jayyy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 778 comments on a thread created hours ago while I was at work. I knew it had to be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: Euro AI east First negative tick all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro AI eastDamn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Where's Chuck? Cowbell +PNA baby its weird how he disappears during a storm only to come back when -pna and -pdo re-appear 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: Euro AI east You're fired. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro ai not so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Looks like the AI makes the trough too broad. I'm behind on pivotal so have to wait and see if that is the fly in the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro doesn't look half bad... very slightly better at h5 at hour 5 (early, yes, i know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, anotherman said: Damn We ride the GFS at this point. It's no king but it has the lead on this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Ridge is better out west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 +PNA ridge asshair more west, heights an asshair higher downstream as well, all asshair changes though hr 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, jayyy said: Euro ai not so good AI isn't the best as we approach gametime where small scale details matter. Rely on the physics based guidance at this juncture. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro AI might also be mucking up the tilt with the trailing vort. Came closer this time, so maybe it was in a spot to be destructive. Maybe it can come closer again and pass out of the destructive zone into a more constructive one. We'll see... hopefully a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Confluence exiting quicker, hour 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Looks like the AI makes the trough too broad. I'm behind on pivotal so have to wait and see if that is the fly in the ointment.It is. And it’s something we need to watch. AI EC may not get QPF distribution correct but it’s very solid up top. GFS has been leading the way and has been ROCK steady so it’s nothing to freak out over (4-6+ is still solid in late feb if AI played out) but we def can’t just toss. Edit — to CAPEs point though, physics based models for complex setups under 48 hours should be our focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Trough less consolidated, by an asshair amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, CAPE said: AI isn't the best as we approach gametime where small scale details matter. Rely on the physics based guidance at this juncture. i was going to say the same thing. Is the AI even a high res model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: This was what he posted on his Facebook page one day ago... Remember folks on Accu forums back in the day talking about this guy - didnt know who he was then - still follow his page now , but yeah it is difficult to tolerate Dave... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Trough broader, and the euro is slightly east at 39 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 AI is basically back at 12z for totals, to put it in perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 less neg tilt at hour 42 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 so back to a non event for the Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 hang on, that alberta vort is a bit closer than 18z. my thinking is that maybe we're risking a more OTS solution (bc it acts as a kicker) for a phase with that vort? maybe? idk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bncho said: hang on, that alberta vort is a bit closer than 18z. my thinking is that maybe we're risking a more OTS solution (bc it acts as a kicker) for a phase with that vort? maybe? idk. Yes, basically if that keeps coming in fast it can start interacting more usefully with the trough, whereas if it is far away it won't hinder it from tilting, and landing in the middle area will prevent an easy tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I am way behind... but the H5@36 looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 the euro is simply a non event 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Ji said: i was going to say the same thing. Is the AI even a high res model? Better for medium to long range forecasting for general pattern recognition and and more efficient wrt computing resources. Not the best inside 3 days with resolving details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I could be convinced its better at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Ji said: the euro is simply a non event Ok I can't buy this map, not even coping. Boston will score big here, basically no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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