Spring 2026 Med/Long Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

8 hours ago, Maxim said:

Well I look at the bigger picture and I can clearly see it’s been a very warm spring for most of the Midwest, and that for most cities (including mine) cool shots this month have been transient and not severe. Couldn’t care less about extremely localized areas which happened to see more severe cold this month (mainly due to the daily minimums on nights that produced strong radiative cooling). I’m running about one degree below normal and should finish the month right around average, and it would appear the vast majority of cities will finish the month within a degree of normal. I care about the Philly warmth because these heat pulses we’ve been seeing are insane and growing, it’s not normal at all. As for the “cold” period this May, there have been far more impressive cold early-mid May periods, even in recent years like 2020, which I mentioned earlier. Could’ve sworn I even saw flakes flying in 2020 tbh.

There is a forum for the Philly area.  Feel free to post Philly stats there.  As for me, this month is -3.1 so far through May 26.  I don't think this month will end up in the + departure column after a warm March/April.

[Chicago Storm]

Philadelphia just had three straight days of 95°+ from May 18-20 (peaking at 98° on the 19th). That alone outweighs any of the cool shots we’ve seen this month. Even where you’re located, your spring has been quite mild. Some cool days here and there in early May don’t negate that fact. Chicago recorded its most 70°+ days this March-April, and Indianapolis had its warmest April on record. Tons of cities in the region are running one of their warmest springs on record, even in spite of the early-mid May cool shots which were underwhelming for the most part (2020 was far more impressive in that regard). And with the ongoing stretch of mild weather continuing through the end of the month, there will be hardly any negative anomalies in the region to speak of once May comes to a close. Going to end up being a very average month overall, albeit on the dry side. Some of y’all have your heads so buried in the sand that you’re cherry-picking brief cool shots and ignoring the broader pattern.

lol

[Cary67]

17 hours ago, Maxim said:

Aren’t you the one who cries like a petulant child any time Dayton fails to reach 90° during the summer? Quite ironic coming from a clown such as yourself, whose perspective holds no weight to me (or even anyone with half a brain). Almost seems like projection on your part, it’s strange. Regardless, you come off as the village idiot, and somehow you seem proud of it.

 Post designed for Maxim(um) effect and Maxim(um) damage 

[buckeye]

17 hours ago, Maxim said:

Aren’t you the one who cries like a petulant child any time Dayton fails to reach 90° during the summer? Quite ironic coming from a clown such as yourself, whose perspective holds no weight to me (or even anyone with half a brain). Almost seems like projection on your part, it’s strange. Regardless, you come off as the village idiot, and somehow you seem proud of it.

at least he knows what village he lives in.    

[Nelson]

You know it's bad when the Med range thread = Summer Banter thread.

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, roardog said:

Who cares about Philadelphia or what happened in Chicago in March and April? You said the cool early this month was transient and here it is May 26 and I’m running about 4 degrees below normal on the month. That isn’t exactly transient cool. 

It was a rough winter for the warm troll crowd. Many of them went into hibernation but like other things in nature they woke up with the warmth of spring. This will be the 5th of the past 7 months that most of Michigan saw negative temp departures, so of course youre going to hear nothing but March/April March/April...

[michsnowfreak]

Looking very dry as May turns to June.

[Danny8]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was a rough winter for the warm troll crowd. Many of them went into hibernation but like other things in nature they woke up with the warmth of spring. This will be the 5th of the past 7 months that most of Michigan saw negative temp departures, so of course youre going to hear nothing but March/April March/April...

I think that a lot of the frustration comes from saying that April (7th warmest on record in Detroit and Chicago) is equivalent to any of these months being below average, when none of them were anywhere near 7th coldest.

Essentially the argument you guys are saying is 7th warmest is balanced by being colder than normal, even if it’s like the 50th coldest (I didn’t verify the actual ranking, feel free to check what those below average months ranked). So it just feels like a false equivalency that you guys are arguing.

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, Danny8 said:

I think that a lot of the frustration comes from saying that April (7th warmest on record in Detroit and Chicago) is equivalent to any of these months being below average, when none of them were anywhere near 7th coldest.

Essentially the argument you guys are saying is 7th warmest is balanced by being colder than normal, even if it’s like the 50th coldest (I didn’t verify the actual ranking, feel free to check what those below average months ranked). So it just feels like a false equivalency that you guys are arguing.

Who is "arguing" that? Who said anything even remotely comparing one month to another? It isnt frustration for them , its trolling. All you need to do is look at their post history...what they post about, when they post, and how they name-call and attack. That tells you everything you need to know. 

BTW, who said April is equivalent to any of the months below avg? Ill wait. I know I mentioned Aprils warm ranking in April. See, I have a preference (cold) but not a bias. I discuss all weather, as do others here. They do not. Its nothing but warm trolling, and then complaining that warmth is not brought up enough, tweeted enough, blah blah. 

Dec-Jan ranked 36th coldest of 153 years. Not a bad ranking for a winter the usual suspects thought would torch. Tell me, when have they ever even ACKNOWLEDGED a month that was colder than avg?

[A-L-E-K]

the upcoming super nino winter gonna have the weenies losing their minds when it's 70 in december

[roardog]

29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

the upcoming super nino winter gonna have the weenies losing their minds when it's 70 in december

I know 1982 had the super warm Christmas but those real torchy high temperatures actually occur more in a Nina when the southern US is warm and the SE ridge bulges north. People wanting that outcome will probably be disappointed when the Nino delivers a barrage of days that are cloudy, windy and in the 30s.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I know 1982 had the super warm Christmas but those real torchy high temperatures actually occur more in a Nina when the southern US is warm and the SE ridge bulges north. People wanting that outcome will probably be disappointed when the Nino delivers a barrage of days that are cloudy, windy and in the 30s.

100%

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

the upcoming super nino winter gonna have the weenies losing their minds when it's 70 in december

On the contrary....everyone goes into strong/super ninos expecting a less wintry than avg winter. It is the warmista weenies who will lose their minds if the warmest strong nino analog doesnt turn out to be the best analog, and/or if its snowier than expected despite mild temps.

[roardog]

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

On the contrary....everyone goes into strong/super ninos expecting a less wintry than avg winter. It is the warmista weenies who will lose their minds if the warmest strong nino analog doesnt turn out to be the best analog, and/or if its snowier than expected despite mild temps.

2015-2016 had some big snowstorms here. Once upon a time there was a map posted here that showed that once you cross into super Nino threshold that we actually start to get above normal winter precip. The worst part of a Nino around here is the tendency for dryness. Even the weaker ones where we get below normal temperatures have a tendency to be dry. If super Nino can get us above normal precip, I would take that any day over a garbage non Nino winter like 01-02 or 11-12.