2026-2027 Strong El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Lol, what's up with these June contract temperatures? 

It's probably an error. I haven't played around with it yet, but I will probably start keeping a record to see if there is an advantage vs the market. May is 62F - I'm going to say below. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

What are your thoughts for north country? Obviously vermont always gets more than the cities but does next winter really have the potential to be as much of a stinker for the ski areas as 2015-2016? 

Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What would you say is the chance of a continued El Nino in 27-28?  5%? 10%? I would say 5-10%

[MarcmmKU]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless. 

Fair. I guess the concern is that there’s basically no floor with super strong el ninos. Can be a total shutout almost even for people at very high latitudes and elevations. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-NAO has been correlating with an East Coast trough more 23-24, 24-25, 25-26 vs 18-19 to 22-23. NAO is a little more important this coming Winter, I think. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

As the Kelvin Wave has continued to progress east, TAO/Triton has +4-5c anomalies now under Nino 1+2. Should be interesting to see if it surfaces in the east, along the American coast in the next few weeks. Still to be determined whether it's an east-based, west-based, or basin-wide event- I'm going toward basin-wide. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Fair. I guess the concern is that there’s basically no floor with super strong el ninos. Can be a total shutout almost even for people at very high latitudes and elevations. 

Hmm while im not as familiar with east coast climate, that seems pretty much impossible to get a total shutout in new England. Shitty compard to climo, yes, but shutout or even close, never. Im in SE Michigan, i turn 43 next week and the least snowy winter Detroit has recorded during my lifetime was 23.4" in 1997-98. 2023-24 was right there at 23.5". Go north in Michigan and snow towns were calling 2023-24 with its 60, 80, 100" a "non-winter". So all of this worry about the worst case scenarios is STILL relative to one's climo. 

Even IF its a strong or super nino, many other factors come into play too. So I can say with 100% confidence that any area north of NYC will not be shutout.

[snowman19]

Here comes the EPAC TC season…..and another WWB….
 

[BlizzardWx]

If the west Pacific is able to have a sustained active season, particularly into the fall, frequent typhoon recurves may help to break up the warm water anomalies over there. Perhaps it would help in nudging us towards a +PDO. I guess we will see though. 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

If the west Pacific is able to have a sustained active season, particularly into the fall, frequent typhoon recurves may help to break up the warm water anomalies over there. Perhaps it would help in nudging us towards a +PDO. I guess we will see though. 

Just having a big typhoon season would be a big change compared to recent years. 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I always joke about this, but that emboldened line is the kiss of death from you. I read that, and instantly knew that the next line would be something casting doubt on the notion of a +PDO accompanying the El Nino. Haha

I can't imagine this being another 2023 in terms of the PDO. I think if it remains negative, it will be marginal. Just talking about the actual DM mean index reading....not trying to imply that the winter can't still be awful for the east.

Yeah, I get the joking. It’s good to keep things light in here. We switched out of the traditional -PDO +PDO relationship following the big warming east of Japan after the 2015-2016 El Niño.This really increased following 2018-2019.

So the current models are forecasting more of basin-wide warming where we get a zone of warm SSTs from Japan to the Baja. We saw that this past winter going into the spring with the record +PMM and remaining warm pool east of Japan. 

We will probably have to revisit this paper again after this event and see where things stand.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02482-z

Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as a key index linking basin-scale climate variability to marine ecosystem changes in the North Pacific. However, recent apparent breakdowns of PDO–ecosystem correlations have raised concerns about the stability of the mode and its continued relevance in a warming climate. Here we show that basin-wide warming now overwhelms PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability, although neither the PDO’s spatial pattern nor its strength have changed. We introduce the pan-basin pattern as a complementary index to describe the non-stationary SST baseline of the North Pacific. Regional SSTs increasingly reflect the superposition of these two signals, providing an explanation for weakened or inverted PDO–ecosystem correlations. Future use of the PDO index in management will require discerning the effects of internal dynamics from those of absolute changes in SST as extreme and no-analogue ocean conditions driven by interacting natural variability and anthropogenic warming become more common.

We demonstrate that the leading mode of interdecadal North Pacific SST changes recently transitioned from the PDO to a pattern of unidirectional change across the entire basin (that is, the PBP). For the first prolonged period of the recent observational record, a negative ‘cold’ PDO phase failed to coincide with cool SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific—a harbinger of the increasing non-stationarity in relationships between the PDO and regional SSTs (Fig. 3d,e). Despite explaining proportionally less variance, ongoing robust PDO variability indicates that drivers of the mode’s SST anomaly footprint have been resilient to warming through the early twenty-first century (Figs. 1 and 2). As the PDO is a statistically emergent pattern integrating several processes (for example, stochastic Aleutian Low forcing, teleconnections with the tropics, and ocean Rossby waves)^4,47, its future evolution will depend on how these contributing processes are cumulatively impacted by warming across timescales.

Although the historical physical drivers of North Pacific decadal variability are relatively well understood^4,48, the biophysical mechanisms through which ecosystems respond are less so. The PDO has historically served as a reliable proxy for SST in much of the North Pacific. However, as regional SST anomalies continue to diverge from those historically expected based on PDO signals (Fig. 3d–g), there will be a growing need to distinguish impacts associated solely with SST anomalies from those produced by the dynamics related to the PDO (for example, changes in upwelling, transport or source waters). For example, since the 2021 transition into the negative PDO phase (Figs. 3d,e and 4b,c), warming is superimposed on a cold PDO regime in the eastern North Pacific, leading to confusion in the community regarding the expected biological effects²⁶. Further investigation into the mechanisms behind PDO–ecosystem relationships should prioritize discernment of temperature-specific effects on biology from the effects of other physical or biogeochemical processes. Given the ongoing stability of the PDO pattern, the PDO index probably remains a useful indicator of North Pacific climate variability, but perhaps with its ecological relevance in how it reflects changing dynamical processes rather than regional SST anomalies.

As the PBP–temperature baseline climbs in concert with global ocean warming, local and regional SST anomalies that would historically have been associated with an exceptionally strong PDO and/or El Niño (for example, >2 standard deviations) will occur more frequently. For example, constructive signals between internal variability and secular warming from 2014–2020 contributed to warm temperature extremes during this period (for example, ref. ⁴⁹). Quantification of the range of internal variability related to the PDO and other modes will be needed to constrain the potential for climate extremes resulting from interaction of internal variability and anthropogenic warming, leveraging approaches such as palaeoclimate records, long model simulations or large model ensembles^50,51. Constraining internal variability and stability is also necessary for understanding the future of PDO impacts beyond the North Pacific (for example, theorized impacts on hydroclimate in western North America and northeastern Asia)^{52,53,54,55,56,57} and its role in modulating global climate.

Global-scale trends and internal variability are now both important determinants of North Pacific climate^48,58, with the influence of pan-basin warming surpassing that of the PDO within the past decade. The combination of long-term warming and natural variability has already begun to produce profound physical and ecological changes throughout the North Pacific, including severe marine heatwaves with ecosystem-wide impacts^59,60, rapid sea ice declines and novel weather patterns in the Alaskan Arctic⁶¹, and new human–wildlife conflicts⁶². Management decisions based on historical baselines will fail to capture increasingly important emergent interactions between anthropogenic warming and internal variability. This increased uncertainty in associations between basin-scale variability and regional responses underscores the need for management approaches to incorporate dynamical modelling and prediction of North Pacific climate (for example, ref. ⁶³), rather than relying on historical relationships with basin-scale indicators as predictors. Given that the internal variability of the North Pacific is especially strong, a similar emergence of pan-basin warming over internal variability is probably already occurring in other basins, suggesting that the recontextualization of indices of climate variability under warming is needed widely.

 

[GaWx]

 Snapshot current RONI equivalent appears to me to be fairly steady near +0.3C (temporary pause).

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I get the joking. It’s good to keep things light in here. We switched out of the traditional -PDO +PDO relationship following the big warming east of Japan after the 2015-2016 El Niño.This really increased following 2018-2019.

So the current models are forecasting more of basin-wide warming where we get a zone of warm SSTs from Japan to the Baja. We saw that this past winter going into the spring with the record +PMM and remaining warm pool east of Japan. 

We will probably have to revisit this paper again after this event and see where things stand.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02482-z

Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as a key index linking basin-scale climate variability to marine ecosystem changes in the North Pacific. However, recent apparent breakdowns of PDO–ecosystem correlations have raised concerns about the stability of the mode and its continued relevance in a warming climate. Here we show that basin-wide warming now overwhelms PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability, although neither the PDO’s spatial pattern nor its strength have changed. We introduce the pan-basin pattern as a complementary index to describe the non-stationary SST baseline of the North Pacific. Regional SSTs increasingly reflect the superposition of these two signals, providing an explanation for weakened or inverted PDO–ecosystem correlations. Future use of the PDO index in management will require discerning the effects of internal dynamics from those of absolute changes in SST as extreme and no-analogue ocean conditions driven by interacting natural variability and anthropogenic warming become more common.

 

We demonstrate that the leading mode of interdecadal North Pacific SST changes recently transitioned from the PDO to a pattern of unidirectional change across the entire basin (that is, the PBP). For the first prolonged period of the recent observational record, a negative ‘cold’ PDO phase failed to coincide with cool SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific—a harbinger of the increasing non-stationarity in relationships between the PDO and regional SSTs (Fig. 3d,e). Despite explaining proportionally less variance, ongoing robust PDO variability indicates that drivers of the mode’s SST anomaly footprint have been resilient to warming through the early twenty-first century (Figs. 1 and 2). As the PDO is a statistically emergent pattern integrating several processes (for example, stochastic Aleutian Low forcing, teleconnections with the tropics, and ocean Rossby waves)^4,47, its future evolution will depend on how these contributing processes are cumulatively impacted by warming across timescales.

Although the historical physical drivers of North Pacific decadal variability are relatively well understood^4,48, the biophysical mechanisms through which ecosystems respond are less so. The PDO has historically served as a reliable proxy for SST in much of the North Pacific. However, as regional SST anomalies continue to diverge from those historically expected based on PDO signals (Fig. 3d–g), there will be a growing need to distinguish impacts associated solely with SST anomalies from those produced by the dynamics related to the PDO (for example, changes in upwelling, transport or source waters). For example, since the 2021 transition into the negative PDO phase (Figs. 3d,e and 4b,c), warming is superimposed on a cold PDO regime in the eastern North Pacific, leading to confusion in the community regarding the expected biological effects²⁶. Further investigation into the mechanisms behind PDO–ecosystem relationships should prioritize discernment of temperature-specific effects on biology from the effects of other physical or biogeochemical processes. Given the ongoing stability of the PDO pattern, the PDO index probably remains a useful indicator of North Pacific climate variability, but perhaps with its ecological relevance in how it reflects changing dynamical processes rather than regional SST anomalies.

As the PBP–temperature baseline climbs in concert with global ocean warming, local and regional SST anomalies that would historically have been associated with an exceptionally strong PDO and/or El Niño (for example, >2 standard deviations) will occur more frequently. For example, constructive signals between internal variability and secular warming from 2014–2020 contributed to warm temperature extremes during this period (for example, ref. ⁴⁹). Quantification of the range of internal variability related to the PDO and other modes will be needed to constrain the potential for climate extremes resulting from interaction of internal variability and anthropogenic warming, leveraging approaches such as palaeoclimate records, long model simulations or large model ensembles^50,51. Constraining internal variability and stability is also necessary for understanding the future of PDO impacts beyond the North Pacific (for example, theorized impacts on hydroclimate in western North America and northeastern Asia)^{52,53,54,55,56,57} and its role in modulating global climate.

Global-scale trends and internal variability are now both important determinants of North Pacific climate^48,58, with the influence of pan-basin warming surpassing that of the PDO within the past decade. The combination of long-term warming and natural variability has already begun to produce profound physical and ecological changes throughout the North Pacific, including severe marine heatwaves with ecosystem-wide impacts^59,60, rapid sea ice declines and novel weather patterns in the Alaskan Arctic⁶¹, and new human–wildlife conflicts⁶². Management decisions based on historical baselines will fail to capture increasingly important emergent interactions between anthropogenic warming and internal variability. This increased uncertainty in associations between basin-scale variability and regional responses underscores the need for management approaches to incorporate dynamical modelling and prediction of North Pacific climate (for example, ref. ⁶³), rather than relying on historical relationships with basin-scale indicators as predictors. Given that the internal variability of the North Pacific is especially strong, a similar emergence of pan-basin warming over internal variability is probably already occurring in other basins, suggesting that the recontextualization of indices of climate variability under warming is needed widely.

 

Kind of analogous to ENSO in that the PDO cycle itself is still operating as it always has, however, the baseline warming is limiting it's ability to drive the weather pattern around the hemisphere.

Interesting.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kind of analogous to ENSO in that the PDO cycle itself is still operating as it always has, however, the baseline warming is limiting it's ability to drive the weather pattern around the hemisphere.

Interesting.

This past winter was really interesting in that we got the warm pool east of Japan interacting with the warm pool off of California and the Baja. So it prevented us from getting a strong +PDO like we had in 1995-1996 with that weak La Niña.

So while this was the best winter of the 2020s so far from NYC to Boston, the overpowering Northern Stream was only able to relax from late January to late February.

This prevented the wall to wall historic snowy outcome from November 1995 to April 1996. Notice how much stronger the Northern Stream was this past winter compared to 1995-1996. 

My guess is that the warm pool east of Japan in concert with the much warmer climate may have increased  the Northern Stream just enough to take the 1995-1996 historic snows off the table. But we still were able to get the outstanding February KU before the Northern Stream returned for March. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The actual PDO-Strong El Nino connection is not as strong as you would think. Here is the strongest events, it's pretty close to neutral - bigger cold pool being hugging, right outside the ENSO warm SSTs, I'd say more in the North Pacific High area (-NOI).

Fair enough, but all else being equal, I would still bet on +PDO developing during a stronger El Nino....especially given the past few events have been accompanied by -PDO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This past winter was really interesting in that we got the warm pool east of Japan interacting with the warm pool off of California and the Baja. So it prevented us from getting a strong +PDO like we had in 1995-1996 with that weak La Niña.

So while this was the best winter of the 2020s so far from NYC to Boston, the overpowering Northern Stream was only able to relax from late January to late February.

This prevented the wall to wall historic snowy outcome from November 1995 to April 1996. Notice how much stronger the Northern Stream was this past winter compared to 1995-1996. 

My guess is that the warm pool east of Japan may have increased  the Northern Stream just enough to take the 1995-1996 historic snows off the table. But we still were able to get the outstanding February KU before the Northern Stream returned for March. 
 

Agreed, there were some competing forces. I have also mentioned that last season still had a notable dearth of true coastals, February blizzard not withstanding. However, we were still able to produce above average snowfall because it was consistently so anomalously cold. 

I think it was a combination of factors....I agree CC is playing a hand, but it's also important not to get carried away with over attribution. There are other reasons last season was not a 1995 redux....most notably, the solar cycle was somewhat more hostile and there wasn't as much high latitude blocking. There was indeed a far amount last season given the high solar/strong -QBO combo, but 1995 featured one of the more impressive seasonal blocking displays on record given the ascending solar phase shortly after min. That being said, I do agree 1995 was a decent analog in some respects...it was one of my main ENSO analogs.

I did try to address all of this in my write-up.

The Limitation of Traditional Conceptualizations In A Warming Climate

 

The Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI) attempts to remove the trend due to global warming in an effort to produce a measure that is of more direct relevance to changes in tropical convection driven by SST anomalies, rather than the general warming around the globe. This is similar to the issues addressed with respect to the original PDO patterns in that the general background warming alters these traditional relationships. Just as the west Pacific warm pool enhances the general cold phase of the Pacific despite the general warming along the coast of the western CONUS, it also strengthens the proclivity for the MJO to frequent the MC in a similar fashion to canonical La Nina despite any competing forces. In this case, the competing force is perhaps some heightened convection and vertical ascent in the vicinity of the dateline relative to what would normally be expected for a cool ENSO event. Thus it is probably unreasonable to expect as consistently of a cold pattern as seen in an older analog, such as 1995-1996, due to the increased baseline tendency for MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions. Note the absence of subsidence in the vicinity of the dateline in the traditional weak and east-based La Niña composites.

 

 

However, the most recent weak and east-based events are not devoid of this Modoki like subsidence in this area, rather it is just more subdued. 

 

This is indicative of considerable periods of MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions, albeit less pronounced than in a canonical La Niña that is more west-based. This is also illustrated by the aforementioned increase in the Pacific jet over time.

 

How this manifests in terms of the RONI is that these modern La Niña events often have stronger RONI values due to the west Pacific warm pool accentuating the cool ENSO influence.

 

 

This is what feedbacks into the pattern that reenforces the cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan that embodies the +WPO regime, and strengthens the jet.

 

 

Below is the progression over the past quarter of a century in the north Pacific relative to the intensity of the Aleutian low, as the attendant Hadley Cell has continued to expand northward.

 

 

 

 

Note that this western Pacific warmth was less pronounced in the older La Nina analog composite, which is why the jet was weaker in the mean.

 

Given that the 2017 La Nina had an ASO RONI value of -.71 and ultimately peaked at -1.24(.53), and the ASO 2021 value was -.91 and descended to -1.23 (.32), the anticipated peak range from the current ASO value of -.78 is between -1 and -1.2. This range is essentially a compromise between the slightly lower range suggested by the aforementioned analogs, and current guidance, which is supportive of a slightly higher peak of -.9, which has been inching lower.

 

 The forecast range is on the periphery of weak and moderate designation, although it will likely be considered weak due to both the paltry ONI and 90 day SOI of 6.47, as well as a lack of the discernible Pacific pressure dipole that is characteristic of well established cool ENSO.

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agreed, there were some competing forces. I have also mentioned that last season still had a notable dearth of true coastals, February blizzard not withstanding. However, we were still able to produce above average snowfall because it was consistently so anomalously cold. 

I think it was a combination of factors....I agree CC is playing a hand, but it's also important not to get carried away with over attribution. There are other reasons last season was not a 1995 redux....most notably, the solar cycle was somewhat more hostile and there wasn't as much high latitude blocking. There was indeed a far amount last season given the high solar/strong -QBO combo, but 1995 featured one of the more impressive seasonal blocking displays on record given the ascending solar phase shortly after min. That being said, I do agree 1995 was a decent analog in some respects...it was one of my main ENSO analogs.

I am happy that we got one of the earliest SSWs on record back in late November. It was a big reason that this was the first winter with below average temperatures and above average snowfall in 11 years around NYC Metro.

It’s possible that if the SSW had occurred later in the season, then with the lag could have resulted in the benchmark track coming too late in March when temperatures would have been more marginal for heavy snows along the coast.

As it was the SSW occurred in late November with a 2-3 month lagged response for the BM KU track to materialize.  December snows were all Northern Stream clippers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am happy that we got one of the earliest SSWs on record back in late November. It was a big reason that this was the first winter with below average temperatures and above average snowfall in 11 years around NYC Metro.

It’s possible that if the SSW had occurred later in the season, then with the lag could have resulted in the benchmark track coming too late in March when temperatures would have been more marginal for heavy snows along the coast.

As it was the SSW occurred in late November with a 2-3 month lagged response for the BM KU track to materialize.  December snows were all Northern Stream clippers.

This is new to me. 2-3 month lagged response??

One thing I will need to look at when doing my post season analysis next week is the connection of +WPO to the more active Pac jet, as last season was strongly -WPO. It may be that this analysis is difficult to do on a seasonal level, and it needs to be analyzed on a weekly basis. Additionally, I'm sure it's not a perfect correlation (increased PAC jet strength/+WPO), either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

What are your thoughts for north country? Obviously vermont always gets more than the cities but does next winter really have the potential to be as much of a stinker for the ski areas as 2015-2016? 

Does it have the potential to be as poor as 2015? At this stage, absolutely. Are there still avenues to a better season? Sure.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is is new to me. 2-3 month lagged response??

One thing I will need to look at when doing my post season analysis next week is the connection of +WPO to the more active Pac jet, as last season was strongly -WPO. It may be that this analysis is difficult to do on a seasonal level, and it needs to be analyzed on a weekly basis. Additionally, I'm sure it's not a perfect correlation (increased PAC jet strength/+WPO), either.

Yeah, late November SSW didn’t translate into weaker Northern Stream until late January and especially February. This allowed the STJ to lead more allowing the KU BM event in late February. But the effect quickly wore off in March and we reverted to the 2020s mean of warm and snowless Marches with a dominant Northern Stream.

Plus the NAO has been swinging more from one extreme to the other over time. So we weren’t able to get the extended November to May -NAO of 1995-1996.

Several  overlapping warming influences working against a 1995-1996 repeat. Especially the overpowering ridge in the Southwest resulting in the 2nd warmest winter for the CONUS.
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, late November SSW didn’t translate into weaker Northern Stream until late January and especially February. This allowed the STJ to lead more allowing the KU BM event in late February. But the effect quickly wore off in March and we reverted to the 2020s mean of warm and snowless Marches with a dominant Northern Stream.

Plus the NAO has been swinging more from one extreme to the other over time. So we weren’t able to get the extended November to May -NAO of 1995-1996.

Several  overlapping warming influences working against a 1995-1996 repeat. Especially the overpowering ridge in the Southwest resulting in the 2nd warmest winter for the CONUS.
 

 

I haven't see any literature supporting a 2-3 month lag.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It all comes down to the blocking pattern. Not all strong el ninos are duds. If we get a blocking pattern like 2009-10, then we may just get a very good winter. However, if we get a blocking pattern (or lack thereof) like 2015-16 or 2023-24, then we're more than likely going to get a torch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

It all comes down to the blocking pattern. Not all strong el ninos are duds. If we get a blocking pattern like 2009-10, then we may just get a very good winter. However, if we get a blocking pattern (or lack thereof) like 2015-16 or 2023-24, then we're more than likely going to get a torch.

Yea, all of the strong El Nino events that worked out in terms of an active east coast winter had a pronounced period of NAO blocking...only real argument to be made is 2002, but that is significantly weaker than this event should be.

[LakePaste25]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does it have the potential to be as poor as 2015? At this stage, absolutely. Are there still avenues to a better season? Sure.

I think when you look at December 2015 alone, it was an anomalous configuration for a super Nino. The lack of a strong southern stream in the SE US allowed storms to cut, so you had both this bad combo of a pac jet extension to the west coast combined with a Nina-like SE ridge configuration. Compare this to December 1997 where you have a strong southern stream extending all the way across the southern US, which is the more canonical Nino outcome. Just giving 1 example of how we can do better than 15-16. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think when you look at December 2015 alone, it was an anomalous configuration for a super Nino. The lack of a strong southern stream in the SE US allowed storms to cut, so you had both this bad combo of a pac jet extension to the west coast combined with a Nina-like SE ridge configuration. Compare this to December 1997 where you have a strong southern stream extending all the way across the southern US, which is the more canonical Nino outcome. Just giving 1 example of how we can do better than 15-16. 

 

Yup...this is why I have theorized that we actually want a RONI equal to, or exceeding the ONI. The lagging RONI is indicative of competing cool ENSO AAM. This point it what was lost on me in 2015 and 2023.