January 2023

I made a raw and smoothed graph of the AMO 1995 to Jan 2023:

Raw

Smoothed

In Summer/Fall 2023, the Atlantic was record warm, and then Summer/Fall 2024 was warmer than that. They were the #2 and #1 AMO Seasons on record, so the trend continues to be Up-general, although the 2025 Season was much colder Atlantic SSTs. Record warm SSTs in 2023 helped 20 Named Storms occur (4th highest all time) in a +1.1c ASO El Nino. Last season (2025) was a colder AMO in Weak La Nina, and had 13 Named Storms, 4 Major Hurricanes. 

Anomalies in a bunch

Something that we have seen in the past few seasons is Top 1% Rapid Intensification with certain storms. 

2023 - Lee

2024 - Milton (honorable mention to Beryl, the earliest Cat 5 on record)

2025 - Erin and Mellisa 

What are some other indicators to how active the season will be? 

April-May Atlantic Sea-level pressure

Since 1995, the most active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons minus the least active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons, have this preceding April-May sea-level pressure anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere

-AO and -NAO in April-May precedes more active Atlantic Hurricane seasons

+AO and +NAO in April-May precedes less active Atlantic Hurricane seasons

Atlantic SSTs

Current global SSTA [time sensitive]

Never too early to start discussing! Thoughts?

Related Discussions:

[Windspeed]

If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one while recalling Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It will be interesting to see if RONI vs ONI makes a difference this season, because RONI will be ~-0.5c vs ONI. That difference in Moderate Nino range is historically about 2 NS/yr

2023 was +1.1c RONI (ASO), and +1.6c ONI and that season had 20 Named Storms, and slightly above average ACE. 

(SSTAs in the Atlantic so far this year are nothing close to 2023). 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michaeljames said:

With the Climate Prediction Center noting an 80% chance of El Niño for the peak hurricane months, the 2026 Atlantic season could be heavily influenced by these conditions. Historically, strong ENSO anomalies often lead to shifts in storm frequency and intensity. The discussion here provides a good perspective on how early subsurface signals can forecast seasonal hurricane patterns.

 Moderate to strong El Niños also often have a lot to say about prevailing tracks and direction of movement. From what I’ve researched of Nino seasons, there’s a tendency for more of the MDR tracks to not go as far west in the basin vs non-Nino seasons. They tend to gain latitude more quickly and recurve further east. But these are just averages and it takes only one to make for a very bad season.

 In addition to increased shear, El Nino seasons may tend to be less moist in the tropics.

Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod.

[Wannabehippie]

On 3/15/2026 at 12:49 AM, Windspeed said:

If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one while recalling Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.

Might get some closer to home storms in the GoM, or maybe some sub-tropical storms out of the areas of shear. There seems to be a lot of very warm water in areas above 24 degrees north.
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since 2011, the 2 El Nino Atlantic Hurricane seasons have looked like this

2023

2015

In contrast, the Strongest La Nina season since 2011 looked like this:

2020

Tied 2nd Strongest La nina season.. 2016

Tied 2nd Strongest La nina season.. 2022

You can see generally more E -> W trajectory of storms in La Nina seasons vs more S -> N in El Nino seasons. 

[Chinook]

First ever March hurricane upcoming

[WxWatcher007]

19 hours ago, Chinook said:

First ever March hurricane upcoming

Don't ever change, GFS.  

[Chinook]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Don't ever change, GFS.  

It used to be that the Canadian global model had a lot of tropical cyclone candidates, sub-1000mb lows, during the warm season. I feel like they have changed a major component of that.

[LoboLeader1]

On 3/16/2026 at 6:57 PM, GaWx said:

 Moderate to strong El Niños also often have a lot to say about prevailing tracks and direction of movement. From what I’ve researched of Nino seasons, there’s a tendency for more of the MDR tracks to not go as far west in the basin vs non-Nino seasons. They tend to gain latitude more quickly and recurve further east. But these are just averages and it takes only one to make for a very bad season.

 In addition to increased shear, El Nino seasons may tend to be less moist in the tropics.

Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod.

I concur that it only takes one for a very bad season, it's just a matter of when in seeing a strong cane here in the northeast. 

[vortex95]

On 3/27/2026 at 3:45 PM, LoboLeader1 said:

I concur that it only takes one for a very bad season, it's just a matter of when in seeing a strong cane here in the northeast. 

It's now been over 34 years since the last hurricane landfall in New England or LI.  This is the longest gap by a considerable margin for the region going back to 1851.  If you told me in 1995, the next 30 years would be the most active Atlantic TC period on record, but no NEUS landfalls, I would have said, "NO WAY!!!"  Yet, it has happened.

NEUS may be more vulnerable in "quiet" periods dictated by the AMO, such as 1970-1994.  3 landfalls then, but that doesn't explain the record 5 in 22 years 1938-1960 during the active period 1926-1969.  One reason could be that during "quiet" periods, the MDR being less active, and more "home grown" storms that form closer to the E Coast, increasing the odds of a direct hit.

[AdMC]

I mean are we not counting Sandy on a technicality?

11 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

It's now been over 34 years since the last hurricane landfall in New England or LI.  This is the longest gap by a considerable margin for the region going back to 1851.  If you told me in 1995, the next 30 years would be the most active Atlantic TC period on record, but no NEUS landfalls, I would have said, "NO WAY!!!"  Yet, it has happened.

NEUS may be more vulnerable in "quiet" periods dictated by the AMO, such as 1970-1994.  3 landfalls then, but that doesn't explain the record 5 in 22 years 1938-1960 during the active period 1926-1969.  One reason could be that during "quiet" periods, the MDR being less active, and more "home grown" storms that form closer to the E Coast, increasing the odds of a direct hit.

 

[vortex95]

22 minutes ago, AdMC said:

I mean are we not counting Sandy on a technicality?

 

Sandy, whatever you chose to call it at at landfall, made landfall over southern NJ.  That's more the Mid-Atlantic than NEUS.   I was confined things to a hurricane center crossing the New England coast or Long Island.  We've had lots of side swipes from hurricanes in the NEUS, but for a direct landfall, sensible wx impacts are typically much greater, esp. for wind and power outages.

[GaWx]

JB is going to bring his numbers way down per what he recently said. He said 2015 may be a good analog.

[Retrobuc]

On 3/31/2026 at 12:09 AM, AdMC said:

I mean are we not counting Sandy on a technicality?

 

Yea, if you lived there during that storm, it was a hurricane.  I dont care what the professionals refer to it as.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

[GaWx]

On 3/31/2026 at 12:28 PM, GaWx said:

JB is going to bring his numbers way down per what he recently said. He said 2015 may be a good analog.

Makes perfect sense to me.

From JB:

April 5, 2026

The forecast numbers have been taken way down.
The Canadian model has been thrown out.
The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".
The closest analog is 2015.
The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.
Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.
There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
Early season Gulf or SE system a concern
The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.
Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible
The forecast numbers for the 2026 season

Total storms: 9-13
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
ACE Index: 85-105

The closest analog is 2015

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Makes perfect sense to me.

From JB:

April 5, 2026

The forecast numbers have been taken way down.
The Canadian model has been thrown out.
The European indicates a powerful El Niño and a negative AMO "look".
The closest analog is 2015.
The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.
Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.
There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.
Early season Gulf or SE system a concern
The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.
Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible
The forecast numbers for the 2026 season

Total storms: 9-13
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2
Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3
ACE Index: 85-105

The closest analog is 2015

Not a bad forecast. We still have above normal water temps so I wouldn’t go for a really low number. I would focus in on home grown systems. The MDR will likely be hostile with increased shear


.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 3/14/2026 at 3:53 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What are some other indicators to how active the season will be? 

April-May Atlantic Sea-level pressure

Since 1995, the most active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons minus the least active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons, have this preceding April-May sea-level pressure anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere

-AO and -NAO in April-May precedes more active Atlantic Hurricane seasons

+AO and +NAO in April-May precedes less active Atlantic Hurricane seasons

Early indication is a +NAO April, which is a bearish Atlantic season probability, with half of the analysis period still to go (Apr-May total is base period)

[WxWatcher007]

I’m currently thinking the under on the NS and H forecast.

[Windspeed]

I’m currently thinking the under on the NS and H forecast.

Ditto.

[gallopinggertie]

On 4/6/2026 at 8:18 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It’s weird that Sally wasn’t retired, having caused over $7 billion in damages.

[jconsor]

University of Arizona has a bold forecast, much more active than other forecasts to date: 9 hurricanes and 4 majors with an ACE of 155.  Their model is based on machine learning initialized with ECMWF seasonal forecast SSTs.  They cite forecast significantly above normal tropical Atlantic SSTs as the main factor.  News release:
https://has.arizona.edu/news/forecast-2026-hurricane-activities-over-north-atlantic

More technical summary:
https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-04/April-2026-Tropical-Cyclone-Forecast.pdf

Seasonal hurricane predictions that have been issued so far:
https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-prediction

Univ. of Arizona has a very good track record.  They started issuing Apr outlooks in 2022.  Their Jun forecasts were notably higher than almost all others in 2017, 2019 and 2023 and ended up verifying well (In Jun 2017 they forecast 181 ACE and actual was 225, while most other outlooks were in the 100-130 range).  In Jun 2019 they forecast 151 ACE and actual was 132, while most other outlooks were in the 80-105 range.  In Apr 2023, they forecast 163 ACE and actual was 148, while most other outlooks were in the 90-130 range).  Notice that all 3 years had El Nino conditions at the time of forecast initialization and the Nino was forecast to strengthen - but in 2017 and 2019 that strengthening failed to occur and in 2023 the Nino ended up weaker than many models had forecast and while it limited Atlantic activity to a degree, it was less impactful than expected.

In 2022, 2024 and 2025 their Apr outlooks were notably lower than almost all others (In 2022 UA forecast 129 ACE and actual was 96, while almost all other outlooks were in the 150-190 range. In 2024, they forecast 156 ACE and actual was 162, with almost all other outlooks in the 185-230 range.  In 2025, they forecast 110 ACE and actual was 133, with most other outlooks in the 145-190 range.) 

You can download all of the historical hurricane season prediction data for past years from the Univ of Barcelona site linked above.

Personally I would go with an ACE range of 80-130 right now.  Main reason is I believe the standing wave of low-level westerlies over the eastern Atlantic and west Africa will help lead to an Atlantic Nino, energize the W. African monsoon (WAM) and lead to an active wave train, while as we know El Nino influence on shear is mainly west of 60W.  Also, the persistent very warm SST anomalies in the NW Pacific from E of Japan to S of AK and the SW Pacific east of AU/NZ (e.g. negative IPO) along with the above-mentioned Atlantic Nino and African standing wave would likely lead to resistance toward WWBs reaching the eastern Pacific (with the focus remaining near the dateline).  This would tend to shift the Walker circulation west of a typical moderate to strong Nino.

I think there's a 55% chance RONI stays below strong Nino levels through Aug-Oct.  Not ruling out a strong Nino, but I think a super Nino RONI-wise is unlikely (<15%) through Aug-Oct. 

My main analog years are 1951, 1963, 1969, 2006, 2015, and 2018, with more emphasis on the first three given the strong WAM that prevailed.

[GaWx]

50 minutes ago, jconsor said:

University of Arizona has a bold forecast, much more active than other forecasts to date: 9 hurricanes and 4 majors with an ACE of 155.  Their model is based on machine learning initialized with ECMWF seasonal forecast SSTs.  They cite forecast significantly above normal tropical Atlantic SSTs as the main factor.  News release:
https://has.arizona.edu/news/forecast-2026-hurricane-activities-over-north-atlantic

More technical summary:
https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-04/April-2026-Tropical-Cyclone-Forecast.pdf

Seasonal hurricane predictions that have been issued so far:
https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-prediction

Univ. of Arizona has a very good track record.  They started issuing Apr outlooks in 2022.  Their Jun forecasts were notably higher than almost all others in 2017, 2019 and 2023 and ended up verifying well (In Jun 2017 they forecast 181 ACE and actual was 225, while most other outlooks were in the 100-130 range).  In Jun 2019 they forecast 151 ACE and actual was 132, while most other outlooks were in the 80-105 range.  In Apr 2023, they forecast 163 ACE and actual was 148, while most other outlooks were in the 90-130 range).  Notice that all 3 years had El Nino conditions at the time of forecast initialization and the Nino was forecast to strengthen - but in 2017 and 2019 that strengthening failed to occur and in 2023 the Nino ended up weaker than many models had forecast and while it limited Atlantic activity to a degree, it was less impactful than expected.

In 2022, 2024 and 2025 their Apr outlooks were notably lower than almost all others (In 2022 UA forecast 129 ACE and actual was 96, while almost all other outlooks were in the 150-190 range. In 2024, they forecast 156 ACE and actual was 162, with almost all other outlooks in the 185-230 range.  In 2025, they forecast 110 ACE and actual was 133, with most other outlooks in the 145-190 range.) 

You can download all of the historical hurricane season prediction data for past years from the Univ of Barcelona site linked above.

Personally I would go with an ACE range of 80-130 right now.  Main reason is I believe the standing wave of low-level westerlies over the eastern Atlantic and west Africa will help lead to an Atlantic Nino, energize the W. African monsoon (WAM) and lead to an active wave train, while as we know El Nino influence on shear is mainly west of 60W.  Also, the persistent very warm SST anomalies in the NW Pacific from E of Japan to S of AK and the SW Pacific east of AU/NZ (e.g. negative IPO) along with the above-mentioned Atlantic Nino and African standing wave would likely lead to resistance toward WWBs reaching the eastern Pacific (with the focus remaining near the dateline).  This would tend to shift the Walker circulation west of a typical moderate to strong Nino.

I think there's a 55% chance RONI stays below strong Nino levels through Aug-Oct.  Not ruling out a strong Nino, but I think a super Nino RONI-wise is unlikely (<15%) through Aug-Oct. 

My main analog years are 1951, 1963, 1969, 2006, 2015, and 2018, with more emphasis on the first three given the strong WAM that prevailed.

Thanks, Yaakov. Hoping the AZ forecast busts way too high as I’d like a quieter ACE for a change.