2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[forkyfork]

51 minutes ago, bncho said:

what are we even doing at this point

 

 

 

mass snow autism psychosis 

[cmillzz]

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

mass snow autism psychosis 

The weather will do what it does, regardless of our expectations. We can analyze the patterns, but getting emotionally attached to a particular outcome doesn’t really serve a purpose. Unfortunately, some people become so invested in what they want to happen that when the pattern suggests otherwise, objectivity gives way to defensiveness.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

mass snow autism psychosis 

We know you think it will not snow this winter. 

You are against the world in that regard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

mass snow autism psychosis 

Autism, sure....psychosis I think is a better fit for you, who ignores any reference to previous incorrect forecasts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, cmillzz said:

The weather will do what it does, regardless of our expectations. We can analyze the patterns, but getting emotionally attached to a particular outcome doesn’t really serve a purpose. Unfortunately, some people become so invested in what they want to happen that when the pattern suggests otherwise, objectivity gives way to defensiveness.

I only see one side here engaging in name calling, though....."defensiveness" is fine if you competently defend your position. I just presented a wealth of information on why I feel the mean convective forcing will be a bit west of what many may suspect this season, lending to some pattern variability....it was never addressed, instead followed by some vapid, mindless insults. I understand and accept the factors that may lead to a vey mild and relatively snowless season, but I don't feel that is reciprocated....if you disagree, then fine.

Same crap last year, and the offenders never address the "L", instead, perpetually resisting any opportunity for growth and opting to assume the same, close-minded approach yet again.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

The weather will do what it does, regardless of our expectations. We can analyze the patterns, but getting emotionally attached to a particular outcome doesn’t really serve a purpose. Unfortunately, some people become so invested in what they want to happen that when the pattern suggests otherwise, objectivity gives way to defensiveness.

Exactly. But the irony is that the person you quoted that to is the one who needs to hear that more than anyone in this thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Fortunately there are still alternative ways to view how the QBO is doing. The FU Berlin site (which you and some others may remember) was one of the better datasets until those updates were discontinued. Thankfully the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology has taken that same dataset and decided to continue the updates to it from where they left off. The raw data is also available there in the same format the Berlin site used to use. Here's the link if anyone is interested:

 

https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/english/807.php

 

I'm having difficulty accessing the data...I didn't have that issue on the other site, but on the site you seem to have to download it, which is what I am having trouble with.

[GaWx]

 If the IOD guru Adam were still posting (will he ever come back?), I’d now be asking him about the potential very strong +IOD that’s been expected this autumn. It clearly is positive, but it isn’t strong per BoM (at least not yet as it still has til Nov to see if it will jump way up based on the past):

 As of 10/4/26, the weekly was +0.6. Note that the peak for 2026 so far was actually way back on 3/8/26 (+0.9). Then it fell back to 0 in May, but was then followed by a general rise til now.

 How does 2026’s +0.6 compare to some past Oct 4ths for Ninos/warm neutral along with 2 Ninas that had an unusual +IOD?

2026 +0.6

2023 +1.8

2019 +1.8

2018 +0.1

2015 +1.1

2014 +0.1

2012 +0.1

2011 +0.6 (mod Nina)

2009 -0.3

2008 +0.2 (weak Nina)

 ——————

 As one can see, Nino 2023 and warm neutral 2019 both had triple 2026! Also, Nino 2015 was nearly double. In addition, Nina 2011 was the same! (Aside: Nino 2009 was still negative although it had an unusually very late IOD peak of +0.7 on 1/4/2010.)

 So, as I said, 2026 isn’t exactly setting the world on fire so far regarding a +IOD. I’ll keep following.

 Any thoughts?

————————

Weekly IOD 2008+:

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025

[EasternLI]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm having difficulty accessing the data...I didn't have that issue on the other site, but on the site you seem to have to download it, which is what I am having trouble with.

They seem to have downloadable archive files in addition to 3 text files which can be viewed directly on a web browser. With the downloadable ones also containing the text files. I thought that was weird too. Not sure what the purpose of that is, but I'm sure they have their reasons. The following 3 links are the text links which will be displayed on a web browser.

 

Full list of data (since 1953): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/qbo.dat

 

Singapore data only (since 1987): https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore.dat

 

Singapore data for 2026 only: https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/data/singapore2026.dat

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Yes, but if you use the slide function to put the forecast in motion, the cooler waters are making a bee-line east. Should they continue after the end of the forecast period (7/27), you'd probably at least end up with a La Nada next winter, if not a weak Niña imho. I guess the question then is why wouldn't the cooler waters continue east? 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=global&pkg=ssta&runtime=2026101100&fh=1

We don’t know the specific details that far out. But the latest Euro continues the record WWBs at least into next March. This is why the model is trying to develop a 2nd Nino 1+2 warming peak near the end of the run like the CFS.