E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion

[LVLion77]

It is not just the wind direction that is a factor. All day the flow was southerly and it still is. A very messy warm sector with low cloud cover and showers today is what tempered the severe weather risk. 
 
Powerful cold front moves through later this evening and that should be accompanied by a low-topped line. That could still tap into the strong wind field to produce areas of damaging winds. 

But the low cloud cover was the result of the easterly flow. A southerly flow is not enough to completely remove the marine influence. We have low 40’s water temps in the Atlantic. I still contend the forecasts this time of year rarely get this right.

[MGorse]

18 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

But the low cloud cover was the result of the easterly flow. A southerly flow is not enough to completely remove the marine influence. We have low 40’s water temps in the Atlantic. I still contend the forecasts this time of year rarely get this right.

Disagree with your first sentence. 

[MGorse]

Meanwhile, heavy snow falling in western PA at this time. 

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Meanwhile, heavy snow falling in western PA at this time. 

61F here, State college 37F so the cold air is on the move....

[Albedoman]

51 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Meanwhile, heavy snow falling in western PA at this time. 

Mike, I feel that many in the forum will be shocked how quickly the temps will drop by 1 am. I must admit I called for the squally moderate rain weather as the sun never showed its face. Nice downpours but brief. We need every ounce of the liquid sunshine right now. The next round in an hour or so will bring  brief but destructive downdrafts with the frontal passage. many will be discussing the straight line wind issues. However, the big talk will be the huge wet snowflakes to follow about an  hour after the frontal passage as the cold air is finally catching up to the actual front now.  I expect an inch or even more on the grass  surafces by sunrise here in the LV. 

[MGorse]

66 mph wind gust at Dulles with the narrow squall line! 

[MGorse]

20 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Mike, I feel that many in the forum will be shocked how quickly the temps will drop by 1 am. I must admit I called for the squally moderate rain weather as the sun never showed its face. Nice downpours but brief. We need every ounce of the liquid sunshine right now. The next round in an hour or so will bring  brief but destructive downdrafts with the frontal passage. many will be discussing the straight line wind issues. However, the big talk will be the huge wet snowflakes to follow about an  hour after the frontal passage as the cold air is finally catching up to the actual front now.  I expect an inch or even more on the grass  surafces by sunrise here in the LV. 

Yup, it looks like quite the temperature drop overnight. 

[Mikeymac5306]

Storm warnings hoisted at the PA/MD line. 

[Birds~69]

Pittsburgh webcam. White w/some stickage, 28F

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/pennsylvania/pittsburgh/?cam=pittsburgh

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hrrr looks squally tomorrow afternoon

[LVLion77]

I thought the cold front would have a more impressive radar representation on approach. The line is fizzling out a bit, but the snow behind it looks impressive. Hope we can cash in for an inch or two.

[Newman]

The wind right behind the low-topped line is gonna roar for some. KLNS is up to 45 mph sustained and gusting to 60 mph. Brother in Lancaster just lost power

[CoolHandMike]

Why am I being warned (weather radio and texts) for severe thunderstorms when there is literally no lightning? It's a squall line. Warn for that, if anything. It's been a weird weather day with the warnings. Are they all relying on AI too much or something? It's giving my mother fits.

[MGorse]

1 minute ago, CoolHandMike said:

Why am I being warned (weather radio and texts) for severe thunderstorms when there is literally no lightning? It's a squall line. Warn for that, if anything. It's been a weird weather day with the warnings. Are they all relying on AI too much or something? It's giving my mother fits.

It is convective (low-topped in this case) with severe wind gusts thus handled with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. 

[MGorse]

68 mph gust at the Reading airport! 
 

SPECI KRDG 170213Z 29041G59KT 1 1/2SM R36/4000VP6000FT +RA FEW021 BKN027 OVC035 09/06 A2927 RMK AO2 PK WND 28059/0211 WSHFT 0159 RAB08 PRESRR P0007 T00890061

[CoolHandMike]

8 minutes ago, MGorse said:

It is convective (low-topped in this case) with severe wind gusts thus handled with Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. 

Interesting. Thunderstorms means convective, while convective does not always mean thunderstorms... I get why they have to word it that way at least because we're not exactly "general public" in here lol.

Well it was an entertaining couple of minutes while it swept through at least. Power flickered but is still on.

[KamuSnow]

Looks like a pencilominous line developing. Brief but interesting maybe:

[MGorse]

Just now, CoolHandMike said:

Interesting. Thunderstorms means convective, while convective does not always mean thunderstorms... I get why they have to word it that way at least because we're not exactly "general public" in here lol.

Well it was an entertaining couple of minutes while it swept through at least. Power flickered but is still on.

Showers are convective as well. I know it seems odd having a Severe Thunderstorm Warning with no lightning, but that is the best way the NWS can handle these types of events. 

[CoolHandMike]

3 minutes ago, MGorse said:

68 mph gust at the Reading airport! 
 

SPECI KRDG 170213Z 29041G59KT 1 1/2SM R36/4000VP6000FT +RA FEW021 BKN027 OVC035 09/06 A2927 RMK AO2 PK WND 28059/0211 WSHFT 0159 RAB08 PRESRR P0007 T00890061

I really wish I could mount my little anemometer someplace away from houses. We still recorded 27mph here though, and that's something here in dense suburbia.

[LVLion77]

Why am I being warned (weather radio and texts) for severe thunderstorms when there is literally no lightning? It's a squall line. Warn for that, if anything. It's been a weird weather day with the warnings. Are they all relying on AI too much or something? It's giving my mother fits.

I have wondered about AI influence as well. Our approach to forecasting nowadays seems less local.

[MGorse]

1 minute ago, LVLion77 said:

I have wondered about AI influence as well. Our approach to forecasting nowadays seems less local.

There is no AI influence in NWS warnings. They are issued by trained Meteorologists. 

[CoolHandMike]

Our temps just dropped 20°F in ten minutes... Neat!

[Birds~69]

Pissed off severe storm weenie challenged Cecily/Ch6 just now but screwed up grammar...Cecily a little snippy on the reply.

61F/Winds picking up

 

[LVLion77]

Our temps just dropped 20°F in ten minutes... Neat!

I am at 61.3° on the edge of the front. It better be worth be staying up for this tonight as I have to get in early to work tomorrow.

[Birds~69]

Not the most intimidating line I've ever seen but it's a line...

61F

 

[CoolHandMike]

Just now, LVLion77 said:

I am at 61.3° on the edge of the front. It better be worth be staying up for this tonight as I have to get in early to work tomorrow.

It certainly was entertaining for about 5 minutes. Granted, we have a pretty robust electrical grid up where I live. However; definitely not worthy of a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning!!! Go to the inner most room in your house and take cover now!" alert. Broadcasting the wrong message, even with the right intent, does not inspire confidence. That's what made me wonder if it was AI driven or not.

[Birds~69]

Just now, CoolHandMike said:

It certainly was entertaining for about 5 minutes. Granted, we have a pretty robust electrical grid up where I live. However; definitely not worthy of a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning!!! Go to the inner most room in your house and take cover now!" alert. Broadcasting the wrong message, even with the right intent, does not inspire confidence. That's what made me wonder if it was AI driven or not.

You're down to 43F so it dropped like a rock.... 

[MGorse]

3 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

It certainly was entertaining for about 5 minutes. Granted, we have a pretty robust electrical grid up where I live. However; definitely not worthy of a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning!!! Go to the inner most room in your house and take cover now!" alert. Broadcasting the wrong message, even with the right intent, does not inspire confidence. That's what made me wonder if it was AI driven or not.

Wrong message? This line has produced wind gusts to 68 mph. 
 

No AI. OMG! 

[LVLion77]

Went down 15 degrees in 5 minutes here and still dropping. It was a good gust front with brief heavy rain.

[LVLion77]

Wrong message? This line has produced wind gusts to 68 mph. 
 
No AI. OMG! 

I can appreciate you’re in a tough spot. You’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t. My fear is that after today the public doesn’t take the next watch seriously and life-threatening severe weather does happen. The message tomorrow in every break room and social media feed is laughing that nothing happened.