Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[Itstrainingtime]

57 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I think you had an upload error

He uploaded an image from the Superstorm of 93. That's why he said he could get on board with.

[MAG5035]

I think you had an upload error

Yea sorry about that haha, I was exploring how far back the archived radar data went, that’s from 3/13/93.


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[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

When I ponied up and upgraded my RadarScope to the Pro subscription this winter I forgot one of the features was archived radar data. So this is a really good example to try it out and review something. Basically, I’m not doubting the chances that this storm might have spun something weak up somewhere along the way but I think this posted screengrab of the CC labeled as a debris ball to prove a tornado on the ground is a bit of a stretch.

So here’s the 606pm image that was shared, crosshairs placed on the “debris ball” 

One thing about debris ball signatures is the area of low CC values are usually co-located to an area of high DBZ reflectivity values, which this CC signature is not. They’re also typically associated with established, strong tornadoes (>EF2), which I’m not really seeing the support for on velocity data, or obs/local storm reports. Even though this passed thru a relatively sparse area, it did still cross US 22/322 during this period. There weren’t very many reports on this storm at all looking over the LSR’s. 

This signature likely had more to do with the hail core that this cell did have with it, which will reduce the CC values and can also cause a corridor of reduced values in the downstream direction of the radar beam when there’s a pretty decent hail core.. which can be seen on the images. 

Thanks for your analysis on this. I did see someone commented on Facebook (I don't know what site or thread it was on) this person said they and their spouse  had damage on their property and it was the loudest thunder they ever heard. They also said they went down into their basement till the storm passed. So maybe there was just a brief touchdown of a tornado. Also I wish there were more radar sites like in the Harrisburg area for better coverage during severe weather events.

[Yardstickgozinya]

38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

He uploaded an image from the Superstorm of 93. That's why he said he could get on board with.

LOL it's even circled in the corner. I was looking for a supercell and my eye just immediately said, what the hell is that and just never connected the history of the date. But anywho the wind has died down here and the spring peepers are actually still chirping tonight, so it's not bad out here at all, while i'm wrapping up work in Mechanicsburg.

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Found this on facebook I didn't know NWS was doing a storm survey.

Nepa Storm Chasers 

eSnosprdot8ch492c2au0hctgtfa7h30f8lhi1ct786i7mh7um2c3693i7t3 ·

 

Dauphin County Tornado Update 

Some followup on the tornado warned storm in Dauphin County on Wednesday. I have actually drive on the exact road in the exact rural area it struck and there's a solid chance it missed every home as it's extremely rural in Shermans Dale and Blain, PA.

The storm would have only been on the ground for a short time maybe 10-15 mins, 3-8 miles max before lifting. This may have hit a house or just tore up some woods but there was clearly evidence to suggest it was causing damage.

I clipped a photo of the debris ball with the overlay of the general area it would have been. It's all thick woods and very rural homes. I personally stayed in a cabin about 2-4 miles from the exact spot this storm happened at. I'm very curious to see what the NWS survey team determines when they conclude their investigation.

Anyway, thought this may be interesting to everyone. I'll update when I found out.

- Espresso 

So while i'm already looking stupid, it's probably a good time to add my stupid analysis.  I don't have the means to go back and look at this nor did I ever see it in such high detail but it looks to me like the circulation dog leged and just embedded itself into the cell giving the illusion of a the debris ball. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

And just to be clear, anybody could make that mistake with their eyes . That's why surveys are so necessary even with radar confirmation.

[WmsptWx]

It's like a bomb went off with all the downed trees. This may be the worst wind I have ever experienced.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Yeah, just kinda looks to me like it  closed off Its feed of cooler dry air to the meso and you're just seeing what's left of it getting pinch to the center, and that's also probably what killed any chance of it forming a tornado. I could be completely wrong because I don't have access to watch it again and can't see the whole storm in the images. I included a picture of a cell below that is showing  circulation beginning to dog  leg. You can see the mesocyclone, catching up with the rear flank of the precipitation core and eventually, if they merge and you catch it at the right moment, that close off point can certainly can be confused for a debris ball. 

I want to reiterate that this is not our super sell from the other day. This is just one I chose for the dog leg. 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

26 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

It's like a bomb went off with all the downed trees. This may be the worst wind I have ever experienced.

You were under some of that convection, or you're just getting wind/rain

[Yardstickgozinya]

45 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Yeah, just kinda looks to me like it  closed off Its feed of cooler dry air to the meso and you're just seeing what's left of it getting pinch to the center, and that's also probably what killed any chance of it forming a tornado. I could be completely wrong because I don't have access to watch it again and can't see the whole storm in the images. I included a picture of a cell below that is showing  circulation beginning to dog  leg. You can see the mesocyclone, catching up with the rear flank of the precipitation core and eventually, if they merge and you catch it at the right moment, that close off point can certainly can be confused for a debris ball. 

I want to reiterate that this is not our super sell from the other day. This is just one I chose for the dog leg. 

 

Yes, I may have a wrong picture, but  one is coming together. Lol I believe the storm was cycling in the signatures that @mahantango#1 posted and we're seeing the very moment the old inflow, notch closed up. I also believe the storm probably cycled like this several times before it could form a tornado. @MAG5035 feel free to to let me down. 

 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

 Bounded weak echo region is another thing that came to mind, but I would think it would have a lot more lightning. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[mahantango#1]

The NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed south central Pennsylvania in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for Monday March 16th.

Pennsylvania averages only 5 to 6 Enhanced Risk days per year.

Damaging straight line wind gusts are the primary threat, but a few tornadoes are possible as well.

[canderson]

49 has been my highest gust. 

I am trying to think back to the last time ingredients were this good and will be in place for a derecho-like line here. I can’t think of any.   
 

Unless S PA gets heavy cloud cover Monday, a significant line is coming through and will destructive in a lot of places. And ahead of that line will be an equally strong squall. 

[Voyager]

44 minutes ago, canderson said:

49 has been my highest gust. 

I am trying to think back to the last time ingredients were this good and will be in place for a derecho-like line here. I can’t think of any.   
 

Unless S PA gets heavy cloud cover Monday, a significant line is coming through and will destructive in a lot of places. And ahead of that line will be an equally strong squall. 

Gotta wonder if that enhanced area gets expanded north and east as we get closer to the event. Many times it does.

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Gotta wonder if that enhanced area gets expanded north and east as we get closer to the event. Many times it does.

It will.