2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No it isn't, since the PDO has yet to respond to said record breaking El Niño.

It’s September. Other than CTKWs going up the west coast which takes care of a portion of the PDO, how else would an extratropical index flip without cool season extratropical storms? You need storms and an active cool season zonal jet to churn up that warm blob out in the middle of the N pac. 

[LakePaste25]

That area near Japan is probably cooked for the foreseeable future, which is one reason I would expect it to flip back to - next spring or summer. Too mu ch subsurface warmth there and a Nino for 1 year won’t eradicate that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

It’s September. Other than CTKWs going up the west coast which takes care of a portion of the PDO, how else would an extratropical index flip without cool season extratropical storms? You need storms and an active cool season zonal jet to churn up that warm blob out in the middle of the N pac. 

That isn't my point.....I'm not saying that it necessarily should have flipped by now, but considering what has gone on over the course of the past decade, nothing is a foregone conclusion with respect to to the PDO. I'm with you on that, but it's not a non-issue, as you seem to imply.