Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Yardstickgozinya]

Nws take on today's severe weather threat. Unfortunately, hail along with a damaging wind threat seems to be the main threat today,  for those of us near and in the corridor of slight risk according to the nws

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
502 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dense Fog Advisory for a portion of east-central PA until 8AM
Severe thunderstorm risk level increased from 1 to 2 for Sunday
over south central PA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low visibility in dense fog could make driving hazardous
early this morning across portions of east-central PA

2) First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain and severe
thunderstorm risk Sunday afternoon into Sunday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Low visibility in dense fog could make driving
hazardous early this morning across portions of east-central PA

Temporary clearing in the wake of yesterdays rainfall has
resulted in patchy to locally dense fog formation across
portions of east central PA. Visibility trends have been
improving on the margin upon the arrival of lower cloud deck
continuing to expand southeastward per IR satellite imagery.
Coordinated with PHI on issuance of DFA until 8AM with several
ASOS and RWIS sites reporting visby below 1000ft or <1/4 mile.

KEY MESSAGE 2: First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain and
severe thunderstorm risk Sunday afternoon into Sunday night

A nice start to Spring this weekend with fcst highs ramping 15
to 30F above the historical average by Sunday. This surge of
warmth will be brief and followed by a noticeable cooldown on
Monday with max temps 20-30 degrees lower than Sunday.

SPC expanded the level 2/slight risk outlook from the Upper
Ohio Valley into south central PA (south of I-80) for Sunday
afternoon and evening. CAPE and 0-6km shear profiles appear
rather favorable for organized severe storms ahead of a
southeastward advancing cold front. Large hail probs are
relatively high with 700-500mb lapse rates 7-7.5 C/km and
essentially match the damaging wind probs.

 

[mahantango#1]

.31 rain last evening. Monthly total for March so far 4.94