2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 With the typical mean +PNA, even Canadian air that’s mild for them and the N US can come down rapidly enough to be BN once it gets to the south. Example: 20 F in MSP, which is AN for there in winter, can come down fast enough to limit modification and still bring BN 30F to the south. Some of the coldest winters in the SE were when it was mild in Canada. Canadian air with a straight shot down here is always cold for us. The coldest anomalies in a +PNA are often in the SE with New England to the Lakes often NN.

I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.” 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Today’s OISST update (for June 3rd) doesn’t have the dramatic 0.09C rise of each of the last 2 days, but it still rose 0.04C to +1.229C.The implied RONI equivalent is ~+0.7C:

*Corrected for typos*

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I agree, but verbatim the model run posted is not a classic +PNA/-EPO look that we tend to see in weaker Ninos. There may be periods of it, however which could be factored in the ensemble mean. I just wouldn’t take those blues in the South as “winter-like cold that supports snowfall most of the month.” 

 

 

Winter storms in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry.

 So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being Mei Lu from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Winter storns in the South outside of the mountains are for the most part somewhat freaky events. Thus, due to the low frequency, our snowiest or iciest winters are often from mainly just one major (or series of) winter storms at most. Examples: late Jan of 1940, Feb of 1952, mid Feb of 1958, 12/31/1963, 2/9-10/1973, 3/1-2/1980, 3/24/1983, late Jan of 1987, 1/7-8/1988, mid Jan of 1992, the ice storm of late Jan 2005, and Dec of 2018. All of these were during El Niño and these were enough to make them wintry.

 So, El Nino’s on average produce for wintry precip despite often being Mei Lu from just one storm on the right track (usually Gulf to off SE Coast) at the right time (when cold enough air to the N/NW being tapped into enough).

Yep. And if you scroll thru the slp maps for each month, you can easily imagine at least one good hit down your way. January, and especially February, even show cold air/ridging pressing south along the Appalachians starting in Virginia.  Here's a link to December:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2026060406&fh=6

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:

How dare they ruin the reputation of LinkedIn with 1 random post. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Can someone say +AO? (For the 3rd warm season in a row, since the Solar Max)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

May be one of the stronger -PNA's on record in the long range, near the 19-20th  

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, FPizz said:

I think he is fairly close to Erie PA.

Same with Erie. And NYC for that matter. 1990s winters were warmer than 2000s or 2010s winters. The globe may have warmed in that timeframe but winters in the Lakes/Northeast were colder the next 2 decades after the 1990s. So any parallels to the 1997-98 nino I certainly wont be worried about a verbatim weather scenario with temps a degree or 2 warmer, thats not how the weather works. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I saw this Early 2026-2027 Snowfall Insight on LinkedIn:

Going to be a snowy winter in Vegas and Miami!

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Modelology vs meteorology. 

Where exactly is the cold air coming from if it’s all above normal north of Tennessee? It has to travel from somewhere on the way down right? Cold air can’t come from the pacific at California’s latitude. Which would mean at minimum, near or slightly below normal temps north of TN as it travels down? 

Yeah. i don’t buy wall to wall torch up here either. Maybe it’s 80/20, 70/30 or whatever. But the main reason that it’s blue in the South while dark red over the Great lakes is due to the uniformity of the airmass. 40s is well above normal for the Grest Lakes, but below normal for Louisiana. 

 

 

This is a good point. But even then, its not steady temps across the board. Its still colder in the mean in the north than the south. 

Which means blues in the south arent necessarily great for snow, but reds in the north arent prohibitive of snow either.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is a good point. But even then, its not steady temps across the board. Its still colder in the mean in the north than the south. 

Which means blues in the south arent necessarily great for snow, but reds in the north arent prohibitive of snow either.

It seems to be warming near the oceans, on the East coast and West coast, but not as much in the Midwest, where it's flat.

I remember global predictions in the 90s had a +PDO/El Nino pattern projected for decades forward, but it has not happened that way. Maybe some of the EC warmth is associated with +AMO decadal. 

[buckeye]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is a good point. But even then, its not steady temps across the board. Its still colder in the mean in the north than the south. 

Which means blues in the south arent necessarily great for snow, but reds in the north arent prohibitive of snow either.

Yea, a  -5 departure for the winter in a place like Atlanta  and southern apps probably implies some much below normal periods in there that if timed up with a nino-style stj can give them their freak snows.   Meanwhile, during those same periods we're cold but watching the juice slide under us.     Likewise, when a place like Columbus or Detroit sees a +5 departure for the winter in a nino, chances are that the cold periods are dry and the warm is wet.     

But like i mentioned in an earlier post, super ninos can definitely pack a surprise or two.

 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Yea, a  -5 departure for the winter in a place like Atlanta  and southern apps probably implies some much below normal periods in there that if timed up with a nino-style stj can give them their freak snows.   Meanwhile, during those same periods we're cold but watching the juice slide under us.     Likewise, when a place like Columbus or Detroit sees a +5 departure for the winter in a nino, chances are that the cold periods are dry and the warm is wet.     

But like i mentioned in an earlier post, super ninos can definitely pack a surprise or two.

 

Nice to hear from you Buckeye. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Yea, a  -5 departure for the winter in a place like Atlanta  and southern apps probably implies some much below normal periods in there that if timed up with a nino-style stj can give them their freak snows.   Meanwhile, during those same periods we're cold but watching the juice slide under us.     Likewise, when a place like Columbus or Detroit sees a +5 departure for the winter in a nino, chances are that the cold periods are dry and the warm is wet.     

But like i mentioned in an earlier post, super ninos can definitely pack a surprise or two.

 

The scenario you describe (dry during the cold periods) was the big problem in 1982-83 here. I haven't looked up Colombus but in Detroit, still plenty of snow chances. Ironically in 1997-98 Feb was the really bad month here (the rest of winter was ok, including a snowy mid nov to mid dec) but Cincinnati got buried in Feb. All varies. 2015-16 finished just a bit below avg snow wise at Detroit but above avg snow a bit further north near @roardog.

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Can someone say +AO? (For the 3rd warm season in a row, since the Solar Max)

 

[mitchnick]

[bluewave]

The latest June update from the ECMWF has the ONI plumes Nino 3.4 average around +3.6 and the RONI near +3.0.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The latest June update from the ECMWF has the ONI plumes Nino 3.4 average around +3.6 and the RONI near +3.0.

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Euro seasonal only goes out thru December, but looks pretty similar to Cfs2 vs Cansips weather-wise. Very wet along the east coast. I'll take it with my inland location at 600'asl. 

[snowman19]

Here comes the constructive interference boost from a budding +IOD

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@LakePaste25 @donsutherland1 Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was. And a new downwelling Kelvin wave has begun to form in response to the big WWB we are seeing:


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring forecast barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.

 

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring forecast barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.

 

We can probably assume that the W pac warm pool will finally slosh east if those model output verify. You don’t get a +4C ONI Nino without it doing so.