2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[WxMan1]

Yep, at least through 03Z Mon...

[jayyy]

Going to be reeeeeal interesting to see if the GFS holds at 6z. Suspect it’ll nudge a bit toward the others

[WxMan1]

Just now, jayyy said:

Going to be reeeeeal interesting to see if the GFS holds at 6z. Suspect it’ll nudge a bit toward the others

Yeah, from what I see through 12Z Mon from the 06Z NAM is that the positive snow depth change is MUCH lower than the 00Z NAM.

Ruh roh folks. What did the EC and ECAIFS pick up at 00Z that the other guidance didn't? Something was captured upstream, because I fear we're seeing a trend. 

[Jake Wx]

[Jake Wx]

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM does intensify as it gets to our latitude and annihilates the eastern shore through southern NE. Just does not dig enough southwest to give us the goods.

[yoda]

Enjoy DE crew 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

DEZ001-002-212100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/
New Castle-Kent-
Including the cities of Wilmington and Dover
327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and
  14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Kent and New Castle Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per
  hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and
  drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

DEZ003-004-212100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-
Including the cities of Georgetown and Rehoboth Beach
327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 6 and 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Delaware Beaches and Inland Sussex Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds
  could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per
  hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts and significant drifting of
  snow possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with
your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

[yoda]

Morning discussion from LWX says warning/advisory decisions/issuance will be done by day shift

[Jake Wx]

Latest range map from lwx, just comical at this point

[Roger Smith]

Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16".

These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ...

DCA 6"

IAD 7"

BWI 10"

SBY 15"

PHL 12"

ACY 16"

NYC 12"

ISP 15"

BOS 18"

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16".

These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ...

DCA 6"

IAD 7"

BWI 10"

SBY 15"

PHL 12"

ACY 16"

NYC 12"

ISP 15"

BOS 18"

Hope you are correct!!!

[Jake Wx]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16".

These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ...

DCA 6"

IAD 7"

BWI 10"

SBY 15"

PHL 12"

ACY 16"

NYC 12"

ISP 15"

BOS 18"

there high end totals were jus increased as well!

[WxMan1]

06Z RGEM Kuchera snow vs. 00Z totals. Still rather conservative (surface thermals) and mainly late afternoon into Sunday night. Areas in between the monster bands near the Atlantic Coast and the inverted trough band west could very well get sub-warning criteria snow given the weaker rates and marginal thermals. 

 

 

[arlwx12]

Snip from the latest LWX AFD...

Winter Storm Watches have been expanded along the remaining western
shore of Maryland given a slight westward progression amongst the
guidance. Overall the 00z model suite remains fairly consistent on
the track of low pressure from the southeast U.S later today and off
the Carolina coast tonight before shifting north toward the Delmarva
coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Some questions remain in
how close to the coast the low pressure system is and it`s
interaction with an inverted trough that looks to set up in the
vicinity of the area Sunday evening into Monday.

The 00z Canadian and European solutions continue to trend a little
closer to coast with the low pressure system similar to the NAM/GFS
counterparts. Even with that said, the low still remains 200-400 NM
away from Washington DC and Baltimore, pulling the bullseye of
substantial snow toward areas east of the I-95 corridor.

Precipitation is expected to develop across the area predawn Sunday
morning on the north side of developing surface low pressure to the
southeast. It should be initially fall as rain or rain/snow mix as
the low-levels will be too warm. In addition, the precipitation
intensity initially will be light, so that any snow that falls will
have a difficult time accumulating on roads other than grassy areas
or at high elevations above 1500 feet. Most of the Sunday should be
wet with a snow/rain mix falling at temperatures around 34 to 38
degrees.

Any impactful snow (especially to road surfaces) looks to hold off
until late Sunday evening into Monday morning. Lows Sunday night
into Monday will fall close to freezing with teens and 20s over the
mountains. This is when low pressure deepens off the coast and the
upper level trough/inverted surface trough swings through. The wild
card here is the interaction between these features with most of the
guidance showing a narrow corridor of strong lift between
central/northern MD down through northern VA and into the VA
northern neck. This area seems to have the least amount of
uncertainty with respect to QPF according to the latest 00Z EPS/GEFS
ensembles with QPF amounts generally around three quarters of an
inch liquid equivalent. While snow ratios will likely BE lower than
normal (less than 10:1 especially to start), potential banding may
offset lower ratios and more marginal temperatures Sunday night into
Monday morning as colder air pushes in. General model consensus
remains at a widespread 2 to 5 inches of snow along and north of I-
66/US-50 with lesser amounts in the Shenandoah Valley/central VA
Piedmont and higher amounts along the western favored slopes of
the Alleghenies as well as east of I-95. The probabilities for
4" of snow remain between 60 and 80 percent over the
Alleghenies/crest of the Blue Ridge with 40-50 percent probs
further east into the metro areas. These numbers come down into
the 35 to 45 percent range for 6" with the highest percentages
over the mountains and east of the I- 95 corridor. Any wiggle in
track and placement of the inverted trough could move the
needle up or down for these totals. Given the variability any
warning or advisory decisions will likely be made on the day
shift today or at the latest this evening.

The snow will likely continue through Sunday night before tapering
in intensity or exiting the area around daybreak Monday. Gusty NW
winds 25-40 mph) will follow Monday in the wake of the storm.
Elsewhere, light snow is expected Sunday night tapering off after
midnight from west to east, except in the mountain areas where
upslope flow will continue to generate snow showers.

Highs Monday warm back into the mid 30s and low 40s outside the
mountains. Overnight lows Monday night fall back into the teens and
low 20s and cold air advection returns in the wake of the
system.

[TheColtrane]

24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Not only comical but capping Baltimore at 12"?? I would say 16" is clearly on the table so that should read 1-16".

These would be my over/under predictions at present (equal chances of being low or high) ...

DCA 6"

That's snowfall depth? I'll take $17 billion on the under please.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS

[GreyHat]

Nothing like waking up this this morning to a text messages,  of a Blizzard Warning. First time I every received a text message like that.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Maaan it feels like we are gonna get unlucky with this thing and watch it slip off to the NE while we caught in between with rates not quite enough with the marginal temps. I'd love to be wrong, but looking at 6z so far and the 0z Euro and AI? Starting not to feel it...

[snowcane33]

15 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Nothing like waking up this this morning to a text messages,  of a Blizzard Warning. First time I every received a text message like that.

 

I'll be hitting the grocery store here in Harrington before the peeps wake up and realize what's coming.

[davidjd1114]

Maaan it feels like we are gonna get unlucky with this thing and watch it slip off to the NE while we caught in between with rates not quite enough with the marginal temps. I'd love to be wrong, but looking at 6z so far and the 0z Euro and AI? Starting not to feel it...

That’s exactly what’s gonna happen unfortunately…


.

[Solution Man]

Tricky forecast for Nova

[Roger Smith]

The 06z GFS would lead one to believe there will be a rapid decrease in snow totals moving west across MD into nVA, I think it would be reasonable to expect Baltimore to get nearly twice as much as DC whatever the outcome. This region is not going to be ground zero for the blizzard but I doubt it reduces to anything close to a non-event, unless it would be a few parts of central VA possibly. 

[Tito]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Enjoy DE crew 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

DEZ001-002-212100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/
New Castle-Kent-
Including the cities of Wilmington and Dover
327 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and
  14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Kent and New Castle Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per
  hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts possible. Blowing and
  drifting of snow, and whiteout conditions possible.

Ohhh we will. Ty. Regardless of how much snow falls, the winds here by the coast is a story unto its self, with any model run on the table. 

[snowfan]

Hopefully the bleed E/NE ends today, but this has the feels of those storms that just keep slipping away. Latest LWX map below.