2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, roardog said:

We don’t even need a super Nino for winter to get cancelled around here. The last two winters were cancelled by the usual crowd and they were the best winter in years for much of this board. 

Euro shows a stretched PV in the long range. We never had a very strong El Nino like this so no one knows what wil happen.

[EasternLI]

Judah Cohen or no Judah Cohen. If el nino wishes to terminate the wave train by rebuilding these Ural Blocks like this, the PV will keep taking future shots... Looks entirely possible if not probable and it's been a mainstay feature on ensembles too. What does that ultimately mean for this year? Up for debate. Just noticing, but it's not meaningless. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Not your area

Ill make sure to bump this

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ill make sure to bump this

Alot of worthy bump material in this thread.

[MJO812]

JB

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Judah Cohen

Agree with this overall sentiment.....I have been pounding the idea that the high latitudes are going to be pretty interesting this season.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro shows a stretched PV in the long range. We never had a very strong El Nino like this so no one knows what wil happen.

Indeed as it on today’s Euro Weeklies gets down to +14 in early Nov, weakest run yet. Nothing earth shatteringly weak but interesting, regardless:

[snowman19]

[forkyfork]

none of that is going to matter when there's a vortex locked over the northeast pacific extending into the west coast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino's. The last Super Nino, 23-24, had 4 separate SSW's. This one is looking barely above average lol. +QBO may be a hindrance to SSWs this cold season but since El Nino's favor warmings, they kind of cancel each other out. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino's. The last Super Nino, 23-24, had 4 separate SSW's. This one is looking barely above average lol. +QBO may be a hindrance to SSWs this cold season but since El Nino's favor warmings, they kind of cancel each other out. 

Agree. Said it yesterday, El Niño aside, IMO (could be wrong of course), the other antecedent/background conditions; strong +QBO, now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere, descending solar off last year’s max, high geomag, +IOD are all hostile to SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter. Going to have to wait and see what happens. The fact that we actually have people hyping to borderline hysteria on twitter right now that strat warmings never happen during El Niños is completely laughable and asinine. But when you look at which accounts are doing it, it makes perfect sense….

[bluewave]

Just remember that a weaker SPV was also a feature with the 1997-1998 event. There was also an impressive area of stratospheric warmth above the Urals to Barents region.

It’s the overpowering Pacific which is the main feature when east based El Niños get this strong.

So it’s not uncommon to see this during super El Niño events as we also had something similar with the weaker 2023-2024 super El Niño.
 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

I posted this yesterday.  Keep up.