2026-2027 Strong El Nino

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't see any literature supporting a 2-3 month lag.

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You probably won’t find much literature related to the Northern Stream intensity across the NP following SSWs since it’s a bit of a niche topic.

Plus this stronger Northern Stream only emerged since 2018-2019 and might be to short of an interval to gain much interest for research. 
 

 

I'm going to make up stuff too and then say you wont find much (probably because its bunk).

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm going to make up stuff too and then say you wont find much (probably because its bunk).

Well, everything was initially "bunk", until it wasn't. I have no issue with it, as long the presenter is transparent about it. He admitted it's a pioneer concept, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's incorrect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have learned the hard way to not mock alternative viewpoints. I know I teased Chuck about the Cool ENSO following strong El Nino push back, but that was just because the data is supportive of it right now. He could ultimately be right, but we will need to confirm that posthumously...hence my sarcasm.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm going to make up stuff too and then say you wont find much (probably because it’s bunk).

You still haven’t apologized for your fake criticism of my guess that NYC, LGA, and JFK would struggle to reach 50” of snow which I made several years back.

[MarcmmKU]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Hmm while im not as familiar with east coast climate, that seems pretty much impossible to get a total shutout in new England. Shitty compard to climo, yes, but shutout or even close, never. Im in SE Michigan, i turn 43 next week and the least snowy winter Detroit has recorded during my lifetime was 23.4" in 1997-98. 2023-24 was right there at 23.5". Go north in Michigan and snow towns were calling 2023-24 with its 60, 80, 100" a "non-winter". So all of this worry about the worst case scenarios is STILL relative to one's climo. 

Even IF its a strong or super nino, many other factors come into play too. So I can say with 100% confidence that any area north of NYC will not be shutout.

Yeah "shutout" is relative. If Stowe VT gets, say 80" in a winter, that's considered a shutout for them. I would consider 2015-2016 basically a shutout for the new england.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think when you look at December 2015 alone, it was an anomalous configuration for a super Nino. The lack of a strong southern stream in the SE US allowed storms to cut, so you had both this bad combo of a pac jet extension to the west coast combined with a Nina-like SE ridge configuration. Compare this to December 1997 where you have a strong southern stream extending all the way across the southern US, which is the more canonical Nino outcome. Just giving 1 example of how we can do better than 15-16. 

 

December 2015 was unique since it was the first time we had a strong MJO 5 with a super El Niño due to the record WPAC warm pool up until that time for such a strong El Niño. 

So those two forces combining created the historic +13 December which was warmer than many Novembers were around NYC.

Luckily, a great blocking pattern emerged leading to the historic snow event around NYC in late January. Plus NYC had their first below 0° reading since 1994 on Valentine’s Day.

We had continuation of this much stronger WPAC warm pool theme for the 2023-2024 event. But more spread out winter warmth across the season than one month being some much warmer than the others like in 2015-2016.

No great blocking pattern in 2023-2024 so the seasonal snowfall was a disappointment for many. With the strongest MJO 4-7 activity in January and February. This was the 2nd time that such a strong El Niño had robust MJO activity in this region due to how far west the record +30 C warm pool extended in the Pacific.

 https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html#:~:text=Observations show that the western,MJO-related convection was enhanced.

Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced.

When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

[roardog]

I would think Nino 4 being so warm in recent Ninos results in different pattern outcomes as the forcing would be altered compared to your traditional cool Nino 4 strong El Niño. This is why I’m not sure a replica of 97-98 is necessarily on the way. That doesn’t mean it would be a good winter but I think just that fact alone is important unless of course it cools off by then. 

[snowman19]

The new CANSIPS…just started playing catch up:
 

 

You don’t get better ocean/atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) than this:

 

 

[roardog]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new CANSIPS…just started playing catch up:
 

 

You don’t get better ocean/atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) than this:

 

 

I know you believe a super Nino is coming. What is your forecast? Give a range of what you think the peak will be for fun.  FYI. I read today that Bastardi thinks it will be a top 5 Nino. It looks like you’re agreeing with him. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I would think Nino 4 being so warm in recent Ninos results in different pattern outcomes as the forcing would be altered compared to your traditional cool Nino 4 strong El Niño. This is why I’m not sure a replica of 97-98 is necessarily on the way. That doesn’t mean it would be a good winter but I think just that fact alone is important unless of course it cools off by then. 

Even if a 97-98 SSTA replica was on the way, I would still predict a pacific jet dominated winter with potential for 1-2 big coastal or SE snowstorms later in the winter. These are individual big ticket events that cannot be predicted months, or even several weeks in advance. 

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You still haven’t apologized for your fake criticism of my guess that NYC, LGA, and JFK would struggle to reach 50” of snow which I made several years back.

EWR cleared 50". Central park had some dubious measurements, especially with the December storms, and they stopped measuring after 9 am during the February KU when some of the heaviest rates of the storm occured... Wouldn't be surprised if they also easily cleared 50" of snow. 

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

EWR cleared 50". Central park had some dubious measurements, especially with the December storms, and they stopped measuring after 9 am during the February KU when some of the heaviest rates of the storm occured... Wouldn't be surprised if they also easily cleared 50" of snow. 

NYC was very close to JFK and LGA in staying under 50”. So even if there was a small undermeasurement, it would have been closer to 45” and not 50”.

For NYC along with JFK and LGA they need a winter average temperature near 32.0° or lower just to have a chance at a 50” season. While it’s necessary, it’s not always sufficient. That’s what happened this season.

ISP was able to have a 50”+season in 2017-2018 without NYC, JFK, and LGA averaging near freezing. Same for EWR coming closer to 50” in 2020-2021 than other local stations during another milder than average winter. 

ISP and EWR tend to get heavier snowfall totals than NYC, JFK and LGA, due to the best banding often setting up just west of the Hudson and out across Long Island.

It’s on rare occasions like January 2016 and February 2006 that the jackpot band sets up directly over or near NYC, JFK, and LGA. 

So this was the first winter in 11 years that NYC averaged near 32° as the winters have warmed so much after the 2015-2016 global temperature baseline jump. It’s uncertain when the next one will occur. Since the challenge for NYC to reach 50” arises from a shrinking pool of winters near 32° as the climate warms. But I think that there could be a small chance that it could happen. 
 

NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	45.6
CT	GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW	CoCoRaHS	45.5
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	45.4
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	45.4
NY	BELLMORE 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	45.1
NJ	WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE	CoCoRaHS	45.0
NJ	PALISADES PARK 0.2 WNW	CoCoRaHS	44.9
NJ	NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE	CoCoRaHS	44.8
CT	MYSTIC 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	43.9
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	43.4
NY	CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW	CoCoRaHS	43.1
NY	LINDENHURST 1.0 NE	CoCoRaHS	43.1

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

I know you believe a super Nino is coming. What is your forecast? Give a range of what you think the peak will be for fun.  FYI. I read today that Bastardi thinks it will be a top 5 Nino. It looks like you’re agreeing with him. 

I actually think it ends up as a top 3 super El Niño. IMO it peaks at over +2.5C (ONI and RONI) in the November/December time frame. I also believe it’s going to be an east-based/East Pacific event

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bncho]

8 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It all comes down to the blocking pattern. Not all strong el ninos are duds. If we get a blocking pattern like 2009-10, then we may just get a very good winter. However, if we get a blocking pattern (or lack thereof) like 2015-16 or 2023-24, then we're more than likely going to get a torch.

Please correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t 15-16 have a pretty long period of blocking from mid-January into February? And the very warm December skewed the winter temperature?

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Yeah "shutout" is relative. If Stowe VT gets, say 80" in a winter, that's considered a shutout for them. I would consider 2015-2016 basically a shutout for the new england.

Yeah shutout may not be the best choice of words, I took it literally lol.

2015-16 was a better snow season here than 1997-98 or 2023-24. 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, roardog said:

I would think Nino 4 being so warm in recent Ninos results in different pattern outcomes as the forcing would be altered compared to your traditional cool Nino 4 strong El Niño. This is why I’m not sure a replica of 97-98 is necessarily on the way. That doesn’t mean it would be a good winter but I think just that fact alone is important unless of course it cools off by then. 

100%. Some are relying/hoping too much for the warmest possible scenario and im just not buying it at this time.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

New CPC monthly outlook is going with El Nino precip pattern

[Stormchaserchuck1]

TAO/Triton trying to pop +5c subsurface below Nino 1+2. It might be taking shape in the east over the next few weeks. Snowman19 was right about the Kelvin wave making it all the way across. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'll take that the Nov Stratosphere warming effected in 60+ days, but not the March one effecting late April NAO. March is typically +15 days, while Nov can be +40-45 days as a mean (but can range from +15-65 days). 

[roardog]

New Cansips doesn’t really have a strong Nino pattern for winter at least not starting in January. It looks more like a late 70s cold weak Nino like pattern. 

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am happy that we got one of the earliest SSWs on record back in late November. It was a big reason that this was the first winter with below average temperatures and above average snowfall in 11 years around NYC Metro.

It’s possible that if the SSW had occurred later in the season, then with the lag could have resulted in the benchmark track coming too late in March when temperatures would have been more marginal for heavy snows along the coast.

As it was the SSW occurred in late November with a 2-3 month lagged response for the BM KU track to materialize.  December snows were all Northern Stream clippers.

I think what has been more intriguing to me has been the SSW formations and the results. The last two have been massive wave 1 approaches to an SSW event. While this last year can be considered an SSW it was not due to a major heat flux like we traditionally would see from these events. It was in tandem with the 500mb pattern of a slow build up of atmospheric ridging that eventually coupled, not a lot of warming was involved with this one. Sort of a bottom up approach from the typical quicker top down events. We actually had something fairly similar happen this year to what occurred in 2009 where the early SSW was disturbing the SPV and thus keeping it weaker overall at the start of the season but in 2009/10 we had a large heat flux later on in the year. That second more prominent SSW event with heat flux completely obliterated the SPV for the season leading to what we saw that year of an overly extended winter and we just so happened to have the precip aspect work in our favor.

Maybe this large bubbling of Wave 1 activity giving us these SSW's is newer in the climate of a warming world but would like to see how things progress in the near future. I don't think wave 2 events are done for but it has been pretty difficult to get one to actually occur. 

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't see any literature supporting a 2-3 month lag.

There tends to be a lag from early season SSW events I'm not sure about the 2-3 month number but there is a lag into effects downstream from those.

vtn_50_2025_merra2.pdf vtn_50_2009_merra2.pdf

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is new to me. 2-3 month lagged response??

One thing I will need to look at when doing my post season analysis next week is the connection of +WPO to the more active Pac jet, as last season was strongly -WPO. It may be that this analysis is difficult to do on a seasonal level, and it needs to be analyzed on a weekly basis. Additionally, I'm sure it's not a perfect correlation (increased PAC jet strength/+WPO), either.

@bluewave I was stunned to see that this past season actually averaged +WPO (.44 DJFM)...I would have bet my life that it was -WPO, but only March was. December, January and February were marginally +WPO, but essentially neutral. Now I feel better about my previous work connecting +WPO to the more active jet, as this makes more sense. We had more variability this season, which is why it wasn't strongly positive like previous years in recent memory...this allowed for the cold, but the +WPO in the mean continued to correlate to a more active jet, which is likely why we only saw one major coastal. The big January event was a huge SWFE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I think what has been more intriguing to me has been the SSW formations and the results. The last two have been massive wave 1 approaches to an SSW event. While this last year can be considered an SSW it was not due to a major heat flux like we traditionally would see from these events. It was in tandem with the 500mb pattern of a slow build up of atmospheric ridging that eventually coupled, not a lot of warming was involved with this one. Sort of a bottom up approach from the typical quicker top down events. We actually had something fairly similar happen this year to what occurred in 2009 where the early SSW was disturbing the SPV and thus keeping it weaker overall at the start of the season but in 2009/10 we had a large heat flux later on in the year. That second more prominent SSW event with heat flux completely obliterated the SPV for the season leading to what we saw that year of an overly extended winter and we just so happened to have the precip aspect work in our favor.

Maybe this large bubbling of Wave 1 activity giving us these SSW's is newer in the climate of a warming world but would like to see how things progress in the near future. I don't think wave 2 events are done for but it has been pretty difficult to get one to actually occur. 

There tends to be a lag from early season SSW events I'm not sure about the 2-3 month number but there is a lag into effects downstream from those.

vtn_50_2025_merra2.pdf 23.12 kB · 0 downloads vtn_50_2009_merra2.pdf 21.43 kB · 0 downloads

Interesting....the other two early reversals were 1981 and 1968...the latter featured strong blocking throughout the season and the former had a blocky January.

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@bluewave I was stunned to see that this past season actually averaged +WPO (.44 DJFM)...I would have bet my life that it was -WPO, but only December was. January and February were marginally +WPO, but essentially neutral. Now I feel better about my previous work connecting +WPO to the more active jet, as this makes more sense. We had more variability this season, which is why it wasn't strongly positive like previous years in recent memory...this allowed for the cold, but the +WPO in the mean continued to correlate to a more active jet, which is likely why we only saw one major coastal. The big January event was a huge SWFE.

We tend to box things in a lot with these oscillations which is unfortunate but understand why it is done. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting....the other two early reversals were 1981 and 1968...the latter featured strong blocking throughout the season and the former had a blocky January.

I think 23-24 didn't pan out in the way we had hoped even given similar SSW styles to this past year was the SPV was just that much stronger that year so it needed quite a bit more to really knock it down. Again unfortunate but it is what it is sometimes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'll take that the Nov Stratosphere warming effected in 60+ days, but not the March one effecting late April NAO. March is typically +15 days, while Nov can be +40-45 days as a mean (but can range from +15-65 days). 

Ahhh...okay, thanks. This makes more sense, then. Chris is probably right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

I think 23-24 didn't pan out in the way we had hoped even given similar SSW styles to this past year was the SPV was just that much stronger that year so it needed quite a bit more to really knock it down. Again unfortunate but it is what it is sometimes.

2023 had an early late November/early December reversal??

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@bluewave I was stunned to see that this past season actually averaged +WPO (.44 DJFM)...I would have bet my life that it was -WPO, but only December was. January and February were marginally +WPO, but essentially neutral. Now I feel better about my previous work connecting +WPO to the more active jet, as this makes more sense. We had more variability this season, which is why it wasn't strongly positive like previous years in recent memory...this allowed for the cold, but the +WPO in the mean continued to correlate to a more active jet, which is likely why we only saw one major coastal. The big January event was a huge SWFE.

Ray,

 Please provide your link to the monthly WPO. 
Something seems off. TIA

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Ray,

 Please provide your link to the monthly WPO. 
Something seems off. TIA

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data