March 2026

[MJO812]

Dont post anything if these runs come true.

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just 13 days away at the end of March….and on an operational model….what could possibly go wrong?? Lol 

Well, you'll have no idea if you dropped Pivotal, lol (too early)...

[donsutherland1]

The storm currently bringing blizzard conditions to parts of the Upper Midwest will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region tonight and tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Strong thunderstorms are possible in parts of the area. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs.

Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday

However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Temperatures should return to the middle and upper 40s by Thursday and the 50s to end the week. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. 

The major weather story this week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -9.19 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.602 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Dont post anything if these runs come true.

They won’t.  Look at this week a coastal turned into a massive cutter and the cold air disappeared 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Even if it does, it will be an all-rain event. Temps are going to be in the 50s.

You're not even technically in this geographical forum. Why do you always speak as if you speak for the entire population of the forum when at best you're the southern extreme.

[weathermedic]

 

Tons of lightning all up and down the cold front traversing the country now

[MJO812]

Getting windy

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

They won’t.  Look at this week a coastal turned into a massive cutter and the cold air disappeared 

Anyone still hoping for arctic cold and snowstorms are trying to get blood from a stone at this point. This winter is cooked, been cooked. Done, over, finished, history, fat lady has sung and went home, stick a fork in it, bring down the curtain, it’s over Johnny, goodnight and goodbye, adios, dead, in the grave, RIP. A former winter…..

[steve392]

Had some very heavy rains around 3am on/off for about an hour or so.   Winds really blowing too. 

[JerseyWx]

Already 0.6" overnight.  We'll see what today holds.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Anyone still hoping for arctic cold and snowstorms are trying to get blood from a stone at this point. This winter is cooked, been cooked. Done, over, finished, history, fat lady has sung and went home, stick a fork in it, bring down the curtain, it’s over Johnny, goodnight and goodbye, adios, dead, in the grave, RIP. A former winter…..

Yeah, we kind of lucked out with the late February snowstorm. There was just enough cold air for that to happen. If it happened even a few days later, it would have been a completely different story. There just isn't any cold air for a snowstorm right now. I mean, we just had 4 days in the 70s, with 2 of those in the 80s last week. Any snow (if it does happen) will be just like last Thursday: brief and will not accumulate.

[Brian5671]

About .50 here so far 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This heat event will be among the most impressive heat events on record relative to climatology. It will rank up there with the March 2012, June 2021 PNW, September-October 2024 Southwest heat events in terms of peak temperatures relative to normal. The national March high temperature mark of 108° should fall. Numerous cities will surpass not just March, but also April monthly records.

This closest analog in our area for out of season historic warmth and 500mb ridging was probably February 2018 with that record ridge and early 80° heat.

But this heat will be more extended and of a greater magnitude over a larger region. Plus the location and coming a month later allows for much higher actual temperatures.