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February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

Mikeymac5306

By Mikeymac5306,
in Philadelphia Region

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Newman
Newman

Honestly the Euro isn't that far off, it's 6-12 hours too late on phasing with that southern energy that the GFS does. Everything else looks great, we just need that southern vort ejecting out of the

JTA66
JTA66

Howard said models suck and are useless. Ji cancelled winter. Randy told Chuck to stfu. And Hoffman said it can’t snow anymore.   i think that covers most of it.

zenmsav6810
zenmsav6810

Sorry about not posting lately. Got into a bad ski accident on Friday. Snowboarder hit me from behind Fractured my Humerus... I guess no shovel duty for me. 

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JTA66

JTA66

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So what didnI miss today? Catch me up. Has there really been a complete cave to the gfs or are wi shield wipering to meet in the middle?

Howard said models suck and are useless.

Ji cancelled winter.

Randy told Chuck to stfu.

And Hoffman said it can’t snow anymore.
 

i think that covers most of it.

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Duca892

Duca892

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hurricane went on to say the European is superior and the gfs should not be believed and the gefs dont agree with it. Dont shoot the messenger.

Yea but I mean… didnt the euro just take big steps towards the GFS?

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WxUnit

WxUnit

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hurricane went on to say the European is superior and the gfs should not be believed and the gefs dont agree with it. Dont shoot the messenger.

For what its worth he was going off the 12z runs rather then the 18z runs.

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JTA66

JTA66

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WxUnit said:

For what its worth he was going off the 12z runs rather then the 18z runs.

I was wondering that yesterday when Ralph gave the update. It seemed like Hurricane was reacting to the 12z runs. But I didn’t watch the video or know when he records them, just my hunch.
 

Still, Hurricane knows his $hit, so it would be foolish to dismiss his thoughts.

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Howard said models suck and are useless.

Ji cancelled winter.

Randy told Chuck to stfu.

And Hoffman said it can’t snow anymore.
 

i think that covers most of it.

Hey now, well that's encouraging mad guy stuff. Very promising...they mean it.

The 0z stuff is where I start to take a side. If things go south, I'm tossing my 12" B&W TV and assorted cassettes out the window.Maybe a couple 8 tracks if I'm really mad...vinyl no way.

Still time ..

38F

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted

I think that huge shift west on the Euro is the step we needed for a true convergence/compromise on the models. I'm still thinking a mostly SE of I-95 hit with coastal Jersey and Delmarva taking the brunt of it. Areas to the NW will see some snow, potentially most of it from the IVT. There will unfortunately be a screw zone most likely. However, we could still see additional ticks west (or east) on all guidance and really any solution is still fair game. Ensemble probabilities tell me that, if I was from Delaware up along coastal Jersey right now, I'd be feeling okay.

TBH, gut feeling is that something like the 18z AIFS is closest to the actual solution. But with how atrocious these models have been, it's hard to lean one way or the other.

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Birds~69

Birds~69

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Some of the most anticipated 0z runs in recent memory. Huge to see if this is a trend that continues or windshield wiper

I think the 0z will point or at least hint where we are going. Die hard weenies will keep tracking when the writing is on the wall...life of a weenie I guess?

 

 

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Duca892

Duca892

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

I think the 0z will point or at least hint where we are going. Die hard weenies will keep tracking when the writing is on the wall...life of a weenie I guess?

 

 

I would just throughly enjoy one last 2-4in snowfall here in Whitehall to put us at or above an average winter. Would be memorable 

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mcwx

mcwx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

I was wondering that yesterday when Ralph gave the update. It seemed like Hurricane was reacting to the 12z runs. But I didn’t watch the video or know when he records them, just my hunch.
 

Still, Hurricane knows his $hit, so it would be foolish to dismiss his thoughts.

as do many here...

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Newman said:

All long range NAM caveats apply, but it's looking great right now at hr60. At the very least, going to be a significant improvement from 12z and 18z. Trough is turning neutral over Tennessee and much more amplified. Just need to get that final backside trough energy to phase in...

Backside energy has slowed if you review past 2 or 3 nam runs. Might be a wash with the faster tilt but slower sw on the back. Not sure yet.

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Backside energy has slowed if you review past 2 or 3 nam runs. Might be a wash with the faster tilt but slower sw on the back. Not sure yet.

That backside vort actually adds angular momentum to the trough to give it the "boost" it needs and tilts it up the coast. NAM is verbatim a huge Delmarva crusher

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nice confluence as well. Alot of little pieces coming together.

Verbatim that backside vort is slower so it helps to tilt that PVA running out ahead up and into the coast, but it's not fast enough to phase and create a GFS type solution yet. Huge shift that way though.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Newman said:

ICON with a significant shift NW as well. Again, not fully to the tuck and stall solution but the shifts we needed are becoming real on every single piece of guidance

Seems like most guidance is honing in on a coastal hit for parts of DE and S NJ with lighter stuff N and W. Im sure we will have more wobbles but the general idea of extreme S Jersey being the jack zone seems pretty solid right now.

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Newman

Newman

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seems like most guidance is honing in on a coastal hit for parts of DE and S NJ with lighter stuff N and W. Im sure we will have more wobbles but the general idea of extreme S Jersey being the jack zone seems pretty solid right now.

Yep I'm expecting the GFS to shift east here and align more with the other models with a coastal hit. Like I said in a post earlier, this feels like a Delaware and coastal Jersey storm. We'll see what the GFS says here...

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