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March 2026


snowman19
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Colder air has returned to the region. After a low in the upper 20s tomorrow morning, New York City will see a high near or just below 40°. Thursday will see the temperature return to the middle 40s. Readings will then return to the 50s for Friday through the weekend.

The major weather story this week will be the super March heatwave that is now developing in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. Already, Camarillo, CA reached a March record 96° today.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +1.87 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.492 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.1° (2.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

My dream 

With

Hard to believe this is illustrating a recent storm.  High totals were between 30" and 40".  With the snow, consistently up to the shoulders (consistently), this would mean a five foot depth?

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4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Hard to believe this is illustrating a recent storm.  High totals were between 30" and 40".  With the snow, consistently up to the shoulders (consistently), this would mean a five foot depth?

Some reported depth measurements as of this morning across Michigan Upper Peninsula, Northern MN.

Screenshot 2026-03-17 at 6.47.39 PM.jpg

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20 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

that was a mistake since several Tornado Warnings were issued in the last few hours

I feel that it was for the initial front coming from the south and a new set of watches should have been issued from the front coming from the west. There was quite a bit of time where the initial wave that was in the afternoon was significantly lessened, while the 2nd wave (from the west) was the main one that I thought was the one that had the higher potential in NJ to form tornadoes.

While they did have warnings I am surprised they never reissued new tornado watches after the initial ones.

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20 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Good please keep it there. 80 degrees in March is ridiculous and a little bit unnerving. 

Just goes to show how narrowly focused the cold was this winter into the East. While we had our first winter near 32° around NYC in 11 years, this was the 2nd or 3rd warmest winter overall for the CONUS depending on the dataset.

So once the effects of the record early SSW in November wore off this month, the warmth from out West quickly came east.

The shrinking geographic footprint of the cold is one of the reasons that this was our only winter this cold in the 2020s so far while we had 4 winters this cold back in the 2010s prior to the big warming shift with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

IMG_5958.thumb.jpeg.b88624bbb710f47d8f5bf8f3fb09c48d.jpeg

IMG_5959.thumb.jpeg.51fb58566c2e9b563959f2f5f43ea44a.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

51” on the ground there yesterday. Insane. 

One of the few spots that did well during 2001-2002.

Top 10 Snowfall Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2001-2002 319.8 0
2 1996-1997 272.2 0
3 2000-2001 268.0 0
4 2022-2023 265.1 0
5 2025-2026 262.7 198
6 2008-2009 246.0 0
7 1995-1996 235.9 1
8 1989-1990 234.9 0
9 1981-1982 233.8 1
10 2006-2007 230.5 0
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17 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Definitely agree with you there. I'd even take 80 and sunny. Or 90 and sunny. But none of these wild temperature swings we've had the last week. I don't want it to be in the 90s one day and the 50s the very next day. If I wanted that type of weather, I could move to Nebraska.

Once the snow is done I want the cold to be done too. The low getting down to 23 does nothing for me except hike my heating bill. I guess it keeps the bugs away a little longer. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just goes to show how narrowly focused the cold was this winter into the East. While we had our first winter near 32° around NYC in 11 years, this was the 2nd or 3rd warmest winter overall for the CONUS depending on the dataset.

So once the effects of the record early SSW in November wore off this month, the warmth from out West quickly came east.

The shrinking geographic footprint of the cold is one of the reasons that this was our only winter this cold in the 2020s so far while we had 4 winters this cold back in the 2010s prior to the big warming shift with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

IMG_5958.thumb.jpeg.b88624bbb710f47d8f5bf8f3fb09c48d.jpeg

IMG_5959.thumb.jpeg.51fb58566c2e9b563959f2f5f43ea44a.jpeg

It would appear that the trend we saw since November of the models getting colder as we get closer in time has finally ended this month. Sunday continues to warm on the models. Last week overperformed too

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27 / 7 likely the coldest day of the next 7-10 days and perhaps beyond that or well beyond that with highs in the 30s or just to 40 in the warmest sites.  Warmer Thu back to the 40s and sunny, 50s Friday and Saturday and pending on clouds Sunday could push upper 60s, before the next threat of rain / showers arrives.  Ridge holds out west the next 4-5 days with records warmth there.  Cooler Mon/Tue followed by a warmer Wed/Thu and overall back and forth likely slightly warmer than normal through the 26/27th with the last week similar perhaps warmer.to close.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2011)
NYC: 77 (2011)
LGA: 75 (2011)
JFK: 79 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: 10 (1981)
NYC: 7 (1916)
LGA: 13 (1967)
JFK: 9 (1967)


Historical:

1899: An F4 tornado killed 12 people and injured 30 on a 17 mile track through Calhoun and Cleburne counties in Alabama. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1900: The minimum temperature for the date is 13 °F in Washingon, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records)

1913: High barometer reading of 30.92 inches equals the DC March record. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1914: San Francisco, CA recorded their highest temperature ever in March when the mercury soared to 86°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1925 — The great Tri-State Tornado occurred, the most deadly tornado in U.S. history. The tornado claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro IL and 148 at West Frankfort IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort IL, and picked up sixteen students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes claimed an additional 97 lives that day. (David Ludlum)

1927: An F3 tornado destroyed a home near Tonkawa, OK. The 3 children survived, even though 1 of them was airborne for almost ½ mile. The father, who was outside when the tornado hit, held onto a tree as the house sailed away. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)

1935: Suffocating dust storms occurred frequently in southeast Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and many rural homes were deserted by tenants. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1958: A late-season winter storm brought heavy, wet snow to parts of the northeast from Virginia to New England. In parts of Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania, it was the heaviest snowfall ever recorded at that time. The most snow reported at a major reporting station was 11.7 inches at Central Park in New York City, but parts of Philadelphia, PA, New York, NY, Baltimore, MD and Washington, D.C. saw as much as 20 inches. 800 people were trapped along the Pennsylvania Turnpike near Morganton, WV where the 3-day snowfall total was 50 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971 — High winds accompanied a low pressure system from the Rocky Mountains to the Great Lakes. Winds gusted to 100 mph at Hastings NE, and reached 115 mph at Hays KS. High winds caused two million dollars damage in Kansas. Fire burned 50,000 forest acres in eastern Oklahoma. (17th-19th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 — A storm in the central U.S. produced up to 10 inches of snow in western Nebraska, and up to six inches of rain in eastern sections of the state. The heavy rains pushed the Elkhorn River out of its banks, submerging the streets of Inman under three feet of water. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 — Light rain and snow prevailed east of the Mississippi River. Fair weather prevailed west of the Mississippi. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 — A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain in California, with heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range. Venado CA was drenched with 5.40 inches of rain in 24 hours. A dozen cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Baltimore MD with a reading of 82 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 — Heavy rain caused extensive flooding of rivers and streams in Georgia, with total damage running well into the millions. Flooding also claimed six lives. Nearly seven inches of rain caused 2.5 million dollars damage around Columbus, and up to nine inches of rain was reported over the northern Kinchafoonee Basin in Georgia. (Storm Data)


1998: Total snow accumulations in southwest Kansas ranged up to 8 to 12 inches in Stafford, Comanche, Ford, Gray, Finney, Grant, Morton, Seward, Meade and Clark counties. 20 to 30 mph winds accompanied the snowfall resulting in visibilities under a half mile and significant drifting of the snow. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: Denver, Colorado on the 18th and 19th Colorado's capital city has to dig out from the second-biggest snowstorm in its history. Almost 2.5 feet of wet snow over 36 hours shuts down the city. The month ends as the snowiest March on record for the city.
(Ref. WxDoctor)
Utility poles in Madison, WI reportedly ignited as fog combined with leftover salt from the winter season to create a conductive solution that allowed the poles to catch fire. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: Heavy snow occurred across the Upper Midwest. 24 inches was recorded at Lyle, MN, 23 inches at Alma Center, WI, and 19 inches at Otranto, IA. Rochester, MN was buried under 20.2 inches of snow for its greatest snowstorm on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

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38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It would appear that the trend we saw since November of the models getting colder as we get closer in time has finally ended this month. Sunday continues to warm on the models. Last week overperformed too

Yep back to normal.    March is going to be a solidly AN month for temps.

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13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

flagstaff?

Flagstaff, AZ (Pulliam Airport station, 1991–2020 normals)

Elevation: ~7,003–7,014 ft (official ~7,003 ft at the station).

Monthly averages

(High/Low Temp °F | Rainfall inches |Snowfall 

- Jan: 43.4 / 17.6 | 2.05 | 20.9  
- Feb: 45.7 / 19.6 | 2.17 | 19.3  
- Mar: 52.2 / 23.8 | 1.88 | 15.6  
- Apr: 59.2 / 28.2 | 0.89 | 5.0  
- May: 68.1 / 34.6 | 0.77 | 1.1  
- Jun: 79.1 / 42.5 | 0.30 | 0.0  
- Jul: 82.0 / 51.4 | 2.61 | 0.0  
- Aug: 79.3 / 50.6 | 3.04 | 0.0  
- Sep: 74.1 / 42.5 | 1.84 | 0.0  
- Oct: 63.6 / 31.5 | 1.52 | 1.5  
- Nov: 52.1 / 23.0 | 1.55 | 8.2  
- Dec: 43.0 / 16.9 | 1.90 | 18.5  

**Annual totals**: ~20.5 in rain | ~90.1 in snow.

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