Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[stormtracker]

No significant or meaningful changes so far

[bncho]

southern stream a hair slower and more amped

[stormtracker]

Out to 30, nothing noteable at all so far

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Out to 30, nothing noteable at all so far

you do the good PBP while i get into all the noise level differences

[Amped]

Its ass hair differences so far.

[bncho]

confluence very slightly east, slightly more interaction between the two vorts at hour 30

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

That’s a scary thought for a year, our best short term model will quite literally be the Euro and then…the rgem? Hopefully we get a higher res AI item to help out.

I’m not sure how much ai would help short term forecasts. Seems like ai has more potential to handle long term chaos. Also, the term ai is so bloated. It’s basically just machine learning that we now have enough computing power to handle big data. When I think of ai I think of robots, not weather models lol.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

you do the good PBP while i get into all the noise level differences

Keep doing what you do.  That's how you learn.  But I'm not seeing anything worth commenting on.  There are some ass hair differences, but not even worth mentioning IMO

[jewell2188]

The reaching is mind blowing in here and it’s mind blowing…..the bust potential is far more significant than the opposite. But don’t worry, your local Vdot/mdot and whatever the hell DCcalls them selves are preparing for epic snow and end of the world stuff…ask me how I know….waste tax payer dollars at its finest!!!!!

[DDweatherman]

Just now, 87storms said:

I’m not sure how much ai would help short term forecasts. Seems like ai has more potential to handle long term chaos. Also, the term ai is so bloated. It’s basically just machine learning that we now have enough computing power to handle big data. When I think of ai I think of robots, not weather models lol.

I also consider it ML, like a lot of what we try to do with data analytics at work, it’s more learning algo’s than true AI. 

[stormtracker]

So at 42, there is a bit less phasing out west and up top also

[bncho]

[LeesburgWx]

I’m just saying, if it doesn’t change tonight, I think it’s game on. It has been locked in for multiple runs now

[winter_warlock]

Just now, jewell2188 said:

The reaching is mind blowing in here and it’s mind blowing…..the bust potential is far more significant than the opposite. But don’t worry, your local Vdot/mdot and whatever the hell DCcalls them selves are preparing for epic snow and end of the world stuff…ask me how I know….waste tax payer dollars at its finest!!!!!

Umm ok.. thanks for the scoop!

[bncho]

phasing is less at 42 but it is slightly more south?

[stormtracker]

This is likely going to be the cave run.  Some noticeable differences with the s/w near canada

[Amped]

The 300mb jet coming into California is a lot more amped at 36hrs. Dont know what impact that will have

[Interstate]

yeah it is a little flatter on the H5 at 39

[jewell2188]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Umm ok.. thanks for the scoop!

Hey, its your hard earned money that you work for. glad you think it’s funny lol the amount of money wasted on snow removal just in Northern Virginia alone will blow your mind.

[stormtracker]

I mean, I dunno honestly.  I'm buzzing...but sfc seems fine so far...slightly a bit flatter out front

[bncho]

NS more like the NAM

[wxmeddler]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is likely going to be the cave run.  Some noticeable differences with the s/w near canada

Looks like the NAM more than anything else, the Alberta s/w is hanging back.

[Interstate]

I do not know if I am excited or not at 51 on the H5... I see some good and some bad

[TSSN+]

Probably won’t be as good, but cave? Idk 

[stormtracker]

H5 is definitely a bit different than 18z...more NAM like, SFC seems ok so far

[NorthArlington101]

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

Hey, its your hard earned money that you work for. glad you think it’s funny lol the amount of money wasted on snow removal just in Northern Virginia alone will blow your mind.

Glad you think a bunch of weather weenies on a message board affect that. Now go away or take it to banter - this is a storm thread.

[stormtracker]

Decent snow at 63.  Lets see what the following panels bring

[Cobalt]

AI GFS is a slight improvement compared to 18z. 0.7" QPF at DCA, more to the Southeast. 

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

The reaching is mind blowing in here and it’s mind blowing…..the bust potential is far more significant than the opposite. But don’t worry, your local Vdot/mdot and whatever the hell DCcalls them selves are preparing for epic snow and end of the world stuff…ask me how I know….waste tax payer dollars at its finest!!!!!

Wait so you mean one or more of the models might not be right?  Get outta here.