Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Not as disgustingly bad as the OP run. But still. Not what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 17 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: The Euro is why forecasters are hedging That a huge difference from gfs Euro has been terrible this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: Not as disgustingly bad as the OP run. But still. Not what you want to see. I mean its a huge outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I don't envy the position of the NWS. Very interested to see what they do. Euro is clearly an eastern outlier but I don't seem them throwing out the euro suite in the same way that they would if it was the GFS depicting this solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 48 minutes ago, Prue11 said: I guess everyone is butt hurt now that the euro didn’t show the solution they want Damn right we are. Ugh....now I'm not going to sleep well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 45 minutes ago, David-LI said: lol not really are you? I actually want spring. My kids are bored out of their minds so am I. I want spring. But if we get a big snowstorm that would be amazing too. Edit: A big snowstorm is cool, but spring is better. I would rather prefer that Snowstorms are better then spring. Spring is nice....but let's not get crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: Still a significant west lean with some deep members; steady as she goes at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 22 minutes ago, TriPol said: The EURO is not what it was 6 years ago. True...and same thing with Europe too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 It's currently snowing in Port Washington...WTF??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Who's still up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, richm20 said: It's currently snowing in Port Washington...WTF??? Same here in Vernon, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Hour 18 hgts a hair higher confluence moving out a hair quicker Sorry, I'm late to this but I just saw this and it brought back some great memories seeing you and some of the older posters doing play by play. It's really nice to see you back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Yep, flurrying here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Let’s flip the script here…if all the models were showing a miss/graze and the Euro was the only one showing a snowstorm, which would you go with? The rest of the models won when this scenario happened with Juno in 2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: Who's still up? Me but that’s because im at work lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: Who's still up? Me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: Let’s flip the script here…if all the models were showing a miss/graze and the Euro was the only one showing a snowstorm, which would you go with? The rest of the models won when this scenario happened with Juno in 2015. This is a valid point. I think the problem is that we have been burnt so many times by betting against the euro. You would think that within 70 hours the euro would have a good handle on this. With that being said, euro has performed poorly lately. Regardless of final outcome, all models have performed poorly with this system. Euro has been atrocious with this, even if it ends up being correct in its current depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Me We all staying here for the 06z NAM?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, TriPol said: We all staying here for the 06z NAM?? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, njwx7 said: This is a valid point. I think the problem is that we have been burnt so many times by betting against the euro. You would think that within 70 hours the euro would have a good handle on this. With that being said, euro has performed poorly lately. Regardless of final outcome, all models have performed poorly with this system. Euro has been atrocious with this, even if it ends up being correct in its current depiction. This is a hot-hand fallacy. It refers to the tendency to believe that a person who has experienced a run of success, such as winning several games in a row, has a higher probability of continuing to win because they are “on a roll.” The classic example comes from basketball, where fans assume a player who has made several consecutive shots is more likely to make the next one. Just because the EURO has been right in the past, does not mean it will be right this time around. No, if all the other models were showing nothing and the Euro was showing a blizzard where we could up to 2 feet of snow, I would not go all in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit. I've seen the NAM overamp storms a million times, but the GFS is usually suppressed or warm. Plus the UKMET, CMC and GEM are all with the GFS and NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit. Not really icon and uk kinda back it up although not as extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit. Yes I said earlier I'd like to see some non American model support for a HECS, since we didn't get it I think it's on the table but not necessarily a likely outcome. Still think mostly everyone in the subforum gets a foot barring a major last second east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njwx7 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 03z 21z On a positive note, SREF mean has improved. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nice bump west with cmc ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Mail Man said: Euro AI never really liked this storm. It's east. This is true at all. It showed some good runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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