Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[TSSN+]

I wish the gfs wasn’t a garbage model lately, I’d be way more excited. Hopefully it is correct for once but… 

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I wish the gfs wasn’t a garbage model lately, I’d be way more excited. Hopefully it is correct for once but… 

Agree. We’ve been Charlie Brown with this football waaaaayyyy too many times. Still, 6z is what model watching is all about.  Simply stunning blizzard.

[mitchnick]

6z GGEM

[Duca892]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z GGEM

Assuming extrapolated out it would of been crapola?

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS ensemble low positions/strength compared to GFS low position for 10pm Sunday.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

Assuming extrapolated out it would of been crapola?

I doubt it would have as good as the Gfs because it's warmer, but it still should deepen pretty good imho. H5 actually looks better than Gfs. Compare it to Gfs.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Assuming extrapolated out it would of been crapola?

Thats pretty much what it looked like at that point on the previous run. Its beyond that where the action happens.

[mappy]

Gfs is lol. 2.35” qpf up here for the event 

[Weather Will]

WB GEFS 50th and 90 percentile total snowfall.

[mitchnick]

Then there's the Icon. See any resemblance? Better not be right.

[Quasievil]

Honestly, snapshot this moment. It’s perfectly indicative of how bad the models have been this winter, especially in the mid range. How can you base any forecast off of anything right now?

[Duca892]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Then there's the Icon. See any resemblance? Better not be right.

I do not understand how in 2026 things are like this..

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI about the same as 0Z.

[Ji]

Ai is going to be east

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Ai is going to be east

Still has the inverted trough. I'd guess operational will have it again too. 

[Ji]

Yea this storm is on life support and gfs will be retired soon

No good trends from the other models

[Ji]

The euro looks better at h5 than 00z

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yea this storm is ours and gfs will be the King soon

All models will trend to the GFS

Fixed

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The euro looks better at h5 than 00z

At 69hrs, slp is further west on the NC coast than 0z fwiw.

[Weather Will]

AI appears to be locking in on a 1-3 inch event in the western burbs, 2-4 west of '95, and generally 3-6 north and east of DC with localized amounts near 10 closer to the shore.

edit:  with marginal surface temps probably have to  cut this in half.

[Quasievil]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yea this storm is on life support and gfs will be retired soon

No good trends from the other models

CMC still has it tucked off the Chesapeake too. There’s little chance it’s going to happen like this but not sure I’m total Debbie Downer about it.

[Ji]

At 69hrs, slp is further west on the NC coast than 0z fwiw.

Still a pos but it did trend better

[mitchnick]

And at 81hrs, it's worse than 0z surface. Lol

[TSSN+]

You guys analysis on here sometimes is awful. One person…it’s better, another it’s worse. How about let the run play out 

[Weather Will]

Pretty ridiculous 4 day difference between EURO and GFS both in position and strength.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Pretty ridiculous 3 day difference between EURO and GFS.

I mean we all know the gfs is worthless. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro has sprinkles, gfs has a blizzard, ai light to moderate event. Hmmmm

[TSSN+]

Toss the gfs op and use the ai version and it’s closer to what the euro and rest now show. 
 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro has sprinkles, gfs has a blizzard, ai light to moderate event. Hmmmm

Now is when you ask the question, what fits the season? Or maybe you really don't want to ask that question.  Lol

[LP08]

Clicking through the Ai, it’s awfully warm along 95 during the “snow”.  Starts at 35-36 and drops to 33 during the best of it towards the end.  I’d be cautious with that as well