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March Madness


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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like mid month will offer something more wintry. Obviously tough to nail with confidence thus far out but battleground nearby. 

I'll be surprised if we end up missing out entirely in March...it definitely doesn't look as good as I thought since the stratosphere ended up delayed a few weeks, though. Not the worse thing in the world from a DJFM standpoint because it will chip into the negative margin relative to my seasonal forecast. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why should we lock in a week of 70’s when every other one has failed? I hope it does. Winter is done as is snow. I’ll believe it when I’m sitting on my deck tanning next week in 70’s

So you’re forecasting a week of 30s and drizzle? Good luck.

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The northern jet has been few hundred miles further south in the northeast than in recent years. It’s been very warm outside of that area—west, south etc.

 

With climo into March, even if the persistence sticks, the jet persistence lifts north and the boundary for BN is north of us. Last Saturday with 50’s and no real warm front, gave us a taste of what’s close by in this pattern—we  just need climo progression.
 

With that, and no -NAO on the horizon ,  it makes sense that our first widespread 60+ degree days in months should arrive next week…

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fine print DJF reason I hate  Met winter  and any Met season record doesn't reflect on the true season 

Exactly.  That providence record is a joke. If they beat the real winter season then that’s legit. Other than that, it’s Man made nonsense.  Beating their all time amount in one storm…that’s legit.  But not this. 

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The northern jet has been few hundred miles further south in the northeast than in recent years. It’s been very warm outside of that area—west, south etc.

 

With climo into March, even if the persistence sticks, the jet persistence lifts north and the boundary for BN is north of us. Last Saturday with 50’s and no real warm front, gave us a taste of what’s close by in this pattern—we  just need climo progression.
 

With that, and no -NAO on the horizon ,  it makes sense that our first widespread 60+ degree days in months should arrive next week…

'nough said,

image.png.36a9c02a127455a6797a1b118345e5af.png

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

'nough said,

image.png.36a9c02a127455a6797a1b118345e5af.png

Exactly. It’s like we forgot that this could happen. Then start thinking back to the good ol’ climate days…

Recency bias.

We were in a persistent cold spot like the one in your stagnant warm backyard pool that just needs to get mixed out or cooked by increasing sun angle

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