jayyy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 778 comments on a thread created hours ago while I was at work. I knew it had to be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, bncho said: Euro AI east First negative tick all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro AI eastDamn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Where's Chuck? Cowbell +PNA baby its weird how he disappears during a storm only to come back when -pna and -pdo re-appear 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, bncho said: Euro AI east You're fired. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro ai not so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Looks like the AI makes the trough too broad. I'm behind on pivotal so have to wait and see if that is the fly in the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro doesn't look half bad... very slightly better at h5 at hour 5 (early, yes, i know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, anotherman said: Damn We ride the GFS at this point. It's no king but it has the lead on this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Ridge is better out west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago +PNA ridge asshair more west, heights an asshair higher downstream as well, all asshair changes though hr 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, jayyy said: Euro ai not so good AI isn't the best as we approach gametime where small scale details matter. Rely on the physics based guidance at this juncture. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro AI might also be mucking up the tilt with the trailing vort. Came closer this time, so maybe it was in a spot to be destructive. Maybe it can come closer again and pass out of the destructive zone into a more constructive one. We'll see... hopefully a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Confluence exiting quicker, hour 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like the AI makes the trough too broad. I'm behind on pivotal so have to wait and see if that is the fly in the ointment.It is. And it’s something we need to watch. AI EC may not get QPF distribution correct but it’s very solid up top. GFS has been leading the way and has been ROCK steady so it’s nothing to freak out over (4-6+ is still solid in late feb if AI played out) but we def can’t just toss. Edit — to CAPEs point though, physics based models for complex setups under 48 hours should be our focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Trough less consolidated, by an asshair amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, CAPE said: AI isn't the best as we approach gametime where small scale details matter. Rely on the physics based guidance at this juncture. i was going to say the same thing. Is the AI even a high res model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: This was what he posted on his Facebook page one day ago... Remember folks on Accu forums back in the day talking about this guy - didnt know who he was then - still follow his page now , but yeah it is difficult to tolerate Dave... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Trough broader, and the euro is slightly east at 39 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago AI is basically back at 12z for totals, to put it in perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago less neg tilt at hour 42 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago so back to a non event for the Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago hang on, that alberta vort is a bit closer than 18z. my thinking is that maybe we're risking a more OTS solution (bc it acts as a kicker) for a phase with that vort? maybe? idk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, bncho said: hang on, that alberta vort is a bit closer than 18z. my thinking is that maybe we're risking a more OTS solution (bc it acts as a kicker) for a phase with that vort? maybe? idk. Yes, basically if that keeps coming in fast it can start interacting more usefully with the trough, whereas if it is far away it won't hinder it from tilting, and landing in the middle area will prevent an easy tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I am way behind... but the H5@36 looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago the euro is simply a non event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Ji said: i was going to say the same thing. Is the AI even a high res model? Better for medium to long range forecasting for general pattern recognition and and more efficient wrt computing resources. Not the best inside 3 days with resolving details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I could be convinced its better at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Ji said: the euro is simply a non event Ok I can't buy this map, not even coping. Boston will score big here, basically no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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