2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Prismshine Productions]

Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off.
-AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.
 

That was on me for not paying attention to the height lines

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, someone in the New England forum was trying to tell me were going to have a -PNA this winter...I was like, find a super El Niño that pulled that off.

-AO/+PNA means you can essentially eliminate the bottom dwelling seasons....even 1972 didn't. Now, maybe it will be bootleg, etc...but the season will average +PNA in the DJFM mean.

 

How funny would it be if we average +PNA in the seasonal mean, stemming from similarities in the arctic domain and not necessarily the equator. Just about everyone would miss it, assuming it's ENSO.

[GaWx]

This is the first time I recall seeing the white shading, which is warmer than a +5C anomaly, on the TAO surface maps. It is within the E section, in a narrow corridor just S of the equator and E of 110W.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like 9/2 is ~+0.40... should come in ~-0.10 for MJJAS. That would actually be our 2nd lowest NAO Winter in 14 years (CPC). I'll take the over on that (CPC), although there could be some ridging around 80-90N. 

My interpretation of that is volatility.....biased + first half, neutralish to perhaps even somewhat negative second half.....but AO should be negative.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

That was on me for not paying attention to the height lines

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Were you predicting -PNA for the season, though? What you are referring to is simply misinterpretation of a seasonal chart....I recall someone was telling me that the PNA would average negative. Anyway, NBD...I wasn't trying to call anyone out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How funny would it be if we average +PNA in the seasonal mean, stemming from similarities in the arctic domain and not necessarily the equator. Just about everyone would miss it, assuming it's ENSO.

What do you mean, a ridge extending down from the arctic through the west coast, rather than a more traidtional, El Nino-forced PNA ridge?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What do you mean, a ridge extending down from the arctic through the west coast, rather than a more traidtional, El Nino-forced PNA ridge?

Not part of the conversation's immediate history here but...   the EPO and PNA can sometimes be in the -EPO/+PNA tandem. 

When extreme enough, and fully physically realized on the actual hemispheric synoptic layout out, this results in the "cross polar flow" type.  This is synonymous with a deep layer cold conveyor that patterns from Siberia, across the (pre-CC explosion era) frozen expanse Arctic Ocean, down over and usually E of the Canadian Rockies ... into the NP and ultimately frosting oranges in Florida.

It's important to context that the longer term moment correlation between these indices is actually modestly positive.  So having a tandem -EPO/+PNA should be rarer than the means, and well ... we don't actually observe a bona fide Cross Polar Flow set up so often and there we go... 

As an aside, when time lags are applied to the indices, I'm not sure ( though suspect it is so - ) if there is a better negative correlation that is exposed.  Because I have observed countless times over 30 years of this crap, a -EPO --> +PNA over an ~ 3-5 day lapse. A time in which the EPO relaxes back to neutral aft of a +d(PNA).  It gives the allusion if not physical exposure of a planetary wave roll out of the N. Pacific.  This is not the same as cross polar flow. More like a "relay".  It's the more common type and regulates the periodicity of cold loading events into Canada.  For regions between the NP/GL-NE drape, the difference between a CPF hemisphere, vs this latter delivery, is probably less than meaningfully different - both showcase someone heaving a boiling cup of water to demo saturation vapor pressure causing half of it to explode into vapor, while the other half rings to the ground like shattered stemware.  Maybe the CPF is 7 deg colder in the core of the cold extreme or something but below -10 F either way, wtf cares...  

Just sayn' ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not part of the conversation's immediate history here but...   the EPO and PNA can sometimes be in the -EPO/+PNA tandem. 

When extreme enough, and fully physically realized on the actual hemispheric synoptic layout out, this results in the "cross polar flow" type.  This is synonymous with a deep layer cold conveyor that patterns from Siberia, across the (pre-CC explosion era) frozen expanse Arctic Ocean, down over and usually E of the Canadian Rockies ... into the NP and ultimately frosting oranges in Florida.

It's important to context that the longer term moment correlation between these indices is actually modestly positive.  So having a tandem -EPO/+PNA should be rarer than the means, and well ... we don't actually observe a bona fide Cross Polar Flow set up so often and there we go... 

As an aside, when time lags are applied to the indices, I'm not sure ( though suspect it is so - ) if there is a better negative correlation that is exposed.  Because I have observed countless times over 30 years of this crap, a -EPO --> +PNA over an ~ 3-5 day lapse. A time in which the EPO relaxes back to neutral aft of a +d(PNA).  It gives the allusion if not physical exposure of a planetary wave roll out of the N. Pacific.  This is not the same as cross polar flow. More like a "relay".  It's the more common type and regulates the periodicity of cold loading events into Canada.  For regions between the NP/GL-NE drape, the difference between a CPF hemisphere, vs this latter delivery, is probably less than meaningfully different - both showcase someone heaving a boiling cup of water to demo saturation vapor pressure causing half of it to explode into vapor, while the other half rings to the ground like shattered stemware.  Maybe the CPF is 7 deg colder in the core of the cold extreme or something by below -10 F wtf cares... 

Just sayn' ...

Yea, that is what I figured he meant. I don't think we'll see that in the mean, but definitely possible for shorter windows.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is what I figured he meant. I don't think we'll see that in the mean, but definitely possible for shorter windows.

To imagine that careening into the STJ over Texas, huh

ho man

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To imagine that careening into the STJ over Texas, huh

ho man

Usually in a warm ENSO of this magnitude, the GOA low is so prominent that it often bleeds into AK in the mean, so the season ends up predominately +EPO....BUT, one wild card is how that residual cool ENSO residue across the north Pacific parlays this season....yea, it will probably augment the Canadian ridge, but might it also mitigate the lower height leakage into AK, and potentially not bury the STJ quite as much as would be implied by the HOF-juggernaut El Nino composite??

Interesting....

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Usually in a a warm ENSO of this magnitude, the GOA low is so prominent that it often bleeds into AK in the mean, so the season ends up predominately +EPO....BUT, one wild card is how that residual cool ENSO residue across the north Pacific parlays this season....yea, it will probably augment the Canadian ridge, but might it also mitigate the lower height leakage into AK, and potentially not bury the STJ quite as much as would be implied by the HOF-juggernaut El Nino composite??

Interesting....

Definitely the rub ... whether ENSO is related or not, that 'bleeding into AK' is often a torpedo, and it's useful to note too because the model handling of the GOA is idiosyncratic; it's positive or negative interference in the actual state sends mid and extended range error. Smaller GOA errors in position seems toward a higher sensitive and a larger total response in whether cold conveyors orient more S or ... more importantly for cold/winter enthusiasts, deflects more E across the Canadian northern tier - regardless of CPF of or not. 

The latter aspect of La Nina hangover episodes is interesting, though.  The whole RONI aspect is also relevant here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Regardless of the total picture, there exists absolutely astronomical, extraordinarily high potential during shorter intervals that belies what should be a mild seasonal mean....the devil is in the details and it's easy to miss the period when all hell broke loose when you only view a snapshot composite of a winter's life. Almost akin to considering a middle-aged guy like me....46 yrs, old, decent career, 4 beautiful children and an aggregate of circumstances that embodies a ho-hum mid-life...sure, but when viewing a 46-year composite mean, it's easy to miss the US Marine that collected 2 OUIs and came within a toad's whisker of having it all end long before any of my kids were even so much as a glint in my eye.

[GaWx]

The summer of 2026 ended up with the 2nd strongest summer -SOI back to 1876!
 

Here are the 16 strongest -SOI summers. Note that while 1882 is way out of place with it being cold neutral, the rest are El Niños (with all but 1914 being moderate or stronger for their respective (later) peaks):

1896 (-22) strong

2026 (-21) progged super

1982 (-19) super

1882 (-18) cold neutral

1905 (-18) moderate

1997 (-17) super

1941 (-17) moderate

1940 (-16) strong

1987 (-16) moderate

2015 (-14) super

1965 (-14) super

1994 (-14) moderate

1914 (-14) weak

1977 (-14) moderate

1888 (-13) super

1972 (-12) super

[soadforecasterx]

Can some one provide me with the link to see this forecast? I was on the site looking around but could not find it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, soadforecasterx said:

Can some one provide me with the link to see this forecast? I was on the site looking around but could not find it. 

https://cyclonicwx.com/models/hovmoller/

[soadforecasterx]

Thank you, I am just trying to understand all of this better. So then it looks like things should start to pick up again heat wise over the next week. 

[GaWx]

 The NOAA August PDO came in at -1.11 vs July’s -1.35. This is the 2nd month in a row for which the NOAA monthly actually came in less negative than what the WCS dailies suggested (see image below). That is even more the case with August, for which the WCS averaged slightly lower than -1.5. This -1.11 compares to the significantly stronger -PDO of Aug of 2023 of -2.02:


 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

[PhiEaglesfan712]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NOAA August PDO came in at -1.11 vs July’s -1.35. This is the 2nd month in a row for which the NOAA monthly actually came in less negative than what the WCS dailies suggested (see image below). That is even more the case with August, for which the WCS averaged slightly lower than -1.5. This -1.11 compares to the significantly stronger -PDO of Aug of 2023 of -2.02:


 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

Do we now have a relative and a traditional PDO now (like we do with the ONI)?

This one shows July as -2.14 and August as -1.84:

 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Do we now have a relative and a traditional PDO now (like we do with the ONI)?

This one shows July as -2.14 and August as -1.84:

 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

I’m not aware of a relative PDO. Like the SOI and IOD, I don’t think relative is needed for these 3 indices because all 3 are based on differences between different areas that I assume largely cancel out any effect from GW.

 I do see why there are now two NOAA PDOs: yours is based on ERSST version 5 whereas mine is based on ERSST version 6, the newest version. How about that for adding to confusion? 
 
 With 6 being the newest ERSST, I assume that it is the most official for NOAA PDO now.

[forkyfork]

 

[LakePaste25]

The PDO index has none/negligible effect on the long wave pattern. There isn’t a really a reason to RONI it except for record keeping purposes. It’s a fully extratropical index. 

[LakePaste25]

Like yeah…the PDO might alter pacific storm tracks, but it’s on the scale of 0s to 10s of miles, not 100s to 1000s. Same way that Canadian snow cover might force baroclinicity southward, so an individual snowstorm might track over the turnpike rather than I-80. But it’s not going to stop a cutter from going to the Ohio valley. It’s a bit ridiculous that the PDO is being discussed so much in this thread when you actually have a record breaking Nino that *will* actually alter the long wave pattern by *thousands* of miles. 

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

Nino 1+2 is very warm, but Adam’s post:

-is ignoring the effect of GW on skewing Nino 1+2 upward in 2026 vs 1997. The highest relative weekly in 1997 was +4.1  (set twice). Relative values for Nino 1+2 are currently 0.5 or more cooler than the non-relatives. NOAA and other orgs have recently been using relative values as official because of the skewing caused by GW.
 

-He’s looking at yesterday’s daily rather than at a weekly average, which is what the historical data is based on.
 

-These OISST charts have recently been warmer than the released NOAA weeklies as has been noted in many posts since July.

-Let’s see what this Monday shows for relative Nino 1+2 averaged over this week. I doubt it will reach +4.1, but we’ll see. I’m guessing high 3s.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What do you mean, a ridge extending down from the arctic through the west coast, rather than a more traidtional, El Nino-forced PNA ridge?

Similarities to 2025. That's what I thought you meant when responding to my post. Edit: nevermind, I see the PNA was negative 3/4 months last year. We are also following 2024 close with the 90N Summer +AO and that had this DJF PNA

  1.70
2025   1.05   1.41

80-90N ridging in the Winter sometimes will pop a low south of it, over the Aleutian islands. That's what I mean by +PNA coming from the arctic

[LakePaste25]

As I said yesterday, despite the “pause” in Nino 3.4 in August, it has become significantly more east-based regardless.

 

 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

As I said yesterday, despite the “pause” in Nino 3.4 in August, it has become significantly more east-based regardless.

 

 

Indeed, it has become more E based despite a flat Nino 3.4 recently since Nino 3 has warmed some while Nino 4 has cooled some netting out to an essentially flat period for Nino 3.4.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Check out this cool water in the west - pretty large area with BN

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Like yeah…the PDO might alter pacific storm tracks, but it’s on the scale of 0s to 10s of miles, not 100s to 1000s. Same way that Canadian snow cover might force baroclinicity southward, so an individual snowstorm might track over the turnpike rather than I-80. But it’s not going to stop a cutter from going to the Ohio valley. It’s a bit ridiculous that the PDO is being discussed so much in this thread when you actually have a record breaking Nino that *will* actually alter the long wave pattern by *thousands* of miles. 

No it isn't, since the PDO has yet to respond to said record breaking El Niño.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

Thanks to forky, Adam @snowman19 is back! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Thanks to forky, Adam @snowman19 is back! 

He never left, X.