2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

“The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing.

Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history.

Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point:

“+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent.

A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause.

The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts.

Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback.

However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.”


 
^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[snowman19]

The models continue to show the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC waking up with TC’s. This is only going to keep the WWB train going and going….

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, forkyfork said:

maybe northeastern backyards will get a ku

Probably a better shot than most of the past decade to be perfectly honest...it's been dry as hell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. agree with raindance on volatility....probably going to be a potpourri of east-based, Modoki and MC forcing, with less emphasis on that latter relative to the past decade.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This +QBO is actually helping to magnify and strengthen this super El Niño. It’s supporting a more robust MJO which enhances the WWBs/westerlies, DWKWs and warming; both surface and subsurface. It’s also helping to support strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback). Once the +IOD gets going, it’s going to constructively interfere with this process even further. A record-breaking historic event is all but guaranteed at this point:

“+QBO is not the engine of this chain; it is the stratospheric background modulator that determines under what conditions tropical convection can become more organized and persistent.

A favorable vertical phase structure can support the deep convection of the MJO and upper tropospheric divergence by altering the temperature and stability field around the tropopause.

The strengthening of the convective core over the Western–Central Equatorial Pacific, in turn, reorganizes the surface pressure gradient, increasing the likelihood of westerly wind anomalies and the development of Westerly Wind Bursts.

Sufficiently strong and persistent WWBs transfer eastward momentum to the ocean; downwelling Kelvin waves, which induce downward displacement in the thermocline, transport the warm water volume to the central and eastern Pacific. This deepens the thermocline, paves the way for surface warming, and—if the existing ocean heat content is adequate—can strengthen ENSO coupling through the Bjerknes feedback.

However, this process is neither linear nor inevitable; the ultimate response depends far more on the position and amplitude of the MJO, the duration of the WWB, the initial SST pattern, the state of the trade winds, and the preconditioning of the ocean than on the +QBO phase. The schema therefore represents not a definitive cause–effect chain, but a multiscale and state-dependent framework of tropical interactions extending from the stratosphere to the ocean.”


 
^ https://x.com/atmoslabwx/status/2074977555782996458?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

this illustration there is annoying... the arrow of the circulation eddy is pointed up demonstratively where they write "down" welling

[TheClimateChanger]

I was speculating on whether this month could become the hottest on record for the CONUS. Modeling continues to support. If the NBM is correct, we would be at or above 2.5F (above 1991-2020) by the 18th. Full month record is 2.38F in 1936, followed by 2.34F in 2012. CFS, EPS and GEFS all have us above the 2011 record for population-weighted CDDs.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

An interesting trend with the QBO this decade, with it wildly swinging back and forth from +QBO to -QBO each year):

2020-21: +QBO (11.15)

2021-22: -QBO (-26.34)

2022-23: +QBO (12.89)

2023-24: -QBO (-25.86)

2024-25: +QBO (13.78)

2025-26: -QBO (-26.92)

2026-27: +QBO?

(2027-28: -QBO?)

(2028-29: +QBO?)

[snowman19]

 
@Lakepaste25

[LakePaste25]

What a few of us have been saying on here:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

An interesting trend with the QBO this decade, with it wildly swinging back and forth from +QBO to -QBO each year):

2020-21: +QBO (11.15)

2021-22: -QBO (-26.34)

2022-23: +QBO (12.89)

2023-24: -QBO (-25.86)

2024-25: +QBO (13.78)

2025-26: -QBO (-26.92)

2026-27: +QBO?

(2027-28: -QBO?)

(2028-29: +QBO?)

That is baseline for the QBO.....it's an oddity when it remains in the same phase for consecutive years.

[snowman19]

We are about to catch up to and surpass 1997 in the eastern ENSO regions:



 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

That looks like the east-based/intense composite forcing, but more expansive both to the east (into S America) AND to the west (towards Dateline). Supports what raindance and I were mentioning RE volatility, albeit a mild national temp in the mean (warmth more anomalous and greater residence than cold) this winter.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

An interesting trend with the QBO this decade, with it wildly swinging back and forth from +QBO to -QBO each year):

2020-21: +QBO (11.15)

2021-22: -QBO (-26.34)

2022-23: +QBO (12.89)

2023-24: -QBO (-25.86)

2024-25: +QBO (13.78)

2025-26: -QBO (-26.92)

2026-27: +QBO?

(2027-28: -QBO?)

(2028-29: +QBO?)

Dips: below -26 in ‘25, ‘24, ‘22, ‘18, ‘15, ‘12, ‘10, ‘07, ‘05, ‘96, ‘94, ‘84;

But none in 1983-1948: why?

 

[LakePaste25]

ELI has already surpassed most of the historical events. i would expect this to go further east as that 30C isotherm moves east 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

ELI has already surpassed most of the historical events. i would expect this to go further east as that 30C isotherm moves east 

 

What is ELI?

[LakePaste25]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is ELI?

Enso longtidue index. It’s a fairly new index that’s used to calculate the longitude in the tropical pacific (between 5N and 5S) where it’s most supportive of deep tropical convection regardless of actual SSTA. Threshold for deep tropical convection is dynamic year-year as it incorporates mean tropics SST. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079203

There’s actually a page that calculates past events with it: 

https://ggweather.com/enso/eli.htm

Looks like they assign the 97-98 event as the highest (note that the 220 peak is the same as 140W). 

[GaWx]

The WCS daily PDO has plunged from -0.19 on June 24th to -1.43 just 2 weeks later:

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Enso longtidue index. It’s a fairly new index that’s used to calculate the longitude in the tropical pacific (between 5N and 5S) where it’s most supportive of deep tropical convection regardless of actual SSTA. Threshold for deep tropical convection is dynamic year-year as it incorporates mean tropics SST. 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079203

There’s actually a page that calculates past events with it: 

https://ggweather.com/enso/eli.htm

Looks like they assign the 97-98 event as the highest (note that the 220 peak is the same as 140W). 

Wow, cool...so it's more precise then simply viewing a VP or OLR composite. Is the latest data behind a paywall? I'd love to incorporate that...

[LakePaste25]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, cool...so it's more precise then simply viewing a VP or OLR composite. Is the latest data behind a paywall? I'd love to incorporate that...

It’s free on Alex Boreham’s site (cyclonicwx.com) SST page. That second link I posted is from a forecaster that went and tabulated it for past ENSO events which isn’t paywalled either. 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Per TAO, 5 day averaged SSTs of 30C+ reached not only 180 but also to 170W at 0N as early as April 22nd of 2015:

  Location:  0N 170W  22 Apr 2015 to 22 May 2015 (    7 times,  1 blocks) Gen. Date Jul  9 2026
 Units: Sea Surface Temperature (C), -9.99 = missing
 Time: 1200 22 Apr 2015 to 1200 22 May 2015 (index     1 to     7,    7 times)
 Depth (M):        1 QUALITY
 YYYYMMDD HHMM   SST Q
 20150422 1200 30.04 1.  
 20150427 1200 -9.99 0
 20150502 1200 -9.99 0
 20150507 1200 29.85 1
 20150512 1200 29.89 1
 20150517 1200 29.91 1
 20150522 1200 30.06 1

Time: 1200  3 Dec 2015 to 1200  2 Jan 2016 (index    49 to    55,    7 times)
 Depth (M):        1 QUALITY
 YYYYMMDD HHMM   SST Q
 20151203 1200 30.62 1
 20151208 1200 30.68 1
 20151213 1200 30.76 1
 20151218 1200 30.53 1
 20151223 1200 30.26 1
 20151228 1200 30.29 1
 20160102 1200 30.23 1

 ——————

This year it was still <29C in April and took til June 1st to exceed 30C although it’s been mainly rising since:

 Location:  0N 170W   2 Apr 2026 to  6 Jul 2026 (   20 times,  1 blocks) Gen. Date Jul  9 2026
 Units: Sea Surface Temperature (C), -9.99 = missing
 Time: 1200  2 Apr 2026 to 1200  6 Jul 2026 (index     1 to    20,   20 times)
 Depth (M):        1 QUALITY
 YYYYMMDD HHMM   SST Q
 20260402 1200 28.01 2
 20260407 1200 28.14 2
 20260412 1200 28.35 2
 20260417 1200 28.65 2
 20260422 1200 28.74 2
 20260427 1200 28.94 2
 20260502 1200 29.17 2
 20260507 1200 29.36 2
 20260512 1200 29.34 2
 20260517 1200 29.67 2
 20260522 1200 29.59 2
 20260527 1200 29.82 2
 20260601 1200 30.05 2

20260606 1200 30.38 2
 20260611 1200 30.42 2
 20260616 1200 30.59 2
 20260621 1200 30.58 2
 20260626 1200 30.56 2
 20260701 1200 30.55 2
 20260706 1200 30.46 2

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/data_deliv/deliv-nojava.html

@snowman19

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably a better shot than most of the past decade to be perfectly honest...it's been dry as hell.

Winter could average +10F with one super KU that dumps 3-4' in this climate. 

[brooklynwx99]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Winter could average +10F with one super KU that dumps 3-4' in this climate. 

yeah, leaning on the 2015-16 or 1982-83 outcomes right now

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, leaning on the 2015-16 or 1982-83 outcomes right now

Why do you say? I mean haven't all super ninos kinda been 50/50 boom or bust? As it happens...every other super has produced in the Mid-Atl and NE.

65-66 good, 72-73 bad, 82-83 good, 97-98 bad, 15-16 good (one hit wonder, but still)