Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[wasnow215]

51 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Have you seen how it performed this winter? Has had no systems correctly model outside 48hrs 

It started last year especially. Every time it showed something it would end up mirroring the European model even when the European model would go back-and-forth... it always took about two cycles but it would always end up mirroring it. It's just terrible the GFS -nobody can convince me otherwise at this point. And yes I do think the Canadian model is better at this point and the Ukie

[WeatherGeek2025]

reggie?

[baltosquid]

Don’t think the RGEM is gonna do it seeing it at hr60 as it is a bit flatter. Stronger trailing wave but I don’t think it will have room. Would love to be wrong!

[Wetbulbs88]

What I don't understand is why actual pros push maps to the public based strictly on the GFS. It makes zero sense. 

Until you think about the fact that they are just yellow journalists at this point. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Don’t think the RGEM is gonna do it seeing it at hr60 as it is a bit flatter. Stronger trailing wave but I don’t think it will have room. Would love to be wrong!

It's a lot worse than 0z and 6z thru 66

[mitchnick]

By 78hrs, Rgem has come to life. Too early to say if the last minute save works. 

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

reggie?

Who dat?

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

What I don't understand is why actual pros push maps to the public based strictly on the GFS. It makes zero sense. 

Until you think about the fact that they are just yellow journalists at this point. 

                                               Clickbait!

[TSSN+]

Ready for gfs fold here shortly lol

[mitchnick]

Rgem loses the slp out to sea ultimately but may generate some snow post 84hrs from the u/l low

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem loses the slp out to sea ultimately but may generate some snow post 84hrs from the u/l low

Looks hot! 
 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ready for gfs fold here shortly lol

It will always have Jan 3rd 2022. And last year's Feb storm. And Snowquester I think? Gee, what a run the gfs has been on this past decade and a half. 

[Duca892]

Yeaaaa GFS gonna cave at some point today. Not going to shock me at all if that happens in the next 30mins

[baltosquid]

Just can’t get the thing to tilt in time. Verbatim a little stronger at h5 but it’s just not wrapping up. Need a cleaner look. Which we probably won’t get.

[Cobalt]

Apples and bowling balls compared to the GFS but the ICON is slightly improved from its (disastrous) 6z iteration. Probably just translates to more IVT love. 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Apples and bowling balls compared to the GFS but the ICON is slightly improved from its (disastrous) 6z iteration. Probably just translates to more IVT love. 

Yeah it has a better h5 pass but still all IVT over a narrow strip. A bit NW in low placement.

[baltosquid]

lol RRFS A was better. Doesn’t mean much.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RRFS

[Solution Man]

Ok @stormtracker takes us somewhere 

[TSSN+]

I’ll laugh if the gfs moves west again. 

[dailylurker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

I’ll laugh if the gfs moves west again. 

You know its going to double down. Or it will switch places with the Euro lol

[baltosquid]

Just now, dailylurker said:

You know its going to double down. Or it will switch places with the Euro lol

It was extremely stubborn with the snowcrete storm. Every run we’d say surely, now it will cave… took a while and instead was a slow bleed.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

By 78hrs, Rgem has come to life. Too early to say if the last minute save works. 

For Bermuda?  That thing is WAY easy 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z ICON at least has an intense coastal but about 200 miles east.

[bncho]

Why do I feel like the GFS is better? Higher heights out front and it looks like the wave is more amped? (I'm not looking at h5 though)

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Why do I feel like the GFS is better? Higher heights out front and it looks like the wave is more amped? (I'm not looking at h5 though)

Because it is

[Interstate]

Heights are lower out in front but I think it might be offset by the SW 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z RRFS

It’s crap. Most of that snow is light and associated with the mid level instability. Look at the stuff to our south here. That’s the stuff that was back over KY when we were excited. That’s what will become the developing wave. Everything NW of that is just instability or INV trough related.   

[Cobalt]

The AI GFS is an improvement from 6z. Could tell pretty early on with substantially higher heights out in front. 

 

Still running but looks like 0.7"+ for DC and points SE. Doubled from previous run. 

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Why do I feel like the GFS is better? Higher heights out front and it looks like the wave is more amped? (I'm not looking at h5 though)

Heights don’t look higher to me but the wave is deeper I think.