Spring 2026 Banter Thread

[Chicago Storm]

Gonna help Doc out, he’s stuck in 2025.

[frostfern]

First time seeing thunderheads on the horizon this year.  Nice little cell S of Lansing.

[DocATL]

Gonna help Doc out, he’s stuck in 2025.

lol! Someone posted before me today and it screwed me up. Anyhow let’s goooo spring!!


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[Chinook]

why does Toledo average 1-2 degrees warmer than Fort Wayne when it is more north? The difference is shown to be 1 degree in October and 1.5 degree in July. I think it's bad data.

 

 

 

[Harry Perry]

23 hours ago, Chinook said:

why does Toledo average 1-2 degrees warmer than Fort Wayne when it is more north? The difference is shown to be 1 degree in October and 1.5 degree in July. I think it's bad data.

 

 

 

Interesting find. 
 

It’s not accounting for urban heating is it? Not sure where the ASOS station is located. Seems like it’s either that or the lake somehow affects it positively. 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Interesting find. 
 

It’s not accounting for urban heating is it? Not sure where the ASOS station is located. Seems like it’s either that or the lake somehow affects it positively. 

TOL is located about 20 miles SW of actual Toledo in Swanton, OH.

[IWXwx]

16 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Interesting find. 
 

It’s not accounting for urban heating is it? Not sure where the ASOS station is located. Seems like it’s either that or the lake somehow affects it positively. 

FWA is surrounded on three sides by farmland.

[A-L-E-K]

time to bring back the great black swamp imo

[DocATL]

Can’t wait for things to green up.


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[Brian D]

March 1

1966: The Blizzard of '66 hits Minnesota and lasts 4 days. Aitkin received 23 inches of snow. The snow depth at International Falls reached a record 37 inches by the end of the storm.

For Sunday, March 1, 2026
1910 - The deadliest avalanche of record in the U.S. thundered down the mountains near Wellington Station WA sweeping three huge locomotive train engines and some passenger cars, snowbound on the grade leading to Stevens Pass, over the side and into a canyon, and burying them under tons of snow. The avalanche claimed the lives of more than 100 people. The station house at Wellington was also swept away. (The Weather Channel)
1914 - High winds and heavy snow crippled New Jersey and New York State. Two feet of snow were reported at Ashbury Park, and at New York City the barometric pressure dropped to a record 28.38 inches. The storm caused complete disruption of electric power in New Jersey. (David Ludlum)
1980 - Norfolk, VA, received 13.7 inches of snow to push their season total to a record 41.9 inches exceeding their previous record by more than four inches. (David Ludlum)
1980 - An unusually large Florida tornado, 500 yards in width at times, killed one person and caused six million dollars damage near Fort Lauderdale. (The Weather Channel)
1983 - A ferocious storm battered the Pacific coast. The storm produced heavy rain and gale force winds resulting in flooding and beach erosion, and in the mountains produced up to seven feet of snow in five days. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - A storm crossing the Great Lakes Region produced heavy snow and gale force winds from Wisconsin to northern New England, with eight inches of snow reported at Ironwood MI. (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in north central Texas. Baseball size hail was reported at Lake Kickapoo. Hail fell continuously for thirty minutes in the Iowa Park area of Wichita Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - March came in like a lion, with snow and high winds, in the northwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 86 mph in the Rosario Strait of western Washington State. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990 - A series of low pressure systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska spread high winds and heavy snow across western Alaska. Winds in the Anchorage area gusted to 69 mph at Glen Alps, and Talkeetna was buried under three feet of snow in two days. Valdez received 21.4 inches of snow, raising their total for the winter season to 482.4 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
2006 - Dallas/Forth Worth Airport breaks a 107-year-old North Texas temperature record after reaching 93 degrees. Mineral Wells reached 97, Wichita Falls 96 and Fort Worth Meacham Airport 90.
2011 - Snowfall across Idaho broke numerous accumulation records. Pierce received 15 inches, Powell 14.5 inches, Potlatch 12 inches and Kellogg and Plummer 7 inches. The same storm created high winds across the Pacific Northwest. A weather station at 10,000 feet on Mount Rainier measures a wind gust of 137 MPH with a sustained 1-minute wind reading of 112 MPH.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I’ve been seeing trumpeter swans for a week. The robins must have gotten the memo it’s now Metrological spring because I saw close to a dozen this morning. The ground is still frozen and somewhat snow covered.

[Brian D]

March 2

1913: A record low of 24 degrees below zero is set at the St. Cloud Regional Airport.

For Monday, March 2, 2026
1846 - A great storm hit Virginia and the Carolinas. The storm caused half a million dollars damage, and in North Carolina drowned fifty families and a thousand cattle on Notts Island. (David Ludlum)
1927 - Raleigh, NC, was buried under 17.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. Nashville NC received 31 inches of snow. The average snow depth in the state of Carolina was fourteen inches. (The Weather Channel)
1975 - The governor's Tornado in Atlanta did considerable damage to the governor's mansion and surrounding areas resulting in three deaths and 56.5 million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)
1985 - A massive winter storm struck the Northern Plains Region. The storm produced up to 33 inches of snow in northeastern South Dakota, at Summit and at Milbank, and also produced high winds which whipped the heavy snow into drifts twenty feet high. (Storm Data)
1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in Maine, with 16 inches reported at West Grand Lake and Guilford. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. A tornado at Baton Rouge LA injured two persons, and another tornado caused five million dollars damage at the airport in Lafayette LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Snow and high winds plagued the western U.S. Up to 16 inches of snow was reported south of Seattle WA, and more than two feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Winds gusted to 89 mph at Hidden Peak UT, and reached 92 mph at Peavine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990 - Mild weather continued across the northern tier of states. Highs of 52 degrees at Saint Johnsbury VT, 63 degrees at Olympia WA, and 64 degrees at Seattle WA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

[cyclone77]

Tomorrow starts the new SPC outlooks. Hopefully Broyles kicks it off. He's been doing the longer range ones lately. 

[A-L-E-K]

[TheClimateChanger]

On 2/21/2026 at 4:45 PM, Chinook said:

why does Toledo average 1-2 degrees warmer than Fort Wayne when it is more north? The difference is shown to be 1 degree in October and 1.5 degree in July. I think it's bad data.

 

 

 

Sorry a little old, I just wanted to point out that this is only related to the computation of the "normals" from the two sites. Toledo actually averaged 0.3°F cooler than Fort Wayne for the 1991-2020 timeframe. The normals in Toledo add about 1.5°F or so to this actual mean. Not sure if NOAA/NWS was piloting some sort of new calculation of normals that would incorporate a warming climate or what the case may be. My alternative guess would be Toledo was running a little hot beginning around July 2019 and continuing through the end of 2020 - looks like a sensor error, as it suddenly started running about 1.5F warmer than Fort Wayne. That's no longer the case, but whatever algorithm they use to create the normals may have interpreted that as a real step change up and added into the calculated normals. Which is annoying now that the temperature sensor is long since running normal again, as it has led to more negative anomalies than most surrounding sites [as in the examples you post above]. Obviously, not related to rural siting as Toledo Express is in a very rural location well outside the city.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Sorry a little old, I just wanted to point out that this is only related to the computation of the "normals" from the two sites. Toledo actually averaged 0.3°F cooler than Fort Wayne for the 1991-2020 timeframe. The normals in Toledo add about 1.5°F or so to this actual mean. Not sure if NOAA/NWS was piloting some sort of new calculation of normals that would incorporate a warming climate or what the case may be. My alternative guess would be Toledo was running a little hot beginning around July 2019 and continuing through the end of 2020 - looks like a sensor error, as it suddenly started running about 1.5F warmer than Fort Wayne. That's no longer the case, but whatever algorithm they use to create the normals may have interpreted that as a real step change up and added into the calculated normals. Which is annoying now that the temperature sensor is long since running normal again, as it has led to more negative anomalies than most surrounding sites [as in the examples you post above]. Obviously, not related to rural siting as Toledo Express is in a very rural location well outside the city.

 

I think most people assume the normals are simply smoothed averages, but they actually use statistical techniques like pairwise homogenization that are supposed to correct for biases, but unfortunately can introduce biases if bad data is being incorporated at the time the normals are being calculated.

[Chinook]

I recently looked at the SREF on the SPC web site, like last week or something. There is a big thing that said the SREF will be discontinued later in 2026. After posting this on a different weather discussion forum, I've been informed that the NAM is going to be discontinued at some time. Here is a statement released in 2025.

Quote

Subject: Soliciting Comments on Proposed Discontinuation of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and other Regional Modeling Systems to be Replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) through July 26, 2025.

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is working towards replacing the North
American Mesoscale (NAM) model, the High Resolution Window (HiresW) aside from the Guam domain, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) and the North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) systems with the implementation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in early 2026.

The NWS is seeking comments on this proposed change through July 26, 2025.

This transition to RRFS would provide an hourly updating modeling system over a North America region at 3 km horizontal grid spacing, which, combined with the model retirements, would greatly unify and simplify the “convective scale” (approximately 3 km grid spacing) regional models within the NWS operational modeling suite.

As a deterministic system running to 84 h, the RRFS would fully retire the NAM, and nearly fully retire the HiresW (aside from the Guam domain). As an ensemble forecast system, the RRFS Ensemble Forecast System (REFS) would fully retire the HREF and NARRE systems

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-41_RRFS_legacy_model_cessation.pdf

 

 

other information from 2025

Quote

Retirement of the NAM and associated MOS products is possible in March 2026. Going forward, it is recommended that users of NAM MOS transition to MOS that is based on the Global Forecast System (GFS MOS) or to the National Blend of Models (NBM) text products as substitutes.

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-73_Proposed_Termination_NAM_MOS.pdf

 

I thought the NAM would keep going forever, as it has been known as the premiere mesoscale model for the USA. I was thinking that it feeds the 3-km NAM with boundary data and/or some other important data. Apparently not. I'm a little confused as to what convection-allowing model(s), other than the NAM, might disappear and appear in the PivotalWeather and other web sites. A little piece of me says, yeah when the GFS says of 500 J/kg of CAPE at the location of the next big severe weather outbreak, then you turn to a model that will actually calculate the CAPE. (Am I crazy?)