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March 2026


snowman19
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Colder air has returned to the region. After a low in the upper 20s tomorrow morning, New York City will see a high near or just below 40°. Thursday will see the temperature return to the middle 40s. Readings will then return to the 50s for Friday through the weekend.

The major weather story this week will be the super March heatwave that is now developing in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma. Already, Camarillo, CA reached a March record 96° today.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +1.87 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.492 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.1° (2.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

My dream 

With

Hard to believe this is illustrating a recent storm.  High totals were between 30" and 40".  With the snow, consistently up to the shoulders (consistently), this would mean a five foot depth?

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4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Hard to believe this is illustrating a recent storm.  High totals were between 30" and 40".  With the snow, consistently up to the shoulders (consistently), this would mean a five foot depth?

Some reported depth measurements as of this morning across Michigan Upper Peninsula, Northern MN.

Screenshot 2026-03-17 at 6.47.39 PM.jpg

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20 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

that was a mistake since several Tornado Warnings were issued in the last few hours

I feel that it was for the initial front coming from the south and a new set of watches should have been issued from the front coming from the west. There was quite a bit of time where the initial wave that was in the afternoon was significantly lessened, while the 2nd wave (from the west) was the main one that I thought was the one that had the higher potential in NJ to form tornadoes.

While they did have warnings I am surprised they never reissued new tornado watches after the initial ones.

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20 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Good please keep it there. 80 degrees in March is ridiculous and a little bit unnerving. 

Just goes to show how narrowly focused the cold was this winter into the East. While we had our first winter near 32° around NYC in 11 years, this was the 2nd or 3rd warmest winter overall for the CONUS depending on the dataset.

So once the effects of the record early SSW in November wore off this month, the warmth from out West quickly came east.

The shrinking geographic footprint of the cold is one of the reasons that this was our only winter this cold in the 2020s so far while we had 4 winters this cold back in the 2010s prior to the big warming shift with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

IMG_5958.thumb.jpeg.b88624bbb710f47d8f5bf8f3fb09c48d.jpeg

IMG_5959.thumb.jpeg.51fb58566c2e9b563959f2f5f43ea44a.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

51” on the ground there yesterday. Insane. 

One of the few spots that did well during 2001-2002.

Top 10 Snowfall Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2001-2002 319.8 0
2 1996-1997 272.2 0
3 2000-2001 268.0 0
4 2022-2023 265.1 0
5 2025-2026 262.7 198
6 2008-2009 246.0 0
7 1995-1996 235.9 1
8 1989-1990 234.9 0
9 1981-1982 233.8 1
10 2006-2007 230.5 0
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17 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Definitely agree with you there. I'd even take 80 and sunny. Or 90 and sunny. But none of these wild temperature swings we've had the last week. I don't want it to be in the 90s one day and the 50s the very next day. If I wanted that type of weather, I could move to Nebraska.

Once the snow is done I want the cold to be done too. The low getting down to 23 does nothing for me except hike my heating bill. I guess it keeps the bugs away a little longer. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just goes to show how narrowly focused the cold was this winter into the East. While we had our first winter near 32° around NYC in 11 years, this was the 2nd or 3rd warmest winter overall for the CONUS depending on the dataset.

So once the effects of the record early SSW in November wore off this month, the warmth from out West quickly came east.

The shrinking geographic footprint of the cold is one of the reasons that this was our only winter this cold in the 2020s so far while we had 4 winters this cold back in the 2010s prior to the big warming shift with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

IMG_5958.thumb.jpeg.b88624bbb710f47d8f5bf8f3fb09c48d.jpeg

IMG_5959.thumb.jpeg.51fb58566c2e9b563959f2f5f43ea44a.jpeg

It would appear that the trend we saw since November of the models getting colder as we get closer in time has finally ended this month. Sunday continues to warm on the models. Last week overperformed too

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27 / 7 likely the coldest day of the next 7-10 days and perhaps beyond that or well beyond that with highs in the 30s or just to 40 in the warmest sites.  Warmer Thu back to the 40s and sunny, 50s Friday and Saturday and pending on clouds Sunday could push upper 60s, before the next threat of rain / showers arrives.  Ridge holds out west the next 4-5 days with records warmth there.  Cooler Mon/Tue followed by a warmer Wed/Thu and overall back and forth likely slightly warmer than normal through the 26/27th with the last week similar perhaps warmer.to close.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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