March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Weather Will]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What happened to all the glorious snow maps that were being posted the last couple days? Gone poof? Does that mean its over? No silly snow maps, so no chance of a storm? Fucking dead in here. Looking at you @Weather Will

The answer ofc is no. The h5 pattern largely looks the same, so potential remains. Devil is in the details- meaning, as usual, wave timing, interplay, and spacing. Sure its not a high probability given climo, but its silly to geek out over day 8-10 day snow maps then disappear when they go poof. Have some sticktoitiveness ffs.

Trough early next week looks very progressive.  Still many days away, but no model is spinning up a storm right now except for maybe northern U.S.

[paulythegun]

What happened to all the glorious snow maps that were being posted the last couple days? Gone poof? Does that mean its over? No silly snow maps, so no chance of a storm? Fucking dead in here. Looking at you [mention=16767]Weather Will[/mention]
The answer ofc is no. The h5 pattern largely looks the same, so potential remains. Devil is in the details- meaning, as usual, wave timing, interplay, and spacing. Sure its not a high probability given climo, but its silly to geek out over day 8-10 day snow maps then disappear when they go poof. Have some sticktoitiveness ffs.

In this region, we have a 10 to 1 ratio.

10" of snowmap snow = 1" of real snow

[MountainGeek]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

What happened to all the glorious snow maps that were being posted the last couple days? Gone poof? Does that mean its over? No silly snow maps, so no chance of a storm? Fucking dead in here. Looking at you @Weather Will

The answer ofc is no. The h5 pattern largely looks the same, so potential remains. Devil is in the details- meaning, as usual, wave timing, interplay, and spacing. Sure its not a high probability given climo, but its silly to geek out over day 8-10 day snow maps then disappear when they go poof. Have some sticktoitiveness ffs.

You must be new here - welcome to the forum! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

As always, when a super warm day is initialized, models lose snow threats. They don't estimate this stuff right when it is ahead of time. 

[CAPE]

Someone should start a thread for late Thursday into Friday. Euro and GFS hinting at a period of snow for some of the region.

[stormtracker]

. 

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Someone should start a thread for late Thursday into Friday. Euro and GFS hinting at a period of snow for some of the region.

Interesting.  I’m shocked at the axis of heavier stuff tho.  Absolutely shocked. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

. 

Interesting.  I’m shocked at the axis of heavier stuff tho.  Absolutely shocked. 

I'm going to absolutely LOSE IT if RIC gets more snow while we suck ass

[stormtracker]

36 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm going to absolutely LOSE IT if RIC gets more snow while we suck ass

Prepare yourself.   Because if it does indeed snow, Cape will reporting fatties with 3" on the ground and we're partly sunny.  

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Prepare yourself.   Because if it does indeed snow, Cape will reporting fatties with 3" on the ground and we're partly sunny.  

We won't even be partly sunny, though! We'll 42 and drizzle while CAPE enjoys his 34 and heavy snow

[high risk]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

As always, when a super warm day is initialized, models lose snow threats. They don't estimate this stuff right when it is ahead of time. 

This makes no sense at all. 

[stormtracker]

18 minutes ago, high risk said:

This makes no sense at all. 

When I read his post, I legit lol'd.  

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Someone should start a thread for late Thursday into Friday. Euro and GFS hinting at a period of snow for some of the region.

My favorite "heavy snow" sounding I've seen yet

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

My favorite "heavy snow" sounding I've seen yet

You can see that there will be impeccable dendrite growth that will fall onto incredibly cold ground.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

You can see that there will be impeccable dendrite growth that will fall onto incredibly cold ground.

Definitely no mid level dry air to eat away at the snow too! Just perfect conditions

[wasnow215]

Not going to snow Thursday into Friday

[wxmeddler]

Post cold front snow on sharp, fast-moving troughs don't usually work out as far as accumulation. Ends up being too dry aloft and warm at the surface. You can get brief snow showers though.

[winter_warlock]

 Ok  real stupid question for u all... Check out this system in the gulf... Would that be a tropical system in March?? 

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Definitely no mid level dry air to eat away at the snow too! Just perfect conditions

Evaporative cooling!

But seriously..

Its dead Jim

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Evaporative cooling!

But seriously..

Its dead Jim

Yeah...on to next week...which is probably dead too.   I'm going to hang on until at least the 21st.   I'm in it till the end.

[CAPE]

Sometimes(probably often) winter ends abruptly here. This may be what we are facing. If so, it was a good run. My heating bill concurs. On to El Nino! Lets hope it is Modoki with NA blocking.

[stormtracker]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sometimes(probably often) winter ends abruptly here. This may be what we are facing. If so, it was a good run. My heating bill concurs. On to El Nino! Lets hope it is Modoki with NA blocking.

For you, it definitely was an A winter.   For us in the urban jungle, not so much

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For you, it definitely was an A winter.   For us in the urban jungle, not so much

C minus minus here

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

C minus minus here

Agreed

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For you, it definitely was an A winter.   For us in the urban jungle, not so much

Ninos (after 2009-10) have sucked here. Better inland. Weirdly I like Ninas better, as they are colder and eastern areas do pretty well with snow. The beaches do even better than my yard wrt avg. Wild shit. Something is going on. 22" this winter here. Best since 2015.

[Fozz]

For a winter that had BN temps straight from November to February, it was clearly very disappointing in this region. Philly got 30” while BWI got 17 and DCA got 10”.

Im not going to sugarcoat just to be positive or “realistic”, it definitely should’ve had at least one solid snowstorm (not just some sleety Feb 07 rehash) between the bay and the far west highlands.

By the way, today felt great. In midwinter I’d hate this warmth but mid March I’ll take it.

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For you, it definitely was an A winter.   For us in the urban jungle, not so much

I will give it an A- or B+, only because after the snow/ice glacier, it went bone dry for 3 weeks while we had snow/ice cover the whole time. No refresher despite historic cold.. Makes it Kinda tough to grade tbh.

[paulythegun]

ITS ALIVE

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

ITS ALIVE

GFS is fucking nuts lol. There was 'some' support earlier, but not now. If you read the local NWS AFDs, not even a mention of snow.

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS is fucking nuts lol. There was 'some' support earlier, but not now. If you read the local NWS AFDs, not even a mention of snow.

Yup, that's what I noticed.   LWX AFD has not one mention of it.

[Heisy]

ITS ALIVE

The 18z euro jumped on board too fwiw