2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Stormchaserchuck1]

An El Nino is likely to develop by the Summer of 2026. The ENSO subsurface is very warm

Since 1985, the most extreme ENSO subsurface anomalies for this time of the year, 8/10 (80%) became favored warm/cold ENSO state later that year. 

The CPC on March 12 has put up an El Nino watch for 2026:

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

They are giving an 80% chance that August-Sept-Oct (peak Hurricane season) will be El Nino

In 1995, a positive phase to the AMO cycle began, and a major uptick in Atlantic Hurricane activity occurred. 

Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states (using the RONI):

El Nino (7 years): 12.1 TS, 5.0 Hurr, 2.6 MH

Neutral (11 years): 16.1 TS, 8.0 Hurr, 3.4 MH

La Nina (13 years): 17.4 TS, 8.4 Hurr, 4.3 MH

Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

El Nino has been associated with much lower activity, and that occurs back to 1950 and before. 

Since 1995, Strongest 3 El Nino's (ASO>+1.2): (3 years): 10.3 TS, 3.7 Hurr, 1.7 MH

Since 1995, Weakest 4 El Nino's (ASO<+1.1): (4 years): 13.5 TS, 6.0 Hurr, 3.3 MH

So, there has been a pretty big difference between the El Nino being weaker or stronger for the Hurricane season in terms of total activity. It's important to monitor ENSO going forward, current projections are probably right around +1.0 ASO RONI. 

AMO

CPC AMO Index stopped updating January 2023

I made a raw and smoothed graph of the AMO 1995 to Jan 2023:

Raw

Smoothed

In Summer/Fall 2023, the Atlantic was record warm, and then Summer/Fall 2024 was warmer than that. They were the #2 and #1 AMO Seasons on record, so the trend continues to be Up-general, although the 2025 Season was much colder Atlantic SSTs. Record warm SSTs in 2023 helped 20 Named Storms occur (4th highest all time) in a +1.1c ASO El Nino. Last season (2025) was a colder AMO in Weak La Nina, and had 13 Named Storms, 4 Major Hurricanes. 

Anomalies in a bunch

Something that we have seen in the past few seasons is Top 1% Rapid Intensification with certain storms. 

2023 - Lee

2024 - Milton (honorable mention to Beryl, the earliest Cat 5 on record)

2025 - Erin and Mellisa 

What are some other indicators to how active the season will be? 

April-May Atlantic Sea-level pressure

Since 1995, the most active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons minus the least active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons, have this preceding April-May sea-level pressure anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere

-AO and -NAO in April-May precedes more active Atlantic Hurricane seasons

+AO and +NAO in April-May precedes less active Atlantic Hurricane seasons

Atlantic SSTs

Current global SSTA [time sensitive]

Never too early to start discussing! Thoughts?

Related Discussions:

[Windspeed]

If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one while recalling Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It will be interesting to see if RONI vs ONI makes a difference this season, because RONI will be ~-0.5c vs ONI. That difference in Moderate Nino range is historically about 2 NS/yr

2023 was +1.1c RONI (ASO), and +1.6c ONI and that season had 20 Named Storms, and slightly above average ACE. 

(SSTAs in the Atlantic so far this year are nothing close to 2023). 

[michaeljames]

With the Climate Prediction Center noting an 80% chance of El Niño for the peak hurricane months, the 2026 Atlantic season could be heavily influenced by these conditions. Historically, strong ENSO anomalies often lead to shifts in storm frequency and intensity. The discussion here provides a good perspective on how early subsurface signals can forecast seasonal hurricane patterns.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michaeljames said:

With the Climate Prediction Center noting an 80% chance of El Niño for the peak hurricane months, the 2026 Atlantic season could be heavily influenced by these conditions. Historically, strong ENSO anomalies often lead to shifts in storm frequency and intensity. The discussion here provides a good perspective on how early subsurface signals can forecast seasonal hurricane patterns.

 Moderate to strong El Niños also often have a lot to say about prevailing tracks and direction of movement. From what I’ve researched of Nino seasons, there’s a tendency for more of the MDR tracks to not go as far west in the basin vs non-Nino seasons. They tend to gain latitude more quickly and recurve further east. But these are just averages and it takes only one to make for a very bad season.

 In addition to increased shear, El Nino seasons may tend to be less moist in the tropics.

Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod.