TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I wish the gfs wasn’t a garbage model lately, I’d be way more excited. Hopefully it is correct for once but… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I wish the gfs wasn’t a garbage model lately, I’d be way more excited. Hopefully it is correct for once but… Agree. We’ve been Charlie Brown with this football waaaaayyyy too many times. Still, 6z is what model watching is all about. Simply stunning blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6z GGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z GGEM Assuming extrapolated out it would of been crapola? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 WB 6Z GEFS ensemble low positions/strength compared to GFS low position for 10pm Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Duca892 said: Assuming extrapolated out it would of been crapola? I doubt it would have as good as the Gfs because it's warmer, but it still should deepen pretty good imho. H5 actually looks better than Gfs. Compare it to Gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Assuming extrapolated out it would of been crapola? Thats pretty much what it looked like at that point on the previous run. Its beyond that where the action happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Gfs is lol. 2.35” qpf up here for the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 WB GEFS 50th and 90 percentile total snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Then there's the Icon. See any resemblance? Better not be right. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Honestly, snapshot this moment. It’s perfectly indicative of how bad the models have been this winter, especially in the mid range. How can you base any forecast off of anything right now? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Then there's the Icon. See any resemblance? Better not be right. I do not understand how in 2026 things are like this.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 WB 6Z EURO AI about the same as 0Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Ai is going to be east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Ji said: Ai is going to be east Still has the inverted trough. I'd guess operational will have it again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Yea this storm is on life support and gfs will be retired soonNo good trends from the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The euro looks better at h5 than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Yea this storm is ours and gfs will be the King soon All models will trend to the GFS Fixed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Ji said: The euro looks better at h5 than 00z At 69hrs, slp is further west on the NC coast than 0z fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 AI appears to be locking in on a 1-3 inch event in the western burbs, 2-4 west of '95, and generally 3-6 north and east of DC with localized amounts near 10 closer to the shore. edit: with marginal surface temps probably have to cut this in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Yea this storm is on life support and gfs will be retired soon No good trends from the other models CMC still has it tucked off the Chesapeake too. There’s little chance it’s going to happen like this but not sure I’m total Debbie Downer about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 At 69hrs, slp is further west on the NC coast than 0z fwiw.Still a pos but it did trend better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 And at 81hrs, it's worse than 0z surface. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 You guys analysis on here sometimes is awful. One person…it’s better, another it’s worse. How about let the run play out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Pretty ridiculous 4 day difference between EURO and GFS both in position and strength. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Weather Will said: Pretty ridiculous 3 day difference between EURO and GFS. I mean we all know the gfs is worthless. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Euro has sprinkles, gfs has a blizzard, ai light to moderate event. Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Toss the gfs op and use the ai version and it’s closer to what the euro and rest now show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Euro has sprinkles, gfs has a blizzard, ai light to moderate event. Hmmmm Now is when you ask the question, what fits the season? Or maybe you really don't want to ask that question. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Clicking through the Ai, it’s awfully warm along 95 during the “snow”. Starts at 35-36 and drops to 33 during the best of it towards the end. I’d be cautious with that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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