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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion


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Today will be the hottest day of our brief warm up with today reaching the 90's in all areas - maybe even in the higher spots like here in East Nantmeal. This will however be nowhere close to record levels with the mid to upper 90’s record heat for this date set way back in 1962 remaining safe. Tomorrow will be several degrees cooler and may not reach 90 in all areas. Rain chances will be ramping up with an approaching cold front tomorrow later in the day and will continue through Sunday. Some models are hinting at some of the most beneficial rains we have had in quite some time. We turn chillier than normal for the Memorial Day weekend with highs likely to remain in the 50's to near 60 degrees both Friday and Saturday. The area farmers and green thumbs have their fingers crossed even if it could impact some holiday plans.

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Here in the NW Philly burbs of Chester County in East Nantmeal (elev. 700 feet ASL) we have hit a high so far today of 88.0 degrees. We have still not hit 90 degrees here this year. I have been at this location for this my 23rd summer. Over those years I have only recorded a 90 degree temperature 76 times or around 3.5 times a typical summer season. To put that in persective the Philadelphia International Airport has in just the last 3 summers recorded a 90 plus reading a whopping 92 times! During the last 22 years PHL is averaging a 90+ reading 32 times a season.

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Was just getting ready to mow, and noticed some very dark clouds overhead. Then huge raindrops, then a 10 minute downpour with some strong winds. Rain has let up for now, and starting to hear some thunder. This was not part of the program today, lol. Can't remember the last time we got a thundershower with nada in the forecast. Received 0.24" of rain. Currently 83°F, was 88 before the rain.

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Just now, KamuSnow said:

Was just getting ready to mow, and noticed some very dark clouds overhead. Then huge raindrops, then a 10 minute downpour with some strong winds. Rain has let up for now, and starting to hear some thunder. This was not part of the program today, lol. Can't remember the last time we got a thundershower with nada in the forecast. Received 0.24" of rain. Currently 83°F, was 88 before the rain.

Several CAMs had this modeled overnight, surprised mt holly didn’t throw 20% pops to cta. 

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Several CAMs had this modeled overnight, surprised mt holly didn’t throw 20% pops to cta. 

I just read the forecast discussion and in the last couple of editions there is mention of a slight chance, but nothing in the local forecast which is all I looked at today. I mean we need the rain, so no complaints here, but mowing is up in the air for a few days it looks like.

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2 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

Was just getting ready to mow, and noticed some very dark clouds overhead. Then huge raindrops, then a 10 minute downpour with some strong winds. Rain has let up for now, and starting to hear some thunder. This was not part of the program today, lol. Can't remember the last time we got a thundershower with nada in the forecast. Received 0.24" of rain. Currently 83°F, was 88 before the rain.

I was watching that line (literal west to east) run across your area.  Figured you might cash in.  There were scattered cells that went north of me but my lightning detector didn't miss that trick. :lol:  Am hoping the diffused blob moving up from the southwest will give me enough to wet the leaves.

High today IMBY ended up being 95 and it's currently 82 with dp 65.

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Who is ready for some weather whiplash? After one more unseasonably warm day today we flip to unseasonably chilly starting tomorrow and lasting through at least Sunday. Tomorrow's afternoon temperatures are likely to be more than 30 degrees chillier than today with widespread 50's. We turn even chillier by Saturday with some models hinting at record low maximum temperatures with highs struggling to escape the cold 40's during the afternoon. Some much-needed rain looks to arrive later today and continue off and on through tomorrow. More steady rain arrives Friday night and continues through Saturday. This combination of rain and cold will make Saturday feel more like a raw early March day than Memorial Day Weekend.

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TTN and PHL record high is 94 for 5/20, KABE is 92. All 3 should have a shot at breaking it. SPC has upgraded the area to a slight risk for wind this afternoon/evening, looks like we should see several rounds of scattered storms beginning after 18z then most models are showing an area of steady rain with the front now overnight into tomorrow morning, should hopefully be a decent soaking. This weekend is also looking like a much needed washout, it's a shame though it's Memorial Day weekend. Maybe we can get Sunday mostly dry, but looking like showers/rain/cool most of the weekend

 

  ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
   On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and
   the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave
   trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central
   Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic
   tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level
   airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of
   a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate
   instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this
   morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this
   destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to
   develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central
   Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
   England.

   Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front,
   but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow
   along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer
   shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with
   mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures
   may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep
   through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent
   visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the
   Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum
   transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging
   winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward
   through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the
   stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been
   introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased
   confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead
   of the front.
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12 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I was watching that line (literal west to east) run across your area.  Figured you might cash in.  There were scattered cells that went north of me but my lightning detector didn't miss that trick. :lol:  Am hoping the diffused blob moving up from the southwest will give me enough to wet the leaves.

High today IMBY ended up being 95 and it's currently 82 with dp 65.

Well the diffused blob was so diffuse that I got nothing from it other than more humidity. :axe: 

I bottomed out at 70 this morning and it's currently 86 with a dp of 70 (which should be banned anytime before July).  I did see the upcoming forecast for rain on and off into the weekend so hopefully I get something from that (looks like an overrunning event along the cold front).

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50 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Well the diffused blob was so diffuse that I got nothing from it other than more humidity. :axe: 

I bottomed out at 70 this morning and it's currently 86 with a dp of 70 (which should be banned anytime before July).  I did see the upcoming forecast for rain on and off into the weekend so hopefully I get something from that (looks like an overrunning event along the cold front).

I didn't get much either, but it did at least wet the ground... I didn't even bother to check the gauge, probably .05" tops.

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3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I didn't get much either, but it did at least wet the ground... I didn't even bother to check the gauge, probably .05" tops.

I had nothing measurable but if it did something after I went to bed to wet the walks, it was evaporated by early this morning!

SPC in Norman is up with the Severe Thunderstorm Watches - 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC011-017-025-029-045-077-089-091-095-101-210100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0235.260520T1805Z-260521T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS                BUCKS               CARBON
CHESTER              DELAWARE            LEHIGH
MONROE               MONTGOMERY          NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA
$$

 

Heat Advisory

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-210100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0235.260520T1805Z-260521T0100Z/

NJ
.    NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATLANTIC             BERGEN              BURLINGTON
CAMDEN               CAPE MAY            CUMBERLAND
ESSEX                GLOUCESTER          HUDSON
HUNTERDON            MERCER              MIDDLESEX
MONMOUTH             MORRIS              OCEAN
PASSAIC              SALEM               SOMERSET
SUSSEX               UNION               WARREN
$$

 

Quote
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

DEC001-003-005-210100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0235.260520T1805Z-260521T0100Z/

DE
.    DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

KENT                 NEW CASTLE          SUSSEX
$$

 

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