2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

The South American weather service updated yesterday, they kept the El Niño Costero (coastal), region 1+2 warning in effect, their disco says it’s very likely that a strong El Niño Costeto goes right into April, 2027

The well coupled El Niño standing wave is sticking out like a sore thumb




And the TC parade has begun in the central, western and eastern PAC, with the most activity projected in the EPAC
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. 

So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea. 

Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.

[EasternLI]

Another thing I'm curious to see. Do we start seeing recurving typhoons in the pacific more often again? I don't have stats, but I feel like there's been a dearth of those for the past several years at least. I think some of that could be blamed on a lack of any real phase 8 forcing over that time. There's research out there that describes how it manifests itself in the pacific. Which is that the recurving typhoons are an artifact of phase 8 which in turn act to invigorate the Aleutian low. They're one of the driving forces of that feature apparently. There has certainly been a dearth of those over the same time too.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good analogy....Snowfall won't prevent a cutter, but it can delay/retard the warming perhaps even trigger the development of a triple point low, while the upper levels still flood with warmth. Difference here is the lower levels are most responsive to ENSO, and it's actually the upper levels that lag.

Yeah which makes sense. It lags both from warmth going bottom-up in the tropics via instability/upper level divergence and from planetary scale baroclinicity aloft, which seasonally strengthens in late NH summer and early fall as the Arctic cold pool begins to develop.

[snowman19]

 

 

[MJO812]

https://nypost.com/2026/07/17/science/could-el-nino-and-atlantic-nina-join-forces-to-stop-hurricanes/?utm_campaign=nypost&sr_share=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwdGRjcATIledjbGNrBMiV4GV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHrZJplYxVhr-qY48UT6kFhSme1bPRK1zvCIdz63839hZK2q13u4fIvlfVA-5_aem_TWYFCDQhIkpDDrf6FtadpA

[jaxjagman]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

https://nypost.com/2026/07/17/science/could-el-nino-and-atlantic-nina-join-forces-to-stop-hurricanes/?utm_campaign=nypost&sr_share=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwdGRjcATIledjbGNrBMiV4GV4dG4DYWVtAjExAHNydGMGYXBwX2lkDDM1MDY4NTUzMTcyOAABHrZJplYxVhr-qY48UT6kFhSme1bPRK1zvCIdz63839hZK2q13u4fIvlfVA-5_aem_TWYFCDQhIkpDDrf6FtadpA

Heres that article recently posted

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-nina-joins-super-el-nino-atmospheric-shield-hurricane-season-winter-united-states-canada-fa/

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause

The main expansion mostly occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño with the big global temperature jump to a much higher baseline.

It’s part of the reason that the ridges have been more impressive than the troughs as the planet warms regardless of the ENSO phase. The mid-latitude ridge growth has been driving the persistent -PDO/-AMO SST patterns. But there could be a feedback process at work between the ocean and atmosphere. 

We can notice the Aleutian low weakening since the 1980s with the super El Niños. 

 

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Another thing I'm curious to see. Do we start seeing recurving typhoons in the pacific more often again? I don't have stats, but I feel like there's been a dearth of those for the past several years at least. I think some of that could be blamed on a lack of any real phase 8 forcing over that time. There's research out there that describes how it manifests itself in the pacific. Which is that the recurving typhoons are an artifact of phase 8 which in turn act to invigorate the Aleutian low. They're one of the driving forces of that feature apparently. There has certainly been a dearth of those over the same time too.

I feel like there’s just been a lack of typhoons in general. The entire Pacific has been very quiet for years if my memory is correct, even record low at times. So if we get an active Pacific season like snowman keeps saying then that is another thing that’s different than recent years.

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, roardog said:

I feel like there’s just been a lack of typhoons in general. The entire Pacific has been very quiet for years if my memory is correct, even record low at times. So if we get an active Pacific season like snowman keeps saying then that is another thing that’s different than recent years.

I generally agree, but I can't help but be in a "show me" mentality as long as the Euro seasonal seems so unimpressed with its forecast. I'd like to see it bust for the reasons stated, but only time will tell.

[snowman19]

Very good point about DWKW generation now that the 30C isotherm is east of the dateline….

 

 

Highest on record for June:

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

On 7/17/2026 at 9:02 AM, GaWx said:

Sure enough, Darwin on July 16th exceeded 1018 mb for only the 2nd day since daily records started in 1991, a sign of El Niño. It reached 1018.25, which trailed only the 1018.35 of 21 years ago!

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

New all-time highest MSLP record set for Australia.