Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Nws take on Sunday's severe weather threat. Unfortunately, hail along with a damaging wind threat seems to be the main threat Sunday,  for those of us near and in the corridor of slight risk according to the nws

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
502 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense Fog Advisory for a portion of east-central PA until 8AM
Severe thunderstorm risk level increased from 1 to 2 for Sunday
over south central PA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low visibility in dense fog could make driving hazardous
early this morning across portions of east-central PA

2) First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain and severe
thunderstorm risk Sunday afternoon into Sunday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Low visibility in dense fog could make driving
hazardous early this morning across portions of east-central PA

Temporary clearing in the wake of yesterdays rainfall has
resulted in patchy to locally dense fog formation across
portions of east central PA. Visibility trends have been
improving on the margin upon the arrival of lower cloud deck
continuing to expand southeastward per IR satellite imagery.
Coordinated with PHI on issuance of DFA until 8AM with several
ASOS and RWIS sites reporting visby below 1000ft or <1/4 mile.

KEY MESSAGE 2: First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain and
severe thunderstorm risk Sunday afternoon into Sunday night

A nice start to Spring this weekend with fcst highs ramping 15
to 30F above the historical average by Sunday. This surge of
warmth will be brief and followed by a noticeable cooldown on
Monday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower than Sunday.

SPC expanded the level 2/slight risk outlook from the Upper
Ohio Valley into south central PA (south of I-80) for Sunday
afternoon and evening. CAPE and 0-6km shear profiles appear
rather favorable for organized severe storms ahead of a
southeastward advancing cold front. Large hail probs are
relatively high with 700-500mb lapse rates 7-7.5 C/km and
essentially match the damaging wind probs.

 

[mahantango#1]

.31 rain last evening. Monthly total for March so far 4.94

[Yardstickgozinya]

I had to edit my above post. For some reason, I woke up thinking this was Sunday. lol

[pawatch]

8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Finished Friday with .36" of rain 

.24” of an inch here yesterday. High of 53 degrees 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 46 with .37” of rain. Off to Strasburg with the kids. Have a great one!

[ChescoWx]

Updated annual average temperatures for suburban Chester County PA vs the PHL Airport....UHI FTW! In fact in analyzing the warming slope - PHL is now warming at a 6x faster rate than the Philly burbs!

[Jns2183]

Today back in 1958 the area was in the middle of the 2nd greatest snowstorm in Pennsylvania history. Below are the all-time 3 day snowstorms across our state. The top 2 storms both were in our local area with the Blizzard of February 1899 at Coatesville with 52.4" and the 50.0" just off the PA Turnpike at Morgantown leading the way. Of note that same storm in 1958 also featured the 49" that was recorded just off the PA Turnpike at Devault. I have also included the hand written NWS COOP March 1958 observations for both Morgantown and Devault.

I thought you might enjoy these graphs

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Yardstickgozinya]

Basically expanded to include most of the state. From what I gather, severe storms will be quite isolated , but carry the risk of large hail up to the size of golf balls.  Spc added that they may need to add a elevated tornado risk to the outlook. Main bust threat is lack of moisture  return. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage for the late afternoon and evening, but are expected to be more elevated at that point.  

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Hail sig hatching level 1

Tornado probability 2%

[Voyager]

I don't care if this entire forum puts me on ignore, but I'm sick of this.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 44.

This blasted pattern has been persistent since Thanksgiving. You'd think that western heat would eventually move east, but NO....

It's rucking fidiculous. My wife keeps telling me to move out to AZ and be happy again, but I can see her dinging for alimony, taking half my paycheck, and then I'd be worse off instead of better 

I have such a wonderful future........ not.

[mahantango#1]

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't care if this entire forum puts me on ignore, but I'm sick of this.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 44.

This blasted pattern has been persistent since Thanksgiving. You'd think that western heat would eventually move east, but NO....

It's rucking fidiculous. My wife keeps telling me to move out to AZ and be happy again, but I can see her dinging for alimony, taking half my paycheck, and then I'd be worse off instead of better 

I have such a wonderful future........ not.

Eventually the cold mongers will succumb to the heat when it finally moves east...when ever that will be. Here's to highs in the mid 90's and mid 70 dewpoints. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

I don't care if this entire forum puts me on ignore, but I'm sick of this.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 44.

This blasted pattern has been persistent since Thanksgiving. You'd think that western heat would eventually move east, but NO....

It's rucking fidiculous. My wife keeps telling me to move out to AZ and be happy again, but I can see her dinging for alimony, taking half my paycheck, and then I'd be worse off instead of better 

I have such a wonderful future........ not.

I really hope you can find some type of balance, and peace through it..  Not saying any of this  should or or will be your fate, because  you're already  married . I often ponder, which one is worse. You could sit around over indulging in sadness with the wheels constantly turning,  knowing that your most likely  never going know what it's like to be married and going to die alone., and the only woman that truly ever loved you was your mother. 

Then, I ponder, what if you did get married and god forbid it ended up being your son's insane mother. I haven't got into the lonely years in life yet, but I have a feeling they're really going to suck.  Hopefully this helps provide another perspective without making things any worse. 

   As far as the the weather getting you down ,i'm fairly confident my advice would not be met with high regard.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Seeing that, I was handing out bro flowers to dudes I never met yesterday may constitute a reevaluation of my lonely years statement. I'm also realizing I just wasted a lot of time and space just to say you're d***** if you do, and you're d***** if you don't.

[Voyager]

8 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Seeing that, I was handing out bro flowers to dudes I never met yesterday may constitute a reevaluation of my lonely years statement. I'm also realizing I just wasted a lot of time and space just to say you're d***** if you do, and you're d***** if you don't.

The last part of this post is where the truth lies.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Nws forcast discussion only concerning today's thunderstorms. Full discussion.is in the link at the bottom.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
348 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-230800-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
348 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

HAS CHANGED...
* Little change in Sunday`s severe thunderstorm potential,
  built out more details pertaining to timing and threats.
* Added mentions of icing potential Monday morning with
  dropping temperatures and freezing rain/drizzle potential
  across the Poconos.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening
across much of central Pennsylvania, highest chances south of
the I-80 corridor.

2) Some icing potential Sunday night into Monday morning across
portions of NE PA, slick spots possible for the Monday morning
commute.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening across much of central Pennsylvania, highest chances
south of the I-80 corridor.

Severe threat will be in play across much of central PA this
afternoon and evening, with surface dewpoints across western
Indiana surging towards the region. Recent HREF model guidance
continues to indicate favorable probabilities (generally between
50-70%) for surface dewpoints reaching into the mid-to-upper 50s
this afternoon for regions south of I-80. Bulk wind shear across
the entire area by this time will also markedly increase which
would support thunderstorm development to become organized
enough to sustain themselves this afternoon/evening.

There does remain some uncertainty with respect to CAPE with
some recent hi-res model guidance indicating some breaks in the
clouds across south-central Pennsylvania during the afternoon
hours. If these solutions begin to pan out, this will allow for
an uptick in instability, which would increase the severe
threat. For reference, model solutions on the lower end of CAPE
values top out between 500-600 J/kg while higher-end solutions
of CAPE values exceed 1000 J/kg and push closer to the 1500 J/kg
mark which would be much more sufficient for severe weather
potential this afternoon. The spread is most pronounced across
western portions of the forecast area, which is where model
guidance is the most uncertain with respect to cloud cover later
today.

All of that being said, SPC has continued with the slight risk
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening for areas south
of the I-80 corridor. Damaging wind threat continues to
highlight areas mainly south of I-80 where there is there
remains some higher potential for instability with ample shear
in place. Fact cell movement will also give ample convective and
kinematic energy to support the damaging wind threat this
afternoon and into the evening. The hail threat across the
southern half of Pennsylvania bears watching, with steep (7-7.5
C/km) 700-500mb lapse rates continuing to be signaled in recent
hi-res model guidance. Large hail will be possible, as SPC
outlines with their CIG1 hatching across the southern half of
Pennsylvania. These hazards are expected to be focused in the
2PM to 9PM timeframe today, gradually spreading north-to-south
throughout the afternoon and evening hours.

In terms of the tornado threat across the region, there remains
a non-zero threat across portions south of I-80. This threat is
not as robust as the wind/hail threat. One of the main
negatives with respect to the tornado threat read out in looking
at model guidance for LCLs this afternoon. LCLs look to be
relatively high with recent RAP model guidance indicating LCLs
between 2000-3000m across the southern half of the region. The
higher cloud bases will make it slightly harder (not impossible)
to form, especially with low-level dry air in place.

Lastly, flooding concerns given some locations have pushed
slightly above one inch storm total rainfall amounts with more
localized pockets of heavy rainfall. Highest rainfall signals
appear across the southern tier, where recent Drought Monitor
continues with D1-D2 drought. FFGs in this area would likely
need to be exceeded in the one-hour timeframe, where we`re
looking at slightly below one inch to exceed guidance. Given
this, not foreseeing a lot of hydrological issues with this
system especially given quick movement of storms.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Yardstickgozinya]

I would get your cameras ready today, fellas,some of cells are probably going to be quite photogenic compare to what we're used in our area. Especially early in their evolution. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a rare lp supercell or two in cpa today.  Spc update last night mentiond  two rounds of storms. Round one will be a cellular and probably will remain so for quite some time today with a  line of storms possible  tonight. Both rounds have potential for large hail. If we can get enough breaks in the sun today, destabilization could generously increase our tornado risk . We also have a week cap in place to help get that gun loaded. All in all today really seems the have a wide spectrum of potential  . My guess is, there's going to be one or two epically, nasty cells track through central pennsylvania this afternoon with several other potentially strong to severe storms into the early night time hours. Watch your left cell splits for the big hail today and stay safe. Today, definitely could be our biggest severe day yet in our general area. 

[mahantango#1]

Sun has been out now for a half hour. We'll see if it helps destabilize the atmosphere.

[Voyager]

47 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Sun has been out now for a half hour. We'll see if it helps destabilize the atmosphere.

I just came along to mention the same exact thing. Seems to me that this one may produce better than Monday did.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Getting 3 severe weather threats in less than 2 weeks in the middle of March is kinda wild not gonna lie. I'm glad it's raining a lot more now not just because of the drought but because I really enjoy heavy rains. All the drought was really depressing lol

[Yardstickgozinya]

A good chunk of Pa. has been Upgrade to enhanced, at first glance it doesn't appear that the tornado threat has increased,  but both hail and wind threats ,have increased significantly . Both are at 30% probabilities ,level 1 hatching  for all of cpa west of the Susquehanna river. Apparently, a level one 1 hatching indicates there could be hail over 2" in diameter and winds in excess of 74mph if Ai is feeding me information correctly. 

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[MAG5035]

First 80+ of the year here, all the way up to 82ºF currently on a stiff SW breeze. 

I already like the severe potential today more than the setup last Monday. We don’t have anywhere near the shear/helicity parameters so tornado threat will be more minimalized. Wind and hail will be the primary threats with this.  

Regarding CTP disco’s previous concerns about cloud cover, SW and SC PA I-80 and south are fully in the sun and mixed out with the warm, gusty SW winds. So I think we’re going to build some half decent CAPE as the afternoon wears on and also advect in somewhat more moist air. Low and mid-level lapses are very high as well, as noted on the SPC disco. This is the kind of setup that can yield a surprisingly strong line of storms with strong downbursts. 

Low Level Lapse Rate:

Mid-Level Lapse Rate:

[Yardstickgozinya]

  I was just looking at some of the meso  scale parameters, myself, I was quite surprised to find thermo dynamic fields were still quite meager to non existent, at this hour, however some instability and a few other meso scale enhancements appear to be advecting into our area from the west as I write this . Kinematic fields are definitely starting to show some enhanced parameters. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Where has @Itstrainingtimebeen . It's been well over twenty four hours since he's made a post. 

[canderson]

Train gets back to Harrisburg at 8:45 or so. Should be just in time for some good lighting and wind. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Western and West central Pa. At this time seems to be the area of best increasing indices and overlap..  We still have  work to do here in immediate cpa  There's still plenty of time and as mentioned, the enhanced parameters are advecting east.   At this moment in time I would have to say that west central and western pa, seem to be the place of best interest ,but that can certainly change as the day progresses. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

YO@!  @Jns2183 

G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming Observed 22 Mar

6 hours ago — G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming was observed during the 0900-1200 UTC synoptic period on 22 Mar as what is likely high speed stream onset

[Yardstickgozinya]

Not sure how well this will time up, but anybody that's done, their research knows that this could have significant impact on the lightning if proton flux time's up properly. I don't understand the science enough to know the timing. But we coukd end up with an incredible lightning event tonight If things do time up properly.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

58 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Where has @Itstrainingtimebeen . It's been well over twenty four hours since he's made a post. 

I'm here! Just got home from lunch out with my wife. Temp here is 81! All eyes on the radar...

[Yardstickgozinya]

Haha. She's an angry b**** today no down about that.

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm here! Just got home from lunch out with my wife. Temp here is 81! All eyes on the radar...

Great.  I was getting a little paranoid that I unintentionally said something stupid, in one of my messages. I'm gonna try to catch a quick nap.Hopefully don't miss anything good. Watch for the early cells that split today. I'd imagine one or two of those left splitters are gonna be the  big hail dispensers. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Reminder for everyone to have their cameras  ready to go, especially in west central pennsylvania. When these storms go up and they're young, they're going to look incredible. I think early on the discrete cells, will be quite low precipitators maybe even true lp at the getgo.