2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[raindancewx]

October is verifying ~10F warmer than the Canadian forecast on Sept 30 in parts of the South so far. I'd be wary of the outlooks for Dec-Mar. They still have no skill.

CPC has the South warm in the 6-10 and 8-14 at high confidence - so pretty big bust.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just not a very good model. 

I'm surprised that you can have knowledge some index patterns, analog correlations and such and outperform seasonal models. An example is every seasonal showing -100 to -200dm +PNA in the N. Pacific this Winter. Just lazy ENSO input

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Way out there but the sub seasonals begin to show more of a cool season Nino H5 pattern in November. 

 

 

The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Models have an Aleutian low, and somewhat strong Western Canada ridge, +PNA pattern Hrs 324-384. Let's see if it holds, last time they showed a big AL for 3 days from this range and it didn't verify. 

Edit: 0z weakened the pattern

[snowman19]

[sebastiaan1973]

The latest Glosea6. 

[Terpeast]

Euro and AI Euro ensembles are switching to -NAO around Oct 22, fwiw, after +NAO for several weeks

[LakePaste25]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

 

The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol

The fact that models are trying to usher in the pattern in November when we typically don’t see it until later in December the earliest is actually attributed to it being the strongest Nino on record. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I actually did an update on the IOD early this morning….it strengthened rapidly to +0.88 in the last week. It likely peaks solidly over +1 next month

Glad you're back.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I agree about 30 mb being off in amplitude but the patterns as you’ll see below are very similar. Thus, that allows me to still predict with a very high level of confidence that a solid +QBO is in store for all of this winter.

 

 Here are the tabular 30 mb QBO values since Jan ‘25 for the table that stopped updating (PSL):

2025   12.11   10.55   11.82    6.94   -4.59  -13.72  -19.99  -22.28  -24.26  -24.65  -25.35  -26.92
2026  -25.51  -23.13

 

 To compare, here are the tabular 30 mb values from the QBO link that @EasternLIposted this morning for the still updating site (ATMO) (bolded are the ones we can’t compare to old table, 3/26+)

2025   10.3      7.3      8.4      4.7     -16.5   -25.4     -27.8     -29.2    -30.5    -30.8    -30.0     -29.7.  
2026     -29.2  -31.2  -30.9   -7.0    5.7
   7.5        13.3     11.5    17.6
 

ATMO graph closeup for 2023+: jibes 100% with their textual values (actually the entire graph back to 1953 jibes):

 My observations in comparing the 30 mb tables of ATMO to PSL since 1953:

-ATMO sometimes is slightly faster than PSL in switching phases, but the average is only a half month faster in switching from positive to negative (minimal). So, phase switching times are very similar.

-ATMO almost always lower than PSL when negative: I counted 20 cycles out of 32 with ATMO negative dips <-30 vs none for PSL

-ATMO least negative dip -25.0 in 8/1954 when PSL dipped only down to -14.53, also their least negative dip since 1953

-Lowest ATMO: -35.5 in 9/1996 (when PSL was -26.02)

-Lowest PSL: -29.55 in 11/2005 (when ATMO was -33.3)

-ATMO higher peak than PSL 29 cycles out of 33: I count 17 cycles out of 33 with ATMO peaks of 16+ vs none for PSL

-Highest ATMO: +22.0 in 1/1953 (when PSL was -2.94)

-Highest PSL: 15.62 in 6/1995 (when ATMO was 15.1)

-So, ATMO cycles have higher amplitude than PSL though very similarly timed

-# of months in positive periods in ATMO lasting 10+ months: 32 of 33. Longest on record is 18 months.

———————

 The last stat tells me with near 100% confidence that all of winter ‘26-7 will be positive on ATMO. Why? The first positive month in the current phase was May of ‘26. The 10th month would be Feb of ‘27. Also, 22 of 33 positive phases lasted 12+ months with the avg length of a positive phase on ATMO being 13 months.
 
 Thus, my best guess as to the final month in the current positive phase per ATMO is within one month of May of ‘27. More than likely Feb of ‘27 will on ATMO still be >+10. The latest I can see the last positive month is Oct of ‘27 based on the 18 month record.

I wasn't doubting +QBO......just saying, I would like a streamline of homogenous data.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Following up on my last post (QBO):

 Based on my expectation of each of DJF being at +8+ QBO and also within a mature +QBO phase as opposed to near the start of it, here are the best QBO/ENSO analogs in order of quality taking into account the timing within the +QBO phase, the QBO amp, and the Nino strength:

-2015-6 strongest analog: ~identical QBO timing/similar QBO amp, super-Nino

-1982-3 super-Nino and similar QBO amp but QBO 3 month later start of + phase

-1957-8 not quite super-Nino, QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase and weaker JF amp

-1987-8 Nino only mod & 2nd year and QBO 3 month later start of + phase

-2006-7 easily weakest of these analogs because only weak Nino and QBO 2 month earlier start of + phase along with only +1 Feb QBO

Agree on 2015 being strongest....nice solar match, as well...like 2014 was last year, but I didn't explicitly use it as an analog due to ENSO, but it definitely informed my expectation for strong +TNH last season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

October is verifying ~10F warmer than the Canadian forecast on Sept 30 in parts of the South so far. I'd be wary of the outlooks for Dec-Mar. They still have no skill.

CPC has the South warm in the 6-10 and 8-14 at high confidence - so pretty big bust.

Totally agree on the CANSIPS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

Too bad he copyrighted it...I wanted to steal that forecast, said no one with a modicum of genuine meteorological insight.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/10/2026 at 4:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is being updated:
30MB:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

50MB:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If we have a +QBO, then November (at least the beginning of the month) is going to be very warm in the Eastern US. The last 3 +QBO years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all featured record warmth in the early part of November.

[LakePaste25]

Typical short-term temporary drop of 3.4/r3.4 due to the evaporative cooling induced by strong WWBs. Once that settles in a week or two, they should start shooting to the moon again.