Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Itstrainingtime]

38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This is fair, and as you've said, it's all subjective.  I would go a bit higher though.  I believe you've talked before about grading on the "how often does it look and feel like winter" scale, which I completely agree with, and for me this winter just looked and felt a lot like what winter is supposed to be.  Even going back to some of the cold around the Thanksgiving time period and then the relentless cold through the first half of December and again from mid-January through mid-February.  The staying power of the snowpack during that stretch was something to behold, plus a number of days where snow was at least in the air.  While I agree my 22.3" of snow was nothing overly impressive, it just felt like more, and given expectations and some recent winters, I was pleased.  Now, is it fair to grade on that type of curve?  Probably not but everything is relative.  You are right that March has been mostly a dud but there have still been some very potent cold fronts that have brought about some cool events and it hasn't lacked for feeling like March, despite the positive temp anomaly (some of that may have to do with those aforementioned midnight highs distorting our daily summaries ha).  In any case, I thought it was a rock-solid winter pretty much from start to finish -- one I would sign up for again next year if I could right now -- and for that reason I'm going with a B+.  Great discussion. 

Thank you for sharing! I can't and won't argue any of that. And as I mentioned I think twice in my post, recency bias is something that I can struggle with. Sounds like our perception/opinion for the "true" winter months of December through February are quite similar, it seems like March is the month we have differing viewpoints of. As you mentioned, it can and hopefully will be a great discussion. 

[canderson]

It’s an a- for me simply because I see the river every day and it was frozen for 2.5 months.  I’m a simple man lol 

I didn’t know it was supposed to be windy today. North winds at 35 mph. 

[Voyager]

WTF.... 

It's only 38 in my Tamaqua backyard. Do we HAVE to get THIS cold the day after a 70+ reading?

I'd be ok with 48-52, but really...

[Yardstickgozinya]

Hope cherry picked from the nws forecast discussion . 

 

As we head into next week, all model signals point to aresurgence of Spring warmth to close out the month and kick off April. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will shift from the western US to the east coast and bring a prolonged stretch of southwesterly flow. This will support temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the middle of next week. As the western US ridge is replaced by a deep trough, severe weather chances will increase across the Plains. This will lead to a resurgence of moisture and a fairly active/rainy/stormy pattern in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Easter weekend. Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with haste over the next few weeks.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Hope cherry picked from the nws forecast discussion . 

 

As we head into next week, all model signals point to aresurgence of Spring warmth to close out the month and kick off April. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will shift from the western US to the east coast and bring a prolonged stretch of southwesterly flow. This will support temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the middle of next week. As the western US ridge is replaced by a deep trough, severe weather chances will increase across the Plains. This will lead to a resurgence of moisture and a fairly active/rainy/stormy pattern in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Easter weekend. Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with haste over the next few weeks.

 

MU Weather adds this: (an actual preview of summer as we transition from March to April)

 A well-defined warm front will move through the Commonwealth from southwest-to-northeast Monday night and be accompanied by a few showers. Behind it, temperatures will likely be "off to the races" on Tuesday and Wednesday and soar back into the upper 70s to perhaps mid 80s. Record high temperatures on the last day of March and first day of April are generally in the low-to-mid 80s, so they may be challenged during the middle of next week with enough sunshine. Overnight lows will also be ridiculously high for this time of the year (50s/60s) and more typical of June. Temperature departures on Tuesday/Wednesday will be 20-25°F above normal.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I finally got myself some rain gauges. I did quite well for this. My wor buckets,  debris cans , rain gages and nws estimated  storm total all align.  Well over 1" here for me.

 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Although, none of them we're detected, there was several strokes of lightning very close to my home over the course of a couple minutes last night.  I believe that little area of deeper convection may have been the difference maker. 

[Voyager]

46 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with haste over the next few weeks.

 

But then there's next Fridays forecast. Back down into the 40's...

Thursday Night

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

But then there's next Fridays forecast. Back down into the 40's...

Thursday Night

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

It’s March. It’s always a see saw. 

[Superstorm]

Flurries and grapple


.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I can smell and feel some  cooled crispy stuff making it down to the ground as I wrap up work.  It smells like it's gonna get extrs chilly tonight. 

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS says there might be a potential reason to wait to administer final Winter grades…lol!

Maybe we get one more chance to track.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[canderson]

Whatever happened to that radar in Lancaster county? 

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z GFS says there might be a potential reason to wait to administer final Winter grades…lol!

Maybe we get one more chance to track.

I haven't given my grade yet. We are now at the point where that'll have negative agricultural impacts, but I'll enjoy it , if and while it's happening. 

[mahantango#1]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

Whatever happened to that radar in Lancaster county? 

My son checked into this last year, I think my son said for the most part it's for the university. But if you have $$$ you can have access to it.

[mahantango#1]

25 this morning.

[pawatch]

20 degrees this morning but sunny at least.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Canadian has a Wintry mix early Next Saturday am for CTP. Lots of sleet this run for many of us.

Who knows, maybe this season has one more Wintry period to track?

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 28 with .01” of rain. Cold one for the neighborhood egg hunt today. 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

My son checked into this last year, I think my son said for the most part it's for the university. But if you have $$$ you can have access to it.

I didn’t know radars could track heat waves. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 hours ago, canderson said:

Whatever happened to that radar in Lancaster county? 

1.) If you're referring to the WGAL radar, it went offline due to a variety of issues.

2.) If you're referring to the Climavision radar at Millersville University, it's not available to the general public. Millersville University and the National Weather Service have access to it. Press release: https://climavision.com/news/new-radar-at-millersville-university-to-help-bridge-data-gap-in-central-pennsylvania/

[MAG5035]

On 3/27/2026 at 8:34 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

I guess I could have made this post weeks ago, but with respect to @Blizzard of 93I decided to wait despite having strong feelings that winter was essentially over at the beginning of March. 

I guess there are 2 distinct ways in which one could grade this winter:

• "Grading on a curve" - grading the winter based on the pattern heading into it and on a lot of met's projections for the season
• Grading it "straight up" - based solely on what happened regardless of expectations

No one opinion is wrong or right. We're grading on our own observations, perceptions, expectations, etc. While there certainly is objective (data) information available, it's still a subjective call for each poster. That said, here's my thoughts - 

I'm giving winter 2025-26 a final grade of B-. I considered anything from a C+ up to a B and landed in the middle. Main factors that I used to arrive at my final grade:

• Snowfall: snowfall was slightly below normal at 22.4". It's hard for me to grade snowfall higher than a C, which is average, when my total was below normal. Still, we had weeks of deep, solid snow cover and that created a very memorable stretch of true winter weather. Final snowfall grade is a C+
• Temps: temps were below normal, often well below normal during the heart of winter. And those temps helped maintain our snow cover. Unfortunately, the pattern flipped on a dime in late February and March has seen some ridiculously warm weather. Since it's a part of our winter season, I'm grading the temp at a B+. 
• March: March has been awful. And I need to be careful of recency bias, but while it's been a wild month with Tornado Watches, Severe Thunderstorm warnings a plenty, sharp cold fronts that resulted in snow flying just a couple of hours after being in the 60s...there has been very little in terms of snowfall and the month has felt more springlike than anything else. There hasn't really been any legit threat of snowfall now for weeks on end. The dud that this winter has ended on brings down the overall grade somewhat. 
• Personal perception: See above regarding recency bias, I will say that coming back from Florida on January 28th at midday with temps around 10 degrees, deep snow cover, snow blowing all around despite the storm having occurred 3 days prior and then enjoying the snow for the next few weeks...we had an amazing stretch of winter. One that we very seldom have any more. It was a lot of fun in here in December and January and right into early February. 

Factoring all of that, I'm at a B-. Curious what others have to say...

I know I pretty much said near the beginning of the month I was at a C- if nothing else happened and no better than a C+ unless it was a 2018 type ending. Since the 3/15 event delivered 2.5” and thundersnow plus an extra half inch or so of squalls the following day I’ll take the minus away and make it a plain C grade. 

I just can’t grade it any better than that here despite it being consistently cold. The 3” this month puts me at 31.7” which is still roughly like 10-15” off of getting into what would be considered average at my location. The rest of this month has been decidedly more Morch than March with multiple 70+ days and an 84ºF on 3/22. I went nearly a month between measurable snows from the main headliner 1/25 storm to the 2/22 event that was a big bust here and a main headliner for other folks. Didn’t do well with northern branch stuff (Clipper type systems) this winter either as a lot of them tracked the low north of PA, continuing that trend. Completely different story on the non downslope side of the mountains. Pittsburgh is at about 52” for the season, nearly 10” above average for them. 

And to make this post sound less like a 1 star review I will say this winter did do well in timing its best deep winter period right with mid-late Jan climo and being overall cold from December thru most of Feb. 

[Itstrainingtime]

58 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I know I pretty much said near the beginning of the month I was at a C- if nothing else happened and no better than a C+ unless it was a 2018 type ending. Since the 3/15 event delivered 2.5” and thundersnow plus an extra half inch or so of squalls the following day I’ll take the minus away and make it a plain C grade. 

I just can’t grade it any better than that here despite it being consistently cold. The 3” this month puts me at 31.7” which is still roughly like 10-15” off of getting into what would be considered average at my location. The rest of this month has been decidedly more Morch than March with multiple 70+ days and an 84ºF on 3/22. I went nearly a month between measurable snows from the main headliner 1/25 storm to the 2/22 event that was a big bust here and a main headliner for other folks. Didn’t do well with northern branch stuff (Clipper type systems) this winter either as a lot of them tracked the low north of PA, continuing that trend. Completely different story on the non downslope side of the mountains. Pittsburgh is at about 52” for the season, nearly 10” above average for them. 

And to make this post sound less like a 1 star review I will say this winter did do well in timing its best deep winter period right with mid-late Jan climo and being overall cold from December thru most of Feb. 

Certainly feel the same about March. Way too much very warm weather way too soon.

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Certainly feel the same about March. Way too much very warm weather way too soon.

Going to be a long, humid, hot summer.