2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Cobalt]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all.

Well yeah, because you won't live to see its worst consequences. Easy to be myopic about such a thing when its worst effects are yet to be seen, and that when they do come to fruition, it'll be a different generation who bears the responsibility of cleaning up the mess. 

[roardog]

33 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Well yeah, because you won't live to see its worst consequences. Easy to be myopic about such a thing when its worst effects are yet to be seen, and that when they do come to fruition, it'll be a different generation who bears the responsibility of cleaning up the mess. 

Isn’t that pretty much the case with everything humans do/have done?

[snowman19]

WWB after WWB after WWB…

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Well yeah, because you won't live to see its worst consequences. Easy to be myopic about such a thing when its worst effects are yet to be seen, and that when they do come to fruition, it'll be a different generation who bears the responsibility of cleaning up the mess. 

Nope. It's called faith.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'd be careful with the bold ...

The straight up linear correlation, sure - that's ...sort of similar to the tripole SST state, which is highly correlated to -NAOs..etc..etc..but, the causality of why that colder region is notable there is circumstantially - quite possibly - evolved for different reason..   Mimicry, in other words.   

There's is ongoing research about a recent decadal persistent "Atlantic cold blob" that is being geophysically connected to a longer term changes/flux of the AMOC ... Of course, CC and attribution science is all over that.  Some bigger media, definitely social media doomers, are pumping out warnings how that portends the end of the G-string circulation eddy et al ... reaming on people's chode hair that the new paradigm will mean a black and white noir this that and the other Michael Bay plot line surreality ...   yadda yadda.  

Who knows, but the point is, if there are kernels of truth to that whole science and/or science-narrative, on-going, then it's being caused for other reasons.

Decadal trend lines of NAO are pretty linear with what's happening. We've had pretty much 14 straight +NAO Winter's, at the height of this decadal +NAO phase. Some think it's associated with lagged +AMO. Over the next several decades the "long term cold blob" will likely be somewhere else or reverse. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It seems that NAO is far more malleable and influenced by the solar cycle and ENSO than the AO, so I feel strongly that the AO will be lower than the NAO this season.

That's really been a story for a long time now. 

Since 2012, Summer Arctic Summer SLP anomaly (60-90) has reversed for the following Winter almost every time! 

Gawx showing cold records consistently happening there this warm season is a strong signal for Winter -AO I believe. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 7/20/2026 at 11:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Notice 1997-1998 didn't have a big +NAO? It occurred during ascending solar, not too far removed from solar min....not to mention -QBO.

I wouldn't call it big +NAO. It looks pretty neutral as a Winter average

January the coldest month of the year was -NAO

97-98 had potential to be a good Winter imo. The N. pacific trough extending north into +EPO, further north than mean of other El Nino's, tipped that one warm. Remember the EPO is the most sensitive and volatile region for CONUS temps. For north in latitude isn't necessarily as connected to ENSO as Hadley/mid-latitude cell. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wouldn't call it big +NAO. It looks pretty neutral as a Winter average

January the coldest month of the year was -NAO

97-98 had potential to be a good Winter imo. The N. pacific trough extending north into +EPO, further north than mean of other El Nino's, tipped that one warm. Remember the EPO is the most sensitive and volatile region for CONUS temps. For north in latitude isn't necessarily as connected to ENSO as Hadley/mid-latitude cell. 

 

Agree...what I said. lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree...what I said. lol

Oh I thought it was rhetorical lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Oh I thought it was rhetorical lol

Nope, literal- question mark was confusing, I guess.

My bad-

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

Isn’t that pretty much the case with everything humans do/have done?

Many things but not everything. Rain acidification, poor air quality practices, ozone hole tackled as environmental issues in the 20th century because of domestic and international cooperation. Those prove as examples that run counter to the idea that finger pointing and short term thinking are all we can do when presented with anthropogenic environmental threats with long time horizons. 

[snowman19]

@GaWx  @40/70 Benchmark @donsutherland1 @bluewave @LakePaste25

Almost a guarantee that the record rise in the MEI since April continues unabated. This El Niño system is extremely well coupled, ocean-atmosphere (Bjerknes feedback). Textbook. Coupling right down to the ERWs. Feeling more and more confident that we see a +2 MEI by met fall…..

[MJO812]

So many click bait winter outlooks from meteorologists on YouTube calling for a snowy winter for the Northeast due to the strong STJ.

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So many click bait winter outlooks from meteorologists on YouTube calling for a snowy winter for the Northeast due to the strong STJ.

 Hasn’t it been the case just about every year for a good while that there are numerous clickbait mets on YouTube calling for a snowy winter in the E US for whatever reason they come up with that year? They always seem to do this. What’s extra funny is that the bulk of them usually also have mild and limited snow in the SW US because they don’t live out there. By having mild/snowless on their maps, they probably think that makes them look objective as opposed to having cold/snowy just about everywhere lmao. The whole thing is laughable.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Hasn’t it been the case just about every year for a good while that there are numerous clickbait mets on YouTube calling for a snowy winter in the E US for whatever reason they come up with that year? They always seem to do this. What’s extra funny is that the bulk of them usually also have mild and limited snow in the SW US because they don’t live out there. By having mild/snowless on their maps, they probably think that makes them look objective as opposed to having cold/snowy just about everywhere lmao. The whole thing is laughable.

Especially considering the quality forecasts they can get on this Board. 

[EasternLI]

It's really an excellent site David Gold has put together. Tons of great stuff. It's so nice to be able to see the actual AAM charts again. I'm glad someone has decided to keep up the work with these. These are so much more helpful than simply a positive or negative reading. For example here, we can see the la nina fade away it's influence on the atmosphere as we headed through May. With increasingly el nino conditions exerting influence. One last gasp of the residual la nina around mid June. Now, this el nino looks to be increasingly taking control from here on out as per AIFS forecasts and these obs. Also of note, what has been a very active jet in the Southern hemisphere. Which has been pointed out in this thread too. 

 

[snowman19]

+AAM as far as the eye can see
 

 

In other news, +IOD forecasts continue to go up….

 

[snowman19]

We’ve now passed 1997’s OHC record, we are over +2.6C



The Peru weather service just updated, they are expecting “extraordinary” (aka super) El Niño costero (region 1+2) conditions, with SSTs greater than +3.5C to continue into 2027…..



Region 3.4 continues shattering SST records

[bluewave]

Pretty wild how we have had elements of the summer 2011 weather pattern against the backdrop of such an extreme developing El Nino. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	107.0	2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22
2	106.0	2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03
-	106.0	2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06
3	104.0	2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09
4	103.0	2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04
-	103.0	2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25
-	103.0	2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24
-	103.0	2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18