2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

The South American weather service updated yesterday, they kept the El Niño Costero (coastal), region 1+2 warning in effect, their disco says it’s very likely that a strong El Niño Costeto goes right into April, 2027

The well coupled El Niño standing wave is sticking out like a sore thumb




And the TC parade has begun in the central, western and eastern PAC, with the most activity projected in the EPAC
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. 

So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea. 

Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.

[EasternLI]

Another thing I'm curious to see. Do we start seeing recurving typhoons in the pacific more often again? I don't have stats, but I feel like there's been a dearth of those for the past several years at least. I think some of that could be blamed on a lack of any real phase 8 forcing over that time. There's research out there that describes how it manifests itself in the pacific. Which is that the recurving typhoons are an artifact of phase 8 which in turn act to invigorate the Aleutian low. They're one of the driving forces of that feature apparently. There has certainly been a dearth of those over the same time too.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.

Yeah which makes sense. It lags both from warmth going bottom-up in the tropics via instability/upper level divergence and from planetary scale baroclinicity aloft, which seasonally strengthens in late NH summer and early fall as the Arctic cold pool begins to develop.

[snowman19]

 

 

[MJO812]

https://nypost.com/2026/07/17/science/could-el-nino-and-atlantic-nina-join-forces-to-stop-hurricanes/?utm_campaign=nypost&sr_share=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwdGRjcATIledjbGNrBMiV4GV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHrZJplYxVhr-qY48UT6kFhSme1bPRK1zvCIdz63839hZK2q13u4fIvlfVA-5_aem_TWYFCDQhIkpDDrf6FtadpA

[jaxjagman]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

https://nypost.com/2026/07/17/science/could-el-nino-and-atlantic-nina-join-forces-to-stop-hurricanes/?utm_campaign=nypost&sr_share=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwdGRjcATIledjbGNrBMiV4GV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHrZJplYxVhr-qY48UT6kFhSme1bPRK1zvCIdz63839hZK2q13u4fIvlfVA-5_aem_TWYFCDQhIkpDDrf6FtadpA

Heres that article recently posted

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-nina-joins-super-el-nino-atmospheric-shield-hurricane-season-winter-united-states-canada-fa/

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause

The main expansion mostly occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño with the big global temperature jump to a much higher baseline.

It’s part of the reason that the ridges have been more impressive than the troughs as the planet warms regardless of the ENSO phase. The mid-latitude ridge growth has been driving the persistent -PDO/-AMO SST patterns. But there could be a feedback process at work between the ocean and atmosphere. 

We can notice the Aleutian low weakening since the 1980s with the super El Niños. 

 

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Another thing I'm curious to see. Do we start seeing recurving typhoons in the pacific more often again? I don't have stats, but I feel like there's been a dearth of those for the past several years at least. I think some of that could be blamed on a lack of any real phase 8 forcing over that time. There's research out there that describes how it manifests itself in the pacific. Which is that the recurving typhoons are an artifact of phase 8 which in turn act to invigorate the Aleutian low. They're one of the driving forces of that feature apparently. There has certainly been a dearth of those over the same time too.

I feel like there’s just been a lack of typhoons in general. The entire Pacific has been very quiet for years if my memory is correct, even record low at times. So if we get an active Pacific season like snowman keeps saying then that is another thing that’s different than recent years.

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, roardog said:

I feel like there’s just been a lack of typhoons in general. The entire Pacific has been very quiet for years if my memory is correct, even record low at times. So if we get an active Pacific season like snowman keeps saying then that is another thing that’s different than recent years.

I generally agree, but I can't help but be in a "show me" mentality as long as the Euro seasonal seems so unimpressed with its forecast. I'd like to see it bust for the reasons stated, but only time will tell.

[snowman19]

Very good point about DWKW generation now that the 30C isotherm is east of the dateline….

 

 

Highest on record for June:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

On 7/17/2026 at 9:02 AM, GaWx said:

Sure enough, Darwin on July 16th exceeded 1018 mb for only the 2nd day since daily records started in 1991, a sign of El Niño. It reached 1018.25, which trailed only the 1018.35 of 21 years ago!

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

New all-time highest MSLP record set for Australia.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just your typical 5940dm -PNA block in El Nino. I think it has something to do with cold Arctic. Bluewave probably has a map that says that is record breaking for July. 

90-day SOI is about to go lowest since 1983. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The main expansion mostly occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño with the big global temperature jump to a much higher baseline.

It’s part of the reason that the ridges have been more impressive than the troughs as the planet warms regardless of the ENSO phase. The mid-latitude ridge growth has been driving the persistent -PDO/-AMO SST patterns. But there could be a feedback process at work between the ocean and atmosphere. 

We can notice the Aleutian low weakening since the 1980s with the super El Niños. 

Right - it's not as strong before 2016. If global temps were the main cause though, it wouldn't be over the Pacific Hadley Cells. It would probably be over the Arctic or at least some place north of 60N. South sees a dramatic dropoff in average anomalies. I'm pointing out relative anomalies vs the rest of the world. For the sake of discussion, you can't just say that wherever the warmth is occurring it is because of global warming. If coastal NA had the highest anomalies in +PDO, you would say that is because of global warming. The ENSO driving argument is more removed from GW than you imply. There is probably some other meteorological pattern in effect.  

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just your typical 5940dm -PNA block in El Nino. I think it has something to do with cold Arctic

90-day SOI is about to go lowest since 1983. 

Seems counterintuitive because wouldn’t heat being released in the tropics combined with a cold arctic strengthen the N Pacific low due to a greater contrast? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Seems counterintuitive because wouldn’t heat being released in the tropics combined with a cold arctic strengthen the N Pacific low due to a greater contrast? 

There is a -0.2 correlation with N. Pacific High area in July-Sept. It's not huge in the northern Hemisphere Summer but there usually is still some circulation effects. 

+AO by itself does correlate with -PNA High pressure

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Right - it's not as strong before 2016. If global temps were the main cause though, it wouldn't be over the N. Pacific Hadley Cells. It would probably be over the Arctic or at least some place north of 60N. South sees a dramatic dropoff in average anomalies. I'm pointing out relative anomalies vs the rest of the world. For the sake of discussion, you can't just say that wherever the warmth is occurring it is because of global warming. If coastal NA had the highest anomalies in +PDO, you would say that is because of global warming. The ENSO driving argument is more removed from GW than you imply. There is probably some other pattern in effect.  

Both the mid-latitude North and South Pacific ridges have dramatically expanded since the late 90s. The first expansion coincided with the first global higher baseline temperature jump following the 1997-1998 super El Niño.

The 2nd and more dramatic expansion occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. This is the pattern which is driving the record -PDO since 2018-2019 with the record surface and subsurface warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. 

Some of the climate models run back in 2013 were showing a similar pattern developing. But it was forecast to be a much slower process than what has occurred and be focused a little further north. 

So my guess is that the planet is much more sensitive to the effects of warming than the climate models forecasted. 

Plus the model which showed this ridge expansion also forecast to lower pressures over the Arctic the summer like we have seen since 2013. We were just discussing the very strong low north of Alaska during June. 
 

North Pacific 500 mb ridge expansion 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I just think it's the science of pointing out things after the fact. If the 500mb rise had occurred in Europe that would be the "after a higher baseline jump effect". There is probably something more meteorological going on. 

I don't think a higher global temperature hones in primarily on the Pacific Hadley Cells. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just think it's the science of pointing out things after the fact. If the 500mb rise had occurred in Europe that would be the "after a higher baseline jump effect". There is probably something more meteorological going on. 

I don't think a higher global temperature hones in primarily on the Pacific Hadley Cells. 

That’s due to the evolution of the climate models lagging behind the speed at which the climate is warming. So all these big shifts have been occurring without any prior notice. 

The first big global temperature jump in 1997-1998 lead to the loss of most of the older Arctic sea ice during the 2000’s. Summers began to significantly warm around 2010 at this new higher baseline level.

North American winters dramatically warmed following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. The rapid warming of the Pacific east of Japan and to the north of Hawaii occurred at this new baseline.

The next big jump was in 2023-2024 which is only three years ago. Two of the warmest winters on record for the CONUS occurred at this new higher temperature level. 

Now we are looking at another global temperature jump with this strongest El Niño on record only three years later which is a first. 

So my guess is that we see more shifts which weren’t anticipated following the jump in global temperatures with this even more extreme event. 
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s due to the evolution of the climate models lagging behind the speed at which the climate is warming. So all these big shifts have been occurring without any prior notice. 

The first big global temperature jump in 1997-1998 lead to the loss of most of the older Arctic sea ice during the 2000’s. Summers began to significantly warm around 2010 at this new higher baseline level.

North American winters dramatically warmed following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. The rapid warming of the Pacific east of Japan and to the north of Hawaii occurred at this new baseline.

The next big jump was in 2023-2024 which is only three years ago. Two of the warmest winters on record for the CONUS occurred at this new higher temperature level. 

Now we are looking at another global temperature jump with this strongest El Niño on record only three years later which is a first. 

So my guess is that we see more shifts which weren’t anticipated following the jump in global temperatures with this even more extreme event. 
 

I never mentioned climate models. I'm just saying the logic is areas further north and over the arctic are +2-3std greater than the tropics and mid-latitudes. So when a 11-year anomaly is centered so far south, and with much greater anomaly than the north, that's because something big is going on. A specific meteorological pattern. 

These jumps to you are like "points" or "thresholds" but I don't think it works like that. Maybe a small part, but there was a string in 1976-1983 with 4 El Nino's, 3 Neutral, and 0 La Nina's and that was followed by one of the most +PNA times decadally on record. Super El Nino's are not expanding the Pacific Hadley Cell to such an extent imo. Actually the most basic argument is that Super Nino-driven global max temp rises should be melting Arctic ice to a greater extent, and the opposite has happened since 2013. Imo, that's a big reason for the -PNA patterns, constant low pressure over the Arctic circle in the warm season. 

I agree that it will be interesting to see where we go from here. But I don't expect the main cause to be a northern and southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expansion much greater than all other regions of the globe. 

 

[LakePaste25]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s due to the evolution of the climate models lagging behind the speed at which the climate is warming. So all these big shifts have been occurring without any prior notice. 

The first big global temperature jump in 1997-1998 lead to the loss of most of the older Arctic sea ice during the 2000’s. Summers began to significantly warm around 2010 at this new higher baseline level.

North American winters dramatically warmed following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. The rapid warming of the Pacific east of Japan and to the north of Hawaii occurred at this new baseline.

The next big jump was in 2023-2024 which is only three years ago. Two of the warmest winters on record for the CONUS occurred at this new higher temperature level. 

Now we are looking at another global temperature jump with this strongest El Niño on record only three years later which is a first. 

So my guess is that we see more shifts which weren’t anticipated following the jump in global temperatures with this even more extreme event. 
 

Important to note that this El Niño event will remove a lot of heat from the oceans (and into the atmosphere) if it materializes as record-breaking. This is one of the reasons why El Nino doesn’t preclude a strong La Niña, and ENSO itself acts more like a damped nonlinear recharge oscillator. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Really healthy look in the subsurface. Warm pool is extending much further west than 1997 at this time. 

This is a good El Nino to test everything against

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Important to note that this El Niño event will remove a lot of heat from the oceans (and into the atmosphere) if it materializes as record-breaking. This is one of the reasons why El Nino doesn’t preclude a strong La Niña, and ENSO itself acts more like a damped nonlinear recharge oscillator. 

Since the early 1980's when the DMI hits a certain porportion its always followed by a LaNina the following winter.As if this is one of those years is unknown ATM.DMI peaks into fall so there is a few months to even seemingly have an idea

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I think we are still "evening out" a strong 28-year period of La Nina:

Before this year, Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina.  Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina.   Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. 

Since 1948, the tendency for reversal of multi-year ENSO patterns has been really strong. Here's the closest multi-year example:

Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (ONI):

70-71: Moderate La Nina

71-72: Weak La Nina

72-73: Super El Nino

73-74: Strong La Nina

74-75: Weak La Nina

75-76: Strong La Nina

ENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak (ONI):

76-77: Moderate El Nino

77-78: Moderate El Nino

78-79: Neutral

79-80: Weak El Nino

80-81: Neutral

81-82: Neutral

82-83: Super El Nino

Really interesting that we didn't see another La Nina for 7 years after 70-76.

Then again, it has also been really hard to go ENSO Neutral in any year:

Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per RONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. 

Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per ONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. 

I don't know that we'll see a Moderate-Strong La Nina snap back this time. Cold water is not really building in the western-subsurface. Weak Nina would be my guess but I could be wrong!