2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

I don't like to criticize the NWS but Charleston dropped the T-storm warning and now has this completely unwarned as it approaches a town which just seems really bad and one of the worst misses I've seen when it comes to tornado signatures. It had a better circulation and more lofted debris ball beforehand too! It even had a separate debris ball 30 minutes ago now! 

I’m not convinced that’s a TDS in this radar snapshot at least tho I’m hardly a pro here.

EDIT: looking at the radar loop I think it *was* one at a point before this screenshot but idk if I t think it’s on the ground here. Might be some debris fallout

[SnowenOutThere]

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not convinced that’s a TDS in this radar snapshot at least tho I’m hardly a pro here.

EDIT: looking at the radar loop I think it *was* one at a point before this screenshot but idk if I t think it’s on the ground here. Might be some debris fallout

My point is this storm deserved a Tornado warning at some point in its lifespan. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Days with cool temps usually don't do much severe wx wise in the area. This is 3x this season where they had risk with 50s and 60s and it amounted to nothing.  

[NorthArlington101]

My point is this storm deserved a Tornado warning at some point in its lifespan. 

Concur with that! All good.

[SnowenOutThere]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Concur with that! All good.

Those same cells (weakening ofc as they move out of the best thermodynamic environment into the wedge) are approaching UVA and Tech (though further SW like Tech got clearing and now has 1000+ SBCAPE) so will be interesting to see if they can at least hold together enough/become elevated and drop good rain and thunder. Charlottesville itself has gotten split the whole past week and needs a good downpour. 

[NorthArlington101]

Those same cells (weakening ofc as they move out of the best thermodynamic environment into the wedge) are approaching UVA and Tech (though further SW like Tech got clearing and now has 1000+ SBCAPE) so will be interesting to see if they can at least hold together enough/become elevated and drop good rain and thunder. Charlottesville itself has gotten split the whole past week and needs a good downpour. 

Rooting for some interesting weather somewhere in this area. Been such a bore lately.

[SnowenOutThere]

From LWX: Honestly a bit surprised tomorrow got such a long writeup but the increasing risk of storms became high enough to rule out a hike in Shenandoah tomorrow. 

Recent guidance has trended a bit slower with the front`s
progression through the area, which could potentially allow for
a bit more destabilization tomorrow afternoon. As a result, the
trend has also been slightly upward with CAPE values. Much of
the destabilization appears to occur as a result of low-level
moisture convergence in the vicinity of the surface front, which
causes dewpoints to rise into the low to mid 60s. That being
said, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with respect
to how much destabilization occurs, and also the areal coverage
of storms that form.

Shear certainly won`t be lacking tomorrow, with most soundings
showing long, straight hodographs, with around 60 knots of
effective bulk shear and over 100 knots of shear in the cloud
bearing layer. So, if storms form, there is a conditional threat
for supercells. The 12z HRRR for example, hinted at this
possibility, with weak UH tracks.

The thermodynamic environment is a bit odd, and casts
uncertainty with respect to what hazards storms could
potentially produce, if they occur at all. Model soundings show
long, straight hodographs, which would normally be supportive of
hail production. However, profiles are nearly saturated and
moist-adiabatic at low-levels, with a considerable amount of the
CAPE below the freezing level, which is unfavorable for hail
production. Winds in the mid-upper levels are very strong, but
aren`t overly impressive just above the surface. And model
soundings show a good amount of dry air in the mid-levels (which
yields DCAPE values around 700 J/kg), but very moist air at
low-levels and poor low-level lapse rates, which would be
unfavorable for transporting higher momentum air down from
aloft. Machine learning guidance is downplaying the potential
for severe thunderstorms, and SPC currently has us outlooked in
general thunder. However, tomorrow is at least worth monitoring
from a severe thunderstorm perspective given the CAPE/shear
combination that could potentially be in place (high end
scenario of around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 60 knots of
effective bulk shear).

[high risk]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

From LWX: Honestly a bit surprised tomorrow got such a long writeup but the increasing risk of storms became high enough to rule out a hike in Shenandoah tomorrow. 

      I think they're bored.        But seriously, the shear is great, but as they noted, there just isn't any instability to work with.    Unless that changes, the general thunder outlook is reasonable.

[SnowenOutThere]

11 hours ago, high risk said:

      I think they're bored.        But seriously, the shear is great, but as they noted, there just isn't any instability to work with.    Unless that changes, the general thunder outlook is reasonable.

Huh, there’s clearing out near 1-81 and even in Reston (I’m back from uva for the summer) there was a peak of filtered sunshine. Seems we may be ahead of schedule.

[high risk]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Huh, there’s clearing out near 1-81 and even in Reston (I’m back from uva for the summer) there was a peak of filtered sunshine. Seems we may be ahead of schedule.

    Unless we're going to suddenly spike into the 80s, a severe threat here just isn't happening.   It doesn't help that storms at peak heating will be isolated, while convection will become more widespread after dark when we start to cool.    I'd be thrilled to just hear thunder.   

[Eskimo Joe]

On 4/29/2026 at 4:30 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not convinced that’s a TDS in this radar snapshot at least tho I’m hardly a pro here.

EDIT: looking at the radar loop I think it *was* one at a point before this screenshot but idk if I t think it’s on the ground here. Might be some debris fallout

It was a TDS. Damage was reported almost immediately, but when you're warning or trying to detect tornadoes in rural areas with a high beam height, you're going to miss things. The same thing happened the other year in Garett County when the TDS pushed above 11,000 ft, the radar out of Pittsburgh finally saw it. Unfortunately, it was too late by then.

[NorthArlington101]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It was a TDS. Damage was reported almost immediately, but when you're warning or trying to detect tornadoes in rural areas with a high beam height, you're going to miss things. The same thing happened the other year in Garett County when the TDS pushed above 11,000 ft, the radar out of Pittsburgh finally saw it. Unfortunately, it was too late by then.

Yeah, I was obviously wrong. Earlier scans made it clearer. Thought there was a shot it was just sidelobe contamination but very clearly was a tornado on the ground from those damage reports.

[high risk]

What a bummer.    We're about to enter what I consider our climatological "legit severe" peak, and looking through the next 2 weeks, I can barely find chances of thunder, much less severe.

And yes, I consider our peak from around May 10 - June 20.    After June 20, we can get some localized wind and maybe a derecho every 5-10 years (and of course a tropical system), but our best threats for organized, higher-end severe in my mind usually falls during that period.

[Kmlwx]

14 hours ago, high risk said:

What a bummer.    We're about to enter what I consider our climatological "legit severe" peak, and looking through the next 2 weeks, I can barely find chances of thunder, much less severe.

And yes, I consider our peak from around May 10 - June 20.    After June 20, we can get some localized wind and maybe a derecho every 5-10 years (and of course a tropical system), but our best threats for organized, higher-end severe in my mind usually falls during that period.

Yeah for sure - I mean am I right in saying that it is mostly attributed to the "doldrums" of summer and just weaker overall systems later in summer? At least spring/very early summer you can still get some dynamic systems with big temperature swings behind fronts and such. 

I will say - sometimes you will (like you said) get an isolated event that has an absolutely destructive microburst in the area - if that happens in a populated area that can be a "signature event" for some people for a given year. 

[Eskimo Joe]

18 hours ago, high risk said:

What a bummer.    We're about to enter what I consider our climatological "legit severe" peak, and looking through the next 2 weeks, I can barely find chances of thunder, much less severe.

And yes, I consider our peak from around May 10 - June 20.    After June 20, we can get some localized wind and maybe a derecho every 5-10 years (and of course a tropical system), but our best threats for organized, higher-end severe in my mind usually falls during that period.

This plus a climo decrease in tropical chances due to El Nino really are a wet blanket for this summer. Do we just go hot and dry all season?

[high risk]

11 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah for sure - I mean am I right in saying that it is mostly attributed to the "doldrums" of summer and just weaker overall systems later in summer? At least spring/very early summer you can still get some dynamic systems with big temperature swings behind fronts and such. 

I will say - sometimes you will (like you said) get an isolated event that has an absolutely destructive microburst in the area - if that happens in a populated area that can be a "signature event" for some people for a given year. 

      Yes to all of that.    We can certainly get meaningful severe here in July, but the retreating jet causes really higher-end supercell threats tend to wane by the end of June, unless we hit on some TC stuff in the fall.    

[high risk]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This plus a climo decrease in tropical chances due to El Nino really are a wet blanket for this summer. Do we just go hot and dry all season?

         CPC has us wet to start the summer, but I'm definitely skeptical.     I'm not sure about persistently hot, though.

[high risk]

       Maybe a low-end severe threat for both Saturday and Sunday, although instability is just so limited.    I'm tossing the overmixed HRRR.

[frd]

Sun is out here, wonder the implications for later.  

[SnowenOutThere]

10 hours ago, high risk said:

       Maybe a low-end severe threat for both Saturday and Sunday, although instability is just so limited.    I'm tossing the overmixed HRRR.

Hazardous weather outlook for some possible tstorms today. Discussion says that it’s meager unless we get some instability. That said, we seem to get at least an hour or so of clear skies for a bit this morning, but dunno if that’ll do anything. Actually, how much heating/clearing time wise is needed to “destabilize” the atmosphere?