2026-2027 Super El Nino

[TriPol]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer. 
 

 

Just a feeling, but I think the EURO is underdoing Nino 3.4. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

You have never produced a single thing by yourself. You consistently post others thoughts from twitter and say yep this is what I think will happen as if what they are saying is exactly as you would say and will happen. I question it because it literally looks like someone else took the time to actually make this and you just copied it, then you also simultaneously demean so many others around you who have differing opinions and actually put in the effort to create their own thoughts (whether right or wrong) and images to show an idea.

Then you go on a tantrum because someone doesn't believe you cursing and acting like a kid. You simply could have just said nope sorry I created this but thanks anyway. You really have a lot of growing up to do. Best of luck with that hope you find peace. Still don't believe you made it and simply do not care.

He needs to go outside and touch grass, in the real world if he told say his coworkers, friends family etc that there’s an incoming historic super Nino and it would lead to a mild winter in the east, most people are gonna respond to that with a “fuck yeah I’m not gonna have to shovel as much”…. I’m not happy about it because I ski, but in my experience most people prefer warm with less snow. I mean hes right that there is a historic super Nino coming, but a mind that ruminates about everyone who disagrees with you is not a mind optimized for efficiency. Let those people who think there won’t be a super Nino be confidently wrong… It’s a waste of time to try to convince some rando idiots on twitter and even care about what they think. Some people are going to be delusional and wishcast, we don’t do that on this subforum, he should grow up and just get over it and not give people he doesn’t like the time of day. They will continue to do what they do no matter what he says or what tantrum Adam throws, and Adam is going to do what he does. It is what it is. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

He needs to go outside and touch grass, in the real world if he told say his coworkers, friends family etc that there’s an incoming historic super Nino and it would lead to a mild winter in the east, most people are gonna respond to that with a “fuck yeah I’m not gonna have to shovel as much”…. I’m not happy about it because I ski, but in my experience most people prefer warm with less snow. I mean hes right that there is a historic super Nino coming, but a mind that ruminates about everyone who disagrees with you is not a mind optimized for efficiency. It’s a waste of time. Some people are going to be delusional and wishcast, we don’t do that on this subforum, he should grow up and just get over it and not give people he doesn’t like the time of day. They will continue to do what they do no matter what he says or what tantrum Adam throws, and Adam is going to do what he does. It is what it is. 

Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch. 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Just a feeling, but I think the EURO is underdoing Nino 3.4. 

It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing the warm  pool and push it further east. The next one coming up will also break records. 
 

 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing and pushing the record warm pool further east. The next one coming up will also break records. 
 

 

We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch. 

Yeah what makes it interesting is the magnitude of this event, we have had super ninos before but previous ones have peaked around +2.5C, some of the latest guidance has this one in the +3.5C to even +4C range, which is significantly stronger than even previous super ninos. We have been tracking the more aggressive end of guidance too, on the dallies Ninos 3.4 is already at around +2.5C, Nino 3 +3C, and Nino 1.2 +4C.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Agree, but sadly some will never keep an open mind, admit error, and stop attacking those with alternate viewpoints.

You just described 75% of social media.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is

I gave that up in March.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.

Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era. 
 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era. 

What a time to be alive. And if this leads to a historic, record breaking Super La Nina, I'm even more all in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

Nino Getting a lower end super El and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era. 

Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".

[LakePaste25]

I get the reluctance for some to take a “wait and see” approach to see if the NH actually couples. But at the same time, just make a call. I think it’ll couple, and couple well. Sure, we can count on a less expansive area of below normal anomalies than the 1983 Aleutian Low due to warming. It is what it is. But otherwise it’ll couple in the NH and if i’m wrong i’m wrong. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I get the reluctance for some to take a “wait and see” approach to see if the NH actually couples. But at the same time, just make a call. I think it’ll couple, and couple well. Sure, we can count on a less expansive area of below normal anomalies than the 1983 Aleutian Low due to warming. It is what it is. But otherwise it’ll couple in the NH and if i’m wrong i’m wrong. 

I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking through that door.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What a time to be alive. And if this leads to a historic, record breaking Super La Nina, I'm even more all in.

The overall SST pattern and forecast SST pattern looks different from 1997-1998.

That event had a much stronger cold pool in the WPAC into Nino 4 and 3.4 regions during the same time in 1998 than the current forecasts for early into mid 2027.

Plus the La Ninas following 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weren’t particularly strong. But we’ll see how things go since it’s still early in the process.

[LakePaste25]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking threw that door.

My thing is, if the most record breaking El Niño of my life (and potentially by a huge margin) doesn’t do the job, then the climate system has been messed up to the point where we’ve lost a major predictability factor in ENSO. It’s possible. But I hope not. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

My thing is, if the most record breaking El Niño of my life (and potentially by a huge margin) doesn’t do the job, then the climate system has been messed up to the point where we’ve lost a major predictability factor in ENSO. It’s possible. But I hope not. 

Yes, we will learn a lot this year...the earth wants ENSO to couple with the mid latitudes because it's that coupling that represents the most proficient avenue for the redistribution of all of that heat...this unprecedented ENSO is the planet's best attempt at bridging that gap in the face of mounting anthropogenic resistance. 

The only entity that desires the eradication of the west warm pool more than east coast snow enthusiasts is mother nature.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".

Yeah I was initially thinking “We just had a super Nino 3 years ago, it won’t happen again”…. But then I looked at the subsurface and saw it was near +2 in early spring. 2023-2024 was kind of a weird year, I initially thought warm and snowless because the Nino was too strong, but then looking back this year when I was digging though previous super ninos to prepare for this winter, I realized I was kind of right by luck, and missed the bigger picture. Bluewave had a really good handle on what was going on that year, he basically argued we would see both Nino and Nina like influences that would combine to produce an especially shitty winter in the east, and ended up nailing it. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".

The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at.

The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new.

Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past. 

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is

I gave that up in March.

I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. 

I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really.

I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah I was initially thinking “We just had a super Nino 3 years ago, it won’t happen again”…. But then I looked at the subsurface and saw it was near +2 in early spring. 2023-2024 was kind of a weird year, I initially thought warm and snowless because the Nino was too strong, but then looking back this year when I was digging though previous super ninos to prepare for this winter, I realized I was kind of right by luck, and missed the bigger picture. Bluewave had a really good handle on what was going on that year, he basically argued we would see both Nino and Nina like influences that would combine to produce an especially shitty winter in the east, and ended up nailing it. 

I keep circling back to the PMM. 2023-24 was a rare -PMM El Niño. Right now it’s positive.

In the summer, -PMM constructively interferes with El Nino, while it destructively interferes during the winter. +PMM is the opposite (Nina like summer, but Nino like winter). Unfortunately we don’t have current PMM values but eyeballing SSTAs show it in the positive state, which implies more Nino-friendly interference as we head towards winter. 

 

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, TriPol said:

We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.

Yes, living humans haven't seen this (I'm sure dead ones have though at some point) and I'm sure 99.99% wouldn't even know it is happening since pretty much nothing in their life is going to change over the next 10 months because of it. Many alive today will have lived through the stongest La Nina and El Nino ever, and not even know. Pretty funny really when you think about it. 

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at.

The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new.

Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past. 

I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year. 

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yes, living humans haven't seen this (I'm sure dead ones have though at some point) and I'm sure 99.99% wouldn't even know it is happening since pretty much nothing in their life is going to change over the next 10 months because of it. Many alive today will have lived through the stongest La Nina and El Nino ever, and not even know. Pretty funny really when you think about it. 

I think some people know how hot its been and that there's an El Nino and correlate with global warming. That's about as far as it goes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. 

I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really.

I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).

I think it's much more for the east coast than your area, but def. get the point.

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. 

I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really.

I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).

I wouldn’t dare predict a snowless winter. There’s no data to back that up. But I would place heavy bets on +3 or higher in terms of temp departures in the mean, locally. 

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I think some people know how hot its been and that there's an El Nino and correlate with global warming. That's about as far as it goes.

Probably.  They might hear it on the news or see a headline, but overall I think us here are the only ones that care. The other 99% want to know why their App says 50% chance of rain today and it is sunny, lol.  If I had a dime for every time someone brings up their hour by hour weather app...:D

[mitchnick]

Euro seasonal a little cooler in the MA and SE. This is for the NDJ period. Can't compare DJF because July's forecast ends at NDJ.

[mitchnick]

5H is better this run too. DJF is looking a lot like Cfs2. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal a little cooler in the MA and SE. This is for the NDJ period. Can't compare DJF because July's forecast ends at NDJ.

Here's the August DJF temp forecast. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer. 
 

 

 Even the Euro’s 3.4 RONI peaks at ~+3.4 in Nov, which would obliterate the current record of +2.5 set Jan 1982!

Note that in switching from ERSST version 5 to 6, the record warmest has dropped at it had been +2.7 based on ERSST version 5.
 
 This prog is slightly warmer than the peaks of +3.3 on the prior run (July) and +3.2 on the June run:

 

8/2/26 3.4 RONI peak ~+3.4 in Nov: