2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which, according to Usetobe (retired met from LWX), is exactly where we want it (just east of the DL)  come winter. Can the mean forcing hold there come winter is, course, the question. We'll see.

It will probably shift eastward more, but just that the fact that it's made it there is very remarkable given what has taken place over the past 10 years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have any insight as to if/when they are every going to calculate the QBO again? It hasn't updated since February and with each passing month it gets more difficult to select analogs with any degree of specificity. I wish they would just use the ERA 5 data base....

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone have any insight as to if/when they are every going to calculate the QBO again? It hasn't updated since February and with each passing month it gets more difficult to select analogs with any degree of specificity. I wish they would just use the ERA 5 data base....

This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb



In other news, the +IOD gets going soon
 
 

 

 

And the ++PMM continues


@Gawx Has there ever been an El Niño event that saw the 30C isotherm end up east of the dateline? I know 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 didn’t do it….

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb



In other news, the +IOD gets going soon

 

 

And the ++PMM continues

 

 

I know the QBO will be positive...just looking for monthly numbers.

[GaWx]

 The latest CFS (10 days of runs ens. mean) is at the highest of any I’ve saved with relative peaks way up at ~3.4 (Nov) and nearly 3.25 (SON and OND)! The record highest since 1950 are well below these:

1 month: 2.69 (Jan 1983), 2.56 (Dec 1982), 2.48 (Nov 2015), 2.44 (Oct 1997), and 2.43 (Nov 1997) 

3 month: 2.52 (NDJ 1982-3), 2.49 (DJF 1982-3), 2.43 (OND 1982), 2.38 (SON 1997), and 2.37 (NDJ 2015-6)

 The most rapid monthly rates of warming of the mean is from July’s ~1.46 to Aug’s ~2.30, a warming of ~0.84, followed by a warming of ~0.70 from Aug’s ~2.30 to Sep’s ~3.00. So, the progged CFS rate of warming from July to Sep of ~1.54 will be the key period to see if the progged peak is actually going to verify closely. The record fastest 2 month warming is only ~1.3 (Nov 1954-Jan 1955 and Aug-Oct 1982).

————————

 Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb



In other news, the +IOD gets going soon
 
 

 

 

And the ++PMM continues


@Gawx Has there ever been an El Niño event that saw the 30C isotherm end up east of the dateline? I know 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 didn’t do it….

 

 

 

 

 

Adam, the monthly ERSST for Nino 4, which is from 150W to 160E, was warmest on record in these months:

30.21: Nov. ‘23

30.19: Jun ‘26

30.13: Nov ‘15

30.04: Dec ‘23

30.00: May ‘26

 With the midpoint of Nino 4 being E of dateline (175W), the odds are very high that 30C made it E of the dateline prior to ‘26, especially in late ‘23 and late ‘15. However, it very likely didn’t happen in summer of ‘23 although it very well could have also in spring-fall ‘15 based on Nino 4 being 28.8 to 28.9 then.

 

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noa

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.

that's because of how high the anomalies get!!! omg

[LakePaste25]

yeah they’re not “cooling” by a full 2.05C from Dec to March. the seasonal climatological mean is also increasing. 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

yeah they’re not “cooling” by a full 2.05C from Dec to March. the seasonal climatological mean is also increasing. 

Anomalies cool by 2.05C Dec to Mar as that post was specifically addressing anomalies. That would be a record rate of the cooling of the anomalies Dec to Mar vs the current record being in 72-73 (1.87C).

[40/70 Benchmark]

I binned my El Nino composites by weak, mod, strong and intense.....the CFS looks exactly like the "strong" composite at 500mb (1957, 1965, 1986, 1987, 1991, 2009, 2023).

[40/70 Benchmark]

The intense composite has the ridge access displaced more to the south and over NE, like the east-based composite.

It's definitely most redolent of east-based as compared to Modoki and Basin-wide, but that slight difference ostensibly allows for a salvageable pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The intense composite has the ridge access displaced more to the south and over NE, like the east-based composite.

It's definitely most redolent of east-based as compared to Modoki and Basin-wide, but that slight difference ostensibly allows for a salvageable pattern.

If the model were right, we can probably assume that greater heights will leak southward into the NE given the tendency for seasonal guidance to underestimate modern ridges, so verification would be more reminiscent of the east-based composite. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the model were right, we can probably assume that more ridging will leak southward into the NE given the tendency for seasonal guidance to underestimate modern ridges.

And what would that result in, winter-wise?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the model were right, we can probably assume that greater heights will leak southward into the NE given the tendency for seasonal guidance to underestimate modern ridges, so verification would be more reminiscent of the east-based composite. 

 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And what would that result in, winter-wise?

 

[LakePaste25]

It’s basically a lower % of modoki forcing, so the SE US is NN instead of blue in the seasonal mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s basically a lower % of modoki forcing, so the SE US is NN instead of blue in the seasonal mean. 

Yea, there is going to be some variability....it looks most like the east-based composite, but I agree that there will be some periods of dateline forcing. Heights are also extending back further west than the east-based composite in that forecast, which is a bit more difficult to dismiss than the northward displaced ridging, and denotes what you are referencing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s basically a lower % of modoki forcing, so the SE US is NN instead of blue in the seasonal mean. 

CANSIPS is more full-fledged Modoki. CFS is more reasonable IMO given the magnitude if the warmth within the ENSO region.

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The intense composite has the ridge access displaced more to the south and over NE, like the east-based composite.

It's definitely most redolent of east-based as compared to Modoki and Basin-wide, but that slight difference ostensibly allows for a salvageable pattern.

Yes, but the real chances, if they come, would likely be in the 1/15-3/15 period. Barring a miracle, December will likely disappoint if you're looking for snow outside of the higher elevations imho.

[TheClimateChanger]

Impressive heat at the Buffalo intake "crib" - water temperature up to 75F, tying the record for the date set in 2012, 2002 & 1966. The mean of 1927-2025 is 69F.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yes, but the real chances, if they come, would likely be in the 1/15-3/15 period. Barring a miracle, December will likely disappoint if you're looking for snow outside of the higher elevations imho.

PROBABLY...but you never know with that much moisture hanging around....I got creamed just before Xmas in 1997, and the same thing nearly happened in 2023...it was just some flukey nuances of the of the PV phase that sent it west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Impressive heat at the Buffalo intake "crib" - water temperature up to 75F, tying the record for the date set in 2012, 2002 & 1966. The mean of 1927-2025 is 69F.

Maybe we can get a depression to form

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yes, but the real chances, if they come, would likely be in the 1/15-3/15 period. Barring a miracle, December will likely disappoint if you're looking for snow outside of the higher elevations imho.

I'd take that...I mean Dec is an automatic punt in a Nino where I am (except 2009). But isn't east-based historically warm all the way through most of the time? (Again, maybe that's just my region) What would be different in the 1/15-3/15 period?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd take that...I mean Dec is an automatic punt in a Nino where I am (except 2009). But isn't east-based historically warm all the way through most of the time? (Again, maybe that's just my region) What would be different in the 1/15-3/15 period?

The warmth isn't relegated to the east, though. We could see a sequence like 2016 with some extreme intervals of winter weather mixed in...it just won't be sustained.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The warmth isn't relegated to the east, though. We could see a sequence like 2016 with some extreme intervals of winter weather mixed in...it just won't be sustained.

How was 2015-16 oriented?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How was 2015-16 oriented?

Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift in the north Pacific over the past couple of years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wouldn't resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much in the way of sustained cold.

[LakePaste25]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I binned my El Nino composites by weak, mod, strong and intense.....the CFS looks exactly like the "strong" composite at 500mb (1957, 1965, 1986, 1987, 1991, 2009, 2023).

 

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The intense composite has the ridge access displaced more to the south and over NE, like the east-based composite.

It's definitely most redolent of east-based as compared to Modoki and Basin-wide, but that slight difference ostensibly allows for a salvageable pattern.

I converted these to VP anomalies. Basically the intense composite has stronger subsidence over the MC while the strong composite has stronger subsidence over S America. Makes sense.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/6/2026 at 9:33 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get what you are saying...there is some hyperbole going on, but I also think that you should be a bit more measured with respect to your own tone, as well....while the position of that GOA low is more redolent of the stronger composite than the weak data set, it's also not very representative of the east-based composite, either. I would expect that the season would cool down beyond December extrapolating out.

Weaker (left) vs Stronger (right)

Modoki (Left), Basin-Wide (Center) vs East-Based (Right)

Yea, all of the data is available in this post above. Check how closely CANSIPS resembles Modoki data set.

5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

I converted these to VP anomalies. Basically the intense composite has stronger subsidence over the MC while the strong composite has stronger subsidence over S America. Makes sense.

 

 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't be resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much in the way of sustained cold.

Suppression depression 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Suppression depression 

Def. a risk with a pumped STJ....see 2016. More often than not, that is more of a worry for NNE.