February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Yes!

Isn't this exciting

It is but Dr. No just has to ruin it a bit - lol. Hopefully tomorrow things keep going positive. 

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

Look no further than a week ago. GFS had 6 inches, RGEM had nothing. End result was somewhere in the middle.

Yeah but this is even more extreme. The middle here wouldn’t be so bad. 

[LVblizzard]

On 2/13/2024 at 1:37 PM, LVblizzard said:

It is actually comical how far off yesterday’s 12z Euro was. Many of the areas in the 2-4” zone got a foot. And most of south Jersey away from Philly got shut out or close to it.

In case anyone is wondering about a situation in which the Euro failed spectacularly in the short range. This is from 2 years ago.

[WxUnit]

Either the GFS or EURO are totally wrong. Whats weird is it starts with the difference in northern stream about 6 hours out. So strange and unprecedented to my eye. 

[WxUnit]

3 minutes ago, WxUnit said:

Either the GFS or EURO are totally wrong. Whats weird is it starts with the difference in northern stream about 6 hours out. So strange and unprecedented to my eye. 

For reference at six hours out...

[MickeyTim6533]

Is this really going to be a rug pull? 

[RedSky]

EPS is east with the op the war is in fact on

[MickeyTim6533]

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

EPS is east with the op the war is in fact on

UH OH......

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Is this really going to be a rug pull? 

Euro is alone and a terrible model this winter.

[MickeyTim6533]

seems like Hurricane is hugging the EURO. This place will burn if the EURO begins the Lucy pull

 

[BlueDXer75]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is alone and a terrible model this winter.

GFS has been steady until this point, while Euro has been flip flopping 

[ncforecaster89]

47 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

seems like Hurricane is hugging the EURO. This place will burn if the EURO begins the Lucy pull

 

I have no idea who “hurricane” happens to be, but I’m not surprised that they are “hugging the EURO”—as it’s the main fall-back approach for most forecasters.  That’s not meant to be demeaning, but rather a reflection of the general consensus due to the EURO’s general superior 500 mb scores. 
 

That said, there’s still an ample amount of time for relatively significant synoptic changes to materialize that could change the current model consensus considerably.  Right now, a blended approach amongst the Euro/UKMET/GFS/CMC/NAM would be best, in my opinion—which doesn’t simply place the latest Euro solution above all others.  

[ncforecaster89]

I’ll add that I’m posting in this particular sub forum because I’m considering a chase to your specific area, depending on how things evolve over the next 12-24 hours.   

[LowerBucksWx]

9 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I have no idea who “hurricane” happens to be, but I’m not surprised that they are “hugging the EURO”—as it’s the main fall-back approach for most forecasters.  That’s not meant to be demeaning, but rather a reflection of the general consensus due to the EURO’s general superior 500 mb scores. 
 

That said, there’s still an ample amount of time for relatively significant synoptic changes to materialize that could change the current model consensus considerably.  Right now, a blended approach amongst the Euro/UKMET/GFS/CMC/NAM would be best, in my opinion—which doesn’t simply place the latest Euro solution above all others.  

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz  - retired longtime TV met in Philly

[Ralph Wiggum]

HRDPS jumped east and will be a scraper.

[Duca892]

This would be one of those “why do I do this hobby again?” Kind of things if this thing now trends back east

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z NAM 12k will also be east and less snow. Avg event this run and back down to earth.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Rather significant jump east. Misses the capture and tug west to keep it tucked, thus escapes east and grazes the shore.

Lol, cant make this stuff up. I dont think this is just windshield wiper stuff either this is a different synoptic entirely.

[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Rather significant jump east. Misses the capture and tug west to keep it tucked, thus escapes east and grazes the shore.

Lol, cant make this stuff up. I dont think this is just windshield wiper stuff either this is a different synoptic completely.

Look at hours 45 and 48. The run recovers and gives all of us heavy snow.

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Rather significant jump east. Misses the capture and tug west to keep it tucked, thus escapes east and grazes the shore.

Lol, cant make this stuff up. I dont think this is just windshield wiper stuff either this is a different synoptic entirely.

Go to bed Ralph lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

Look at hours 45 and 48. The run recovers and gives all of us heavy snow.

I saw, but leading to that point clearly is showing how fragile this is and how the euro could be getting a handle on the evolution. Maybe im wrong.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I saw, but leading to that point clearly is showing how fragile this is and how the euro could be getting a handle on the evolution. Maybe im wrong.

It was a late phase

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looping last 3 runs at 48hrs on the 6z the slp is 100 miles farther east. Thats not an hallucination.

[LVblizzard]

We’re at the point where we’re running out of time for any significant trends. It’s likely that the GFS is too amped and the Euro is too progressive. Blend them together and it’s still a warning level event for our area.

That’s enough model watching for me tonight. I need sleep.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It was a late phase

Which is ok farther N into NYC where u are as it gives time to recover, but its a tightrope down here west of i95. Still looks good for a plowable event here for now.

 

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looping last 3 runs at 48hrs on the 6z the slp is 100 miles farther east. Thats not an hallucination.

I saw the same thing it captures late and doubles down to even more snow haha

[The Iceman]

6z nam seems ok to me but I also just woke up to pee

 

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[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I saw the same thing it captures late and doubles down to even more snow haha

3k is settling me down. 50 miles west with the slp. Yeah, enough models for tonight. G'night

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

6z nam seems ok to me but I also just woke up to pee

 

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40" at ACY. Might need a casino run.

[Ralph Wiggum]

BOOM!

Upgraded to a warning. Second I shut my eyes the alert starts going off. Ha!