2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-42.37 SOI today. 

4th consecutive day <-30

September is -23 to date. 

[EasternLI]

6 hours ago, bncho said:

 

Yeah, while not impressive at all that's still nice to see. Models were hinting that something like that was possible last week and it is coming to fruition. Aside from them traversing through the warm pool east of Japan. They can also be a catalyst to invigorate an Aleutian low. Not saying this one is any of that but in general. We want to see that. So let's see if we can get anything else to do that moving forward. And maybe we can in early October if that trough in east asia is real because the tropical activity probably will be.

[GaWx]

Recent 3 day mean CFS’ have cut way back on the degree of cold in Feb:

9/16-18

Compare that to this from 8/7-9:

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Recent 3 day mean CFS’ have cut way back on the degree of cold in Feb:

9/16-18

Compare that to this from 8/7-9:

2 reasons not to worry. First, the Cfs2 site has remained steady with temps it's been advertising for JFM. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Second reason, the October Cansips comes out in only 11 days! Lol 

[michsnowfreak]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

2 reasons not to worry. First, the Cfs2 site has remained steady with temps it's been advertising for JFM. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Second reason, the October Cansips comes out in only 11 days! Lol 

On the satellite wx page that was posted a while back, you can see the daily CFS run and the 10-run average. As youd expect, it changes wildly every day.

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

2 reasons not to worry. First, the Cfs2 site has remained steady with temps it's been advertising for JFM. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Second reason, the October Cansips comes out in only 11 days! Lol 

Also, the TT maps use colder 1984-2009 climo instead of the CFS site’s 1991-2020.

The TT 3 day (12 run) avg does jump around more than the CFS site 10 day (40 run) avg. Regardless, I haven’t seen any 3 day avg Feb recently nearly as cold as those record cold Febs that were on some Aug 3 day means in the SE to S Plains. Then again, that degree of cold was hardly believable especially that far out. They were dreamable for me but not believable. I’ll keep following the trends of both the TT 3 day means and the CFS site 10 day means.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

On the satellite wx page that was posted a while back, you can see the daily CFS run and the 10-run average. As youd expect, it changes wildly every day.

Pretty sure that very cold run isn't happening.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

On the satellite wx page that was posted a while back, you can see the daily CFS run and the 10-run average. As youd expect, it changes wildly every day.

The main CFS site actually has 40 run averages (10 days x 4 runs/day).

[LakePaste25]

Right now I’m leaning towards a fairly torchy winter with *maybe* 1 salvageable month on the back side where it’s just slightly above normal. Can’t really ignore that every analog that was supposed to give us below normal temps has busted warm thus far into mid september, and there’s no signs of October being cooler than normal yet. 

[LakePaste25]

Much of this winter warmth will likely be driven by overnight lows IMO due to the active pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Much of this winter warmth will likely be driven by overnight lows IMO due to the active pattern. 

CC is a nutshell...yes, the days are obviously warming, but it's more pronounced at night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can't find an analog that has forcing as expansive throughout the tropical Pacific during the month of December as this year is forecast.....1983 looks like a good match for January, as it begins to erode a bit on the eastern flank...the image below is reflective of VP on the color scheme, with the contour representing preci rate to really hone in on the best forcing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can't find a match to this, though.

1997 is closest....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Going on strictly VP, nothing compares.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2016 looks okay for Feb....

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Much of this winter warmth will likely be driven by overnight lows IMO due to the active pattern. 

El ninos are usually even more overcast than usual in our already overcast winter climate. That automatically keeps lows up. Though I still expect a subzero night or two.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The main CFS site actually has 40 run averages (10 days x 4 runs/day).

Have a link to the actual main site?

[LakePaste25]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC is a nutshell...yes, the days are obviously warming, but it's more pronounced at night.

Yeah for record highs in the winter at least, the classic way to do that around here is a Great Lakes Cutter tracking north and west of here. rainy/wet snow/slop mix coastals without cold air are more of a warm overnight low type of deal, and those are what I expect. December 2015 was the weird one because we actually did get lows going well NW despite being a super El Niño. 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Have a link to the actual main site?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml