2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

So we have a model temperature forecast for 7 months into the future and it's against an 1880-1920 mean. lol

They dig and dig to find this stuff lol.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO.

I would never count on a "good" winter in a strong nino. But I also wouldn't just assume that the stronger the nino the worse the winter will be. There are other pieces of the puzzle besides enso.

[A-L-E-K]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

can we have a separate thread for winter talk?

still coping with the winter cancel

[forkyfork]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

still coping with the winter cancel

my area is currently in its hottest developing nino may heat wave on record

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is in no way 2009-2010...not remotely relevant. You have brought that up a couple of times...it's moot. It was much weaker and the warmth was relegated to the western flank...not to mention we had just passed solar min with a neg QBO.

Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol

 I’ve got the solution. If you want to minimize the chance for a warmer than normal winter where you live, just move down south and your chances will fall substantially!

[LakePaste25]

41 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

still coping with the winter cancel

The key is to just roll with it. Fire up the BBQ on Christmas and make something good

[forkyfork]

49 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

still coping with the winter cancel

also hurricane season cancel

[LakePaste25]

Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.

[TheClimateChanger]

28 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.

Incredible. Already as many or more 90+ days than 54 years - and it's only May 18. That's more than 1 in 3 years, and probably more like 1 in 2 or at least 2 in 5 if you back out recent decades where fewer than 2 90+ days has been exceptionally uncommon.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

39 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.

Oddly enough, 1991 was a pre-nino May (although there would be the major volcano the following month that made sure the nino event behaved weirdly).

[snowman19]

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

still coping with the winter cancel

Actually I see it as the opposite. There were a few very disappointed with how last winter turned out cold/wintry. Didn't sit well with them at all so with a big nino coming and better odds for a milder winter, the excitement cant be contained.

We will still get winter regardless, but if you want the mild strong el nino pattern, you can say goodbye to any winter sun. No winters are grayer in the already gray Great Lakes than mild nino ones.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Just recorded our 2nd earliest 90+ degree day on record at ERI. The earliest was 5/16/1991. Definitely not typical for a pre Nino May.

A few warm days in any given May are normal. The monthly departure is still colder than avg. Looks like all pre-stromg nino Mays had a max in the mid to upper 80s here. 

[snowman19]

 

From a South American Met:

 

 

 

 

^ Translation:

“This is the magnitude of how deep—and therefore how long-lasting—the warming of the ocean floor near our coasts is. We're talking about 100 meters or more in its most significant part and nearly 500 in its verifiable depth. All that warm anomaly is advancing toward the South American coastal edge.
There's little the APS can do, as noted (APS=South Pacific Anticyclone)
We haven't seen anything like this since 1997. This is one of the reasons, perhaps the most relevant one, why there's so much information about a major #ElNiño event on the horizon.”

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^You were right about it shifting east, like other Strong Nino's. I have seen cold pools get stuck in the middle-west for the last few years, and kind of thought this year could follow the same trend with Nino 4 getting warm so early. 

[snowman19]

^You were right about it shifting east, like other Strong Nino's. I have seen cold pools get stuck in the middle-west for the last few years, and kind of thought this year could follow the same trend with Nino 4 getting warm so early. 

Yea, this one is developing as a “Costero”/coastal (east-based, EP) El Niño event. According to the South American Mets, we haven’t seen anything like this since 1997

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Whereas the warmth this time around looks to setup where? (Or is it too early to tell) Trying to know if I shoild expect a 72-73/97-98 torch or not, lol

Everywhere.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

A few warm days in any given May are normal. The monthly departure is still colder than avg. Looks like all pre-stromg nino Mays had a max in the mid to upper 80s here. 

I wouldn’t say that coming 1 degree short of the all-time record high for May is “normal”

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would never count on a "good" winter in a strong nino. But I also wouldn't just assume that the stronger the nino the worse the winter will be. There are other pieces of the puzzle besides enso.

That isn't what I said. However, I will discount a winter that is anything like 2009-2010 this coming season.  Does that mean very little snowfall? No, not necessarily, but it will be warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

also hurricane season cancel

TBH, I think I would bet on this season being more impactful for the US than last season.