EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I thought the NWS leans on the NBM for their forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: ps the drifts yeah with 16 inches could equal 2- 3 foot drifts which will be shoveling for a week - still have a small pile of ice to remove today from 27 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I posted this late last night and not sure i am navigating the CIPS analog website correctly but this is what i was able to find - fwiw if anything: Individual Analogs 1. 20200306/18002. 19800207/06003. 20180307/18004. 20230314/00005. 20130325/18006. 20150127/00007. 20180313/00008. 20140326/00009. 19830116/000010. 20010305/180011. 20060212/120012. 19840329/120013. 20130306/180014. 20110127/000015. 19870126/1200 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/2025183767418040518?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 09z SREF Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 10:1 Snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I thought the NWS leans on the NBM for their forecast only when it makes them look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/2025183767418040518?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw I saw this before so Bernies locked in, he was playing it very conservative at the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 12z Summary Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 1/8 / 17.1 NAM: 2.5 / 24.1 NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.4 / 13.9 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1 GFS: 2.0 / 20.3 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8 GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7 GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8 UKMET: 1/2 / 12.9 Euro : 1.0 / 10.2 Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: I posted this late last night and not sure i am navigating the CIPS analog website correctly but this is what i was able to find - fwiw if anything: Individual Analogs 1. 20200306/18002. 19800207/06003. 20180307/18004. 20230314/00005. 20130325/18006. 20150127/00007. 20180313/00008. 20140326/00009. 19830116/000010. 20010305/180011. 20060212/120012. 19840329/120013. 20130306/180014. 20110127/000015. 19870126/1200 where is the January 1996 storm ? Had 0ver 30 inches here but I was in Northern Ocean County at the time and only had 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Quote .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area. A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h, tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday morning. This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter, will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday. Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time. Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area, highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS, and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the higher totals are not out of the realm possibility. Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end from west to east during the afternoon hours. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both. Agree but praying this one turns out different for me. I got like 7” and 15 miles east had over 20”. Could be similar lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both. If its modeling holds for this storm the GFS will get an A+ for it - it wants to retire a winner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, nycsnow said: Like the look of this. Will get the nuclear totals solidly into NWNJ. Almost go time. 12Z Mesos will start really zoning in on this one way or the other. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Start time guesstimate anyone ? 8 am ?????? and when does she get cranking is it in the afternoon or at night ? I think if you're north of 195 it's snizzly for a bit. Non accumulating snow until early afternoon, cranks as it gets dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This will be the longest stretch of solid snow cover over 1 inch that I can remember in my area. Minus where winds blew snow to nearly the grass... wow and not hitting 40 since jan 22... wonder how long can keep this record going!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1-1.75 QPF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Monty said: I think if you're north of 195 it's snizzly for a bit. Non accumulating snow until early afternoon, cranks as it gets dark. north of I-95 ?? please explain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said: @donsutherland1 Good morning, the late-"Icehater," a great poster on the old NYC Metro forum wrote that the temperature during the "Lindsey Storm" of February, 1969 hovered around 34 F and never went below freezing. Would you have temperature data for that storm for CPK or other points? FD The low temperatures were: EWR: 24 ISP: 27 JFK: 26 LGA: 26 NYC: 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just saw this on Facebook and I'm not going lie I really like the spread Maybe a little more in jersey area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 However unlikely this may be. If any of those insane western sref members were ever to actually take place. I'll see you all after we rebuild all infrastructure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, NEG NAO said: north of I-95 ?? please explain 195 is like exit 100 on the parkway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Are models in agreement on start time? I thought the 0z nam was aggressive in getting snow going tomorrow morning. Have modeld backed off on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: 195 is like exit 100 on the parkway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: 195 is like exit 100 on the parkway yes in southern Monmouth County - know it well lived in Northern Ocean and traveled to work in Farmingdale NJ for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: 195 is like exit 100 on the parkway 98. 100 is SR-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GFS warmest at 15z (10:00 Sunday morning) lowest (29) at 12z Mon / 7AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: north of I-95 ?? please explain That's a 1 not an I. I think intensity is light enough for the NYC metro that not much accumulates until mid afternoon. There's not much forcing away from the sfc low until all the energy gets into the trof and it detonates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: 195 is like exit 100 on the parkway Pretty much. It's exit 98. I used to live in Toms River, NJ (moved this year) and hated how it didn't snow there for the past 3 to 5 years except once. Wish I could go there one more time as it much jackpot for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Mr. T. said: Pretty much. It's exit 98. I used to live in Toms River, NJ and hated how it didn't snow there for the past 3 to 5 years except once. Wish I could go there one more time as it much jackpot for this storm. i knew it was either one of those...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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