2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, all of the data is available in this post above. Check how closely CANSIPS resembles Modoki data set.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift the north Pacific over the past couple of years.

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I binned my El Nino composites by weak, mod, strong and intense.....the CFS looks exactly like the "strong" composite at 500mb (1957, 1965, 1986, 1987, 1991, 2009, 2023).

 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

Regarding super strength El Niño seasons, 1957-8, 1972-3 and 1982-3 were all fantastic to historic in the SE overall relative to climo in terms of wintry precip. Also, Feb of 1889 had a major snow in the SE. 1965-6 had historic cold in late Jan. In addition, Jan and especially Feb of 1958 were quite cold! Most importantly, they are usually wet, which we so desperately need to relieve the drought!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much in the way of sustained cold.

Hey personally while I love sustained cold, don't have to have it. The snow is the bigger thing for me. I just don't want a 72-73 or 97-98 1.2" snow total...it seems super niños are boom or bust where I am.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. a risk with a pumped STJ....see 2016. More often than not, that is more of a worry for NNE.

72-73..Southeast did well with snow. What happened in NY Metro was either supression or just not enough cold air when precip arrived. Tons of rainstorms. 97-98 was similar

[FPizz]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Epitomizes your online contributions over the course of the past two decades....what a waste of a degree. Plenty of highly esteemed contributors like @bluewaveand @raindancewx are pretty painfully objective with regard to east coast winter prospects...it's not about that. You just don't offer much value not because you aren't capable, but you allocate all of your time and energy towards mindless trolling.

When he posts on 33 hes better because hes afraid of the 2 guys in charge.  Its quite funny.

[LakePaste25]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

When he posts on 33 hes better because hes afraid of the 2 guys in charge.  Its quite funny.

Oh, I know...he has a lot to offer...he used to DM me some times in the lead up to large events. He just doesn't take this site seriously, which is fine, but in that case just lurk.

[40/70 Benchmark]

How do you access 33? I had a membership over there, but all I can find is the X and Facebook accounts....

[Typhoon Tip]

Super duper bust?

Moderate ENSO might still be able to penetrate RONI 

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

72-73..Southeast did well with snow. What happened in NY Metro was either supression or just not enough cold air when precip arrived. Tons of rainstorms. 97-98 was similar

Early trade wind pattern in this event certainly looked like 72-73. Then tilted more towards 97-98. It's a souped up version of those older canonical events, imo, if superimposed on a warmer background state. Problem is I think the warm pool is coming even further east than '98 did (that event got to about 150W) and it will drag everything else into resonance with it, so makes a straight shot comparison more muddled.

[csnavywx]

Case in point. We were slightly behind 97/98 with thermocline depression. That year took a break in July before turning the turbojets back on. This one doesn't appear to be taking a breather.