2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What was your Winter forecast for the Pacific in 2023? 

Index Value	Predicted '23-'24 DM   Value Range	Actual  '23-'24 DM Value	Forecast Error
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)	-.30 to -.60	-1.51	Biased .91 positive
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)	-.35 to -.65	+.55	Biased .90 negative
ENSO	OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide)	NDJ 2.0  EMI: .30	.01 degree too cool and one month too early.   Biased .30 West
(J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)	+.30 to +.60	-.04	Biased .34 positive
Arctic Oscillation (AO)	-.30 to -.60	-.10	Biased .20 negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)	+.10 to -.20	+.76	Biased .66 negative

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Index Value	Predicted '23-'24 DM   Value Range	Actual  '23-'24 DM Value	Forecast Error
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)	-.30 to -.60	-1.51	Biased .91 positive
Perennial North American Pattern (PNA)	-.35 to -.65	+.55	Biased .90 negative
ENSO	OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide)	NDJ 2.0  EMI: .30	.01 degree too cool and one month too early.   Biased .30 West
(J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO)	+.30 to +.60	-.04	Biased .34 positive
Arctic Oscillation (AO)	-.30 to -.60	-.10	Biased .20 negative
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)	+.10 to -.20	+.76	Biased .66 negative

Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM

Yea, the outlook overall was garbage, though...I misinterpreted the El Nino adjoining the west-warm pool as more of a Modoki influence, rather than MC, which is what it was. I learned so much from that bust, and from Chris.

[bluewave]

At least the start of September will show some similarity to 2023 and 2015. But the forecast is for a stronger Southeast ridge this time. Matches the summer theme of stronger mid-latitude 500 mb ridging than past developing super El Ninos.