WxMan1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Yep, at least through 03Z Mon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Going to be reeeeeal interesting to see if the GFS holds at 6z. Suspect it’ll nudge a bit toward the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, jayyy said: Going to be reeeeeal interesting to see if the GFS holds at 6z. Suspect it’ll nudge a bit toward the others Yeah, from what I see through 12Z Mon from the 06Z NAM is that the positive snow depth change is MUCH lower than the 00Z NAM. Ruh roh folks. What did the EC and ECAIFS pick up at 00Z that the other guidance didn't? Something was captured upstream, because I fear we're seeing a trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 WB 3K NAM does intensify as it gets to our latitude and annihilates the eastern shore through southern NE. Just does not dig enough southwest to give us the goods. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Enjoy DE crew URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 DEZ001-002-212100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ New Castle-Kent- Including the cities of Wilmington and Dover 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Kent and New Castle Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 DEZ003-004-212100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/ Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches- Including the cities of Georgetown and Rehoboth Beach 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...Delaware Beaches and Inland Sussex Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts and significant drifting of snow possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Morning discussion from LWX says warning/advisory decisions/issuance will be done by day shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Latest range map from lwx, just comical at this point 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16". These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ... DCA 6" IAD 7" BWI 10" SBY 15" PHL 12" ACY 16" NYC 12" ISP 15" BOS 18" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16". These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ... DCA 6" IAD 7" BWI 10" SBY 15" PHL 12" ACY 16" NYC 12" ISP 15" BOS 18" Hope you are correct!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16". These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ... DCA 6" IAD 7" BWI 10" SBY 15" PHL 12" ACY 16" NYC 12" ISP 15" BOS 18" there high end totals were jus increased as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 06Z RGEM Kuchera snow vs. 00Z totals. Still rather conservative (surface thermals) and mainly late afternoon into Sunday night. Areas in between the monster bands near the Atlantic Coast and the inverted trough band west could very well get sub-warning criteria snow given the weaker rates and marginal thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Snip from the latest LWX AFD... Winter Storm Watches have been expanded along the remaining western shore of Maryland given a slight westward progression amongst the guidance. Overall the 00z model suite remains fairly consistent on the track of low pressure from the southeast U.S later today and off the Carolina coast tonight before shifting north toward the Delmarva coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Some questions remain in how close to the coast the low pressure system is and it`s interaction with an inverted trough that looks to set up in the vicinity of the area Sunday evening into Monday. The 00z Canadian and European solutions continue to trend a little closer to coast with the low pressure system similar to the NAM/GFS counterparts. Even with that said, the low still remains 200-400 NM away from Washington DC and Baltimore, pulling the bullseye of substantial snow toward areas east of the I-95 corridor. Precipitation is expected to develop across the area predawn Sunday morning on the north side of developing surface low pressure to the southeast. It should be initially fall as rain or rain/snow mix as the low-levels will be too warm. In addition, the precipitation intensity initially will be light, so that any snow that falls will have a difficult time accumulating on roads other than grassy areas or at high elevations above 1500 feet. Most of the Sunday should be wet with a snow/rain mix falling at temperatures around 34 to 38 degrees. Any impactful snow (especially to road surfaces) looks to hold off until late Sunday evening into Monday morning. Lows Sunday night into Monday will fall close to freezing with teens and 20s over the mountains. This is when low pressure deepens off the coast and the upper level trough/inverted surface trough swings through. The wild card here is the interaction between these features with most of the guidance showing a narrow corridor of strong lift between central/northern MD down through northern VA and into the VA northern neck. This area seems to have the least amount of uncertainty with respect to QPF according to the latest 00Z EPS/GEFS ensembles with QPF amounts generally around three quarters of an inch liquid equivalent. While snow ratios will likely BE lower than normal (less than 10:1 especially to start), potential banding may offset lower ratios and more marginal temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning as colder air pushes in. General model consensus remains at a widespread 2 to 5 inches of snow along and north of I- 66/US-50 with lesser amounts in the Shenandoah Valley/central VA Piedmont and higher amounts along the western favored slopes of the Alleghenies as well as east of I-95. The probabilities for 4" of snow remain between 60 and 80 percent over the Alleghenies/crest of the Blue Ridge with 40-50 percent probs further east into the metro areas. These numbers come down into the 35 to 45 percent range for 6" with the highest percentages over the mountains and east of the I- 95 corridor. Any wiggle in track and placement of the inverted trough could move the needle up or down for these totals. Given the variability any warning or advisory decisions will likely be made on the day shift today or at the latest this evening. The snow will likely continue through Sunday night before tapering in intensity or exiting the area around daybreak Monday. Gusty NW winds 25-40 mph) will follow Monday in the wake of the storm. Elsewhere, light snow is expected Sunday night tapering off after midnight from west to east, except in the mountain areas where upslope flow will continue to generate snow showers. Highs Monday warm back into the mid 30s and low 40s outside the mountains. Overnight lows Monday night fall back into the teens and low 20s and cold air advection returns in the wake of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheColtrane Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16". These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ... DCA 6" That's snowfall depth? I'll take $17 billion on the under please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 WB 6Z GFS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nothing like waking up this this morning to a text messages, of a Blizzard Warning. First time I every received a text message like that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Maaan it feels like we are gonna get unlucky with this thing and watch it slip off to the NE while we caught in between with rates not quite enough with the marginal temps. I'd love to be wrong, but looking at 6z so far and the 0z Euro and AI? Starting not to feel it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcane33 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 15 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Nothing like waking up this this morning to a text messages, of a Blizzard Warning. First time I every received a text message like that. I'll be hitting the grocery store here in Harrington before the peeps wake up and realize what's coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1114 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Maaan it feels like we are gonna get unlucky with this thing and watch it slip off to the NE while we caught in between with rates not quite enough with the marginal temps. I'd love to be wrong, but looking at 6z so far and the 0z Euro and AI? Starting not to feel it...That’s exactly what’s gonna happen unfortunately…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Tricky forecast for Nova Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The 06z GFS would lead one to believe there will be a rapid decrease in snow totals moving west across MD into nVA, I think it would be reasonable to expect Baltimore to get nearly twice as much as DC whatever the outcome. This region is not going to be ground zero for the blizzard but I doubt it reduces to anything close to a non-event, unless it would be a few parts of central VA possibly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tito Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 hours ago, yoda said: Enjoy DE crew URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 DEZ001-002-212100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ New Castle-Kent- Including the cities of Wilmington and Dover 327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Kent and New Castle Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible. Ohhh we will. Ty. Regardless of how much snow falls, the winds here by the coast is a story unto its self, with any model run on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Hopefully the bleed E/NE ends today, but this has the feels of those storms that just keep slipping away. Latest LWX map below. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6z Euro would give most of us low end warning level snow coming mostly from the IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 WB 6Z EURO zoomed on IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just stopping by to say we want to see plenty of pics. We got our 12-inch snow earlier this year. Hope y'all get buried.... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO zoomed on IVT Thank, gonna be tricky forecasting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The euro did move back west from 0z, I didn’t look at frames but allsnow up in NYC said 50+ miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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