2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's the August run...September is UGLY.

Do you know exactly what that scale represents?  Does -1 mean -1 inch a month or for the entire 3 month period? I would guess the entire period. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Do you know exactly what that scale represents?  Does -1 mean -1 inch a month or for the entire 3 month period? I would guess the entire period. 

3 month period.

[jaxjagman]

To muxh crap already going against this winter,You already have the -PDO at the end of August -1.1 which should be substainally positive right now in a strong NINO and the other is the strong WQBO which should have a chance ATM to be a brick SPV

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

3 month period.

Hell, it has me at 2" under. That would be the most for me in 6 years. I'll take it.

[jaxjagman]

QBO looks just as brutal,its not even relative closer to its own COD where more planetary waves could seemingly effect the SPV,it looks fairly strong right now into winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

To muxh crap already going against this winter,You already have the -PDO at the end of August -1.1 which should be substainally positive right now in a strong NINO and the other is the strong WQBO which should have a chance ATM to be a brick SPV

Yea, the PV will probably be pretty stout, but there is more than one way to skin a cat....ie produce intervals of high latitude blocking. 

[jaxjagman]

Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hell, it has me at 2" under. That would be the most for me in 6 years. I'll take it.

Looking at the scale, you are right.....the colors make it look awful, but it's actually pretty reasonable...has me at like 5-6" under average, which is like mid-high 50s. Let me amend earlier what I said about a compromise.....def. prefer the EURO snowfall, though it could be light across the deep interior of NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the PV will probably pretty stout, but there is more than one way to skin a cat....ie produce intervals of high latitude blocking. 

 

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Just to add in 82-97-15,there has never been a SSWE into winter,left that out which should be noted

Well aware....

[40/70 Benchmark]

SSW are overrated....they are often feast or famine....again, you don't need the PV to be decimated to get blocking. That is a misconception. W QBO obviously favors a stout PV, which makes it more impervious to heat propagation, so these seasons are prone to stratospheric reflection that can still get the job done. See latter January-early Feb 1983.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

45 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

QBO looks just as brutal,its not even relative closer to its own COD where more planetary waves could seemingly effect the SPV,it looks fairly strong right now into winter

Warm Dec

[michsnowfreak]

The excitement of Fall is getting here. Regardless of what winter brings, Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year for many of us. Its the perfect distraction for the pre-winter model circus, especially in a strong Nino year.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I anticipate a very mild first half, with a stout PV, PAC jet and +NAO....a shift should occur during January which will begin as an AK ridge acting as the catalyst for the first real arctic air of the season, and also ultimately act to trigger big NAO blocking in Feb via wave 1 reflection. 

You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN

[TriPol]

Everyone should remember... in winter, it only takes one storm. One blizzard, threading the eye of the needle, is all we need to have a great season. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The excitement of Fall is getting here. Regardless of what winter brings, Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year for many of us. Its the perfect distraction for the pre-winter model circus, especially in a strong Nino year.

Yep I cant wait for hoodie and sweat pants season.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, TriPol said:

Everyone should remember... in winter, it only takes one storm. One blizzard, threading the eye of the needle, is all we need to have a great season. 

Yep just like Jan 2016.  That's one of the analog years everyone is throwing around ( 2015-2016 ).

Good thing is that the STJ will be very active so there shouldn't be a shortage of storms even if they are rain or a mix bag.

[bluewave]

New all-time weekly Nino 1+2 ONI at +4.6. This surpasses the previous record set back in June 1983 of +4.5. The highest 1997-1998 was able to achieve was only +4.0. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

02SEP2026     25.3 4.6

13AUG1997     25.0 4.0 

29JUN1983     27.0 4.5 

[GaWx]

On 9/4/2026 at 1:04 PM, GaWx said:

Nino 1+2 (keep in mind that this is non-relative) had a strong rise yesterday. Get ready for a tweet from Adam, Abraham, and/or others addressing this saying record breaking yada yada yada. Keep in mind though that records from 1982-3 and 1997-8 are based on weeklies, not dailies. Also, highest relative WEEKLY in 1983 was +4.6 and in 1997 was +4.1. Let’s see where the current calendar week relative 1+2 on Monday. It won’t be anywhere near +4.6 although it may get close to +4.0.

 

 

 The latest relative weekly for Nino 1+2 comes in about where I expected, +3.9. This for the 2nd week in a row is at a record high (back to 1981) for the week, warmer than 1997’s +3.6 and 0.4 warmer than the previous week’s +3.5.

 The highest relative 1+2 on record for any week is +4.6 (1983) and the highest relative in 1997 for any week was +4.1, which was set twice.

 Regarding the relative for other regions, Nino 3 warmed barely while 3.4 and 4 stayed the same. The changes overall mean an even more E based Nino than the prior week showed:

  9AUG2026         3.2        2.5        1.8        0.0
 26AUG2026         3.5        2.6        1.8        0.1
 02SEP2026         3.9        2.7        1.8        0.1

 For comparison:

03SEP1997         3.6        2.8        2.0        0.4

 

 So, early Sept. ‘26 is slightly more E based than the previous most E based early Sept. (back to 1981) of 1997.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

You're definite talking about IMBY,while you had some freak strorm spawn up into the GOM into Feb of 83 the SE in most parts ran 4C AN

Point is those "freak" storms are pretty common in this magnitude of El Nino....Feb 1983, January 2016 (which only grazed me), Dec 1997. The deck will be stacked in favor of a big fish, sorry I can't guarantee it will rake everyone.

The southeast doesn't look +4 to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The latest relative weekly for Nino 1+2 comes in about where I expected, +3.9. This for the 2nd week in a row is at a record high (back to 1981) for the week, warmer than 1997’s +3.6 and 0.4 warmer than the previous week’s +3.5.

 The highest relative 1+2 on record for any week is +4.6 (1983) and the highest relative in 1997 for any week was +4.1, which was set twice.

 Regarding the relative for other regions, Nino 3 warmed barely while 3.4 and 4 stayed the same. The changes overall mean an even more E based Nino than the prior week showed:

  9AUG2026         3.2        2.5        1.8        0.0
 26AUG2026         3.5        2.6        1.8        0.1
 02SEP2026         3.9        2.7        1.8        0.1

 For comparison:

03SEP1997         3.6        2.8        2.0        0.4

 

 So, early Sept. ‘26 is slightly more E based than the previous most E based early Sept. (back to 1981) of 1997.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Yea, it's gone more east-based than I had envisioned, NVM guidance...which was way off. I don't love that, but like I have been saying, I don't think it makes much of a difference when it's this strong. If anything, it probably helps to limit any residual MC influence that would destructively interfere with potential big storm windows. So, while that probably puts the nail in the coffin on any hopes of avoiding a pretty mild season, it may paradoxically help in terms of landing that big fish.

I may have to shift from a basin-wide to east-based composite, which makes it more likely that the mean ridge ends up se of Hudson Bay.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's gone more east-based than I had envisioned, NVM guidance...which was way off. I don't love that, but like I have been saying, I don't think it makes much of a difference when it's this strong. If anything, it probably helps to limit MC that would destructively interfere with any big storm windows. So, while that probably puts the nail in the coffin on any hopes of avoiding a pretty mild season, it  may paradoxically help in terms of  landing that big fish.

I may have to shift from a basin-wide to east-based composite, which makes it more likely that the mean ridge ends up se of Hudson Bay.

Seems like modeling has been putting the ridge SE of Hudson Bay for a while. You can see it in the monthly temp forecasts off the Cfs2 as well as the snowfall forecast off the Euro with reduced snow along the coast from NE down into NC.

Cfs2 temps

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Seems like modeling has been putting the ridge SE of Hudson Bay for a while. You can see it in the monthly temp forecasts off the Cfs2 as well as the snowfall forecast off the Euro with reduced snow along the coast from NE down into NC.

Cfs2 temps

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

The CANSIPS and JMA have been further NW, but those models are off this year, I think. My extra tropical Pacific composite also hints at that possibility, but it's looking less likely now. We'll see....still time for region 4 to get back in the game and it should, eventually.

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The CANSIPS and JMA have been further NW, but those models are off this year, I think. My extra tropical Pacific composite also hints at that possibility, but it's looking less likely now. We'll see....still time for region 4 to get back in the game and it should, eventually.

Once the Niño starts to weaken, there should be a return of the sst warmth back west with the trade's influence increasing. Of course, it won't be overnight, which is why a weakening of the Niño sooner than later improves our chances of decent snowfall imho. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Once the Niño starts to weaken, there should be a return of the sst warmth back west with the trade's influence increasing. Of course, it won't be overnight, which is why a weakening of the Niño sooner than later improves our chances of decent snowfall imho. 

Absolutely....this is what happens in my composites. The ridges is displaced SE and makes for an awful December, before it lifts northward more into the NAO domain after El Nino peaks and collapses westward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is a section from my polar domain write-up in July.

 

The most glaring commonality between the QBO composite and both the solar and intense El Niño composites is the pronounced ridging stretching from the northeastern CONUS and into central Canada, which obviously is a rather mild signal for the forecast area in the seasonal mean. However, it has been mentioned on numerous occasions that neither of these winter composites are entirely bereft of high latitude blocking or even shorts bursts of severe winter weather. This is evident in the bifurcation of the composite below.

This is a signal that is emergent among some seasonal guidance.

What is clear is that as El Niño begins to wane and perhaps shift somewhat to the west as the season evolves, the Gulf of Alaska low begins to retrograde, which allows the central Canadian-Northeastern CONUS ridge to lift up into the NAO domain. This mid-to-latter season progression is the crux of the volatility and Modoki-like episode(s) that have been referenced with the respect the overall characterization of the polar domain. The primary risk here for a transition to a significantly colder pattern is that the block is more oriented towards the Eastern portion of the NAO domain, which is especially evident in the more meager El Niño analogs that did not have the very cohesive Gulf of Alaska low that is synonymous with El Niño. 

 

The inference is that the development of the more Modoki like intervals during the second half of the season is contingent on the progression of the mid latitudes of the northern Hemisphere growing more redolent of traditional El Niño as boreal winter ensues, which should take place given the forecast for this warm ENSO event to reach an unprecedented magnitude as Mother Nature gives her best shot at the redistribution of that stagnant west Pacific warm pool. A prime example of the failure of this effort is the earlier referenced MC-oriented El Nino event of 2023-2024, which actually maintained a North Pacific ridge more characteristic of cool ENSO, with a split low on either side. This essentially allowed ridging to persist overt the northeastern CONUS as if it were a cool ENSO season.

However, it has made clear when discussing the implication of El Niño on the polar domain that the developing uber-El Nino event is unlikely to be as biased towards the MC-end of the spectrum as the 2023-2024 event due to it's extreme intensity, and instead end up more akin to the 2015-2016 event, which had a more subdued MC influence and ultimately did indeed boast a bonafide Gulf of Alaska low. 

 

This is consistent with the expectation for the polar domain throughout out the 2026-2027 winter season. Largely void of high latitude blocking throughout the first half of the season before some intervals of a more disturbed polar domain mixed in throughout the second half. This is a theme that is consistent throughout the vast majority of the analogs, which are littered with notoriously wintry periods such as March 1958, February 1983, March 2005 and latter January into February 2016, a stretch which featured the historic east coast blizzard of January 22-24 and the record cold of Valentine's  Day. This shift towards fleeting bouts of  severe winter weather later in the season is consistent with research concerning the behavior of the higher latitudes during the westerly phase of the QBO, which concluded that the polar vortex is less prone to disruption from Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) overall, but grows more susceptible later in the season per what is referred to as the Holton-Tan relationship. This is due to the fact that the default direction of the zonal winds in the polar region is from the west, thus a westerly QBO is consistent with this and is thus less likely to lead to disruption, or a complete reversal of these winds in the case of a technical SSW (Holton, Tan 1980), until later in the season if at all. This is largely because it is theorized that westerly winds in the stratosphere inhibit the development of a stronger Aleutian high, which is more conducive to the development of said SSWs that entail the full reversal of zonal winds that subsequently leads to either a splitting or displacement of the PV. The inference here is that although a positive NAO and stronger than average PV are favored in the DJFM seasonal mean per previously referenced research on years descending from solar max and westerly QBO, the shear magnitude of warmth throughout the entire ENSO basin should disrupt the antecedent MC regime enough to allow for at least some transient intervals of high latitude blocking and potentially severe winter weather later in the season, as El Niño peaks and potentially allows the Gulf of Alaska low to retrograde. Research by Gray et al, 2004 elaborates on this complex relationship between the solar cycle and the QBO phase.

[Keith Central PA]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.

December 1982 was very warm but it did snow in NYC in the middle of the month, which goes to show you when it comes to snowfall it's hard to predict.Of course it's hard to snow when the overall month is warm,but it can. it's December

[Keith Central PA]

December 12th 1982..then famous snowplow game in New England

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

December 12th 1982..then famous snowplow game in New England

I was watching Channel 7 DC 11pm weather segment (though I was living just south of BWI at the time but still watched DC wx forecasts along with Baltimore 's lol) and I noticed that the precip shield had expanded all the way into the WVA panhandle, which was a good 40 miles to my NW. And thought that was strange because the guy had just said the storm was to stay to our south. Then he said "hmmm, that precip is pretty far north for a miss" and I  thought Game On Baby!!